CryptoRm

BTC - The Logic Focus
Is the Bitcoin 4-Year Cycle Broken? 📉 Or is this just the 'Great Reset' before the next massive leg up? Let's look at the facts. 👇"

The graph shows the likely scenario will be occurring in near future. Im more conservative, hence I pick scenario 2.

​📉 Why Scenario 2 is Likely , I call it The "Slow Grind"

1. Structural Resistance at $72,000

​Bitcoin has repeatedly failed to reclaim the $72,000–$74,000 zone throughout February. Technically, this area has flipped from "The Last Line of Defense" to a "Heavy Ceiling." Without a massive catalyst, BTC lacks the momentum to punch through this overhead supply, making a sideways "grind" more efficient for the market to reset.

2. Institutional "De-Risking" & ETF Outflows

​Unlike previous cycles, the "Big Money" is now a major factor.

​Fact: Spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen consistent outflows over the last few weeks, totaling nearly $1.1 billion recently.

​Impact: When institutions sell or pause their buying, the market loses its "V-shape" engine. Scenario 2 allows these big players to re-enter at lower "value" zones like the $58,000–$62,000 range.

3. Macroeconomic "Gravity"

​The current high-interest-rate environment and rising geopolitical tensions are acting like gravity on risk assets.

​Capital Rotation: Investors are currently favoring Gold (which recently hit record highs) and the US Dollar over crypto.

​The Narrative: For Scenario 1 to happen, we would need a "Fed Pivot" or a sudden drop in the Dollar. Since these look unlikely in the immediate weeks, Scenario 2 provides the necessary time for the macro-environment to cool down

Someone asked me is BTC correction started and end? When will be the right price to start accumulate BTC?

Here are my BTC weekly time frame analysis:-

[a] This could be our 1st weekly candle in red. That's means we are 25% sure we are into correction.

[b] In Y2023 (also known as Pre-Bull Market rally) - we have 2 major corrections took place that coincidentally lasted for 56 days or 8 weeks (2 months).

[c] Using Fibonacci Trend analysis - historically in every cycle 0.618 level has acted as first support before price surging continues

Now, if you look at the chart, every cycle there were several short-term corrections after rally. Y2023 is good example because it is pre bull market, and after short term corrections price will tend to go higher.

This is my answer to [a] when will correction start-end and [b] when should we start buying Bitcoin.

[a] Using past historical trend in Y2023, correction generally last for 8 weeks.

[b] If 3 consecutive red candles appeared in future, that conclude price correction is real and will last from 7 to 8 weeks. Means it end in Mar 11, 2024 - 1 month near the halving period.

[c] The "buying zone" is where we should start accumulate Bitcoins. Also known as Dollar Cost Averaging zone (DCA) - it is between 0.618 level. That means, anything below 40k is good buy.

Conclusion:

Don't get caught up in the short term volatility. Start accumulate Bitcoin sats (means buying in small quantity). In other words, buying every single dips if you can. My advise, don't use your emergency or savings funds. Set aside money you can afford to lose.

The above analysis is invalid if Bitcoin price breaks back to 45K 😎

Good luck

Disclaimer: Not financial advise.

What is Crypto Economy?

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The chart above is Bitcoin trading chart as of 11 June 2023.

The chart below is Wyckoff Distribution and Patterns Theory.

Bitcoin is following Wyckoff theory and Phase E will be bitcoin expansion growth.

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This ecosystem includes various components, such as blockchain technology, cryptocurrency exchanges, wallets, mining hardware, and software.

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Dollar Cost Averaging (DCA)

Investing in cryptocurrency require enormous patient and discipline. You dont have to worry when to buy and sell if you follow DCA method.