The Exchange

Applications are open for our 12th Yemen Exchange, via Zoom, this fall:

https://sanaacenter.org/event/the-twelfth-yemen-exchange

For more about all of our direct engagement research conferences going back to 2008, visit:

https://www.globalpoliticalexchange.org/

The 12th Yemen Exchange - Sana'a Center For Strategic Studies The 12th Yemen Exchange is an intensive online version of the Yemen Exchange organized by the Sana’a Center and The Exchange Foundation. The course is designed to provide unique access to information, perspectives, updates, and analysis on Yemen for those seeking to develop a working background on...

America and Israel look poised to directly and significantly attack Iran in the coming hours or days. Despite most of us thinking it would be the Republican Neocons of Iraq War shame who eventually would get more of the war and disaster they crave as the only/best solution, it is Team Biden that is going to do this - believing that now is a "Liquid moment" as Jared Kushner put it to Escalate to Victory - in the process handing the Trump campaign a fantastic own-goal or October Surprise...on top of moving forward with a massive widening of conflict, violence and instability that will rock the world.

It is, in short, a war of choice by Team Biden well beyond Bush's Iraq war disaster that will have enormous negative repercussions for the people of the region first, and assuredly Israel, the US and Europe as well.

My piece weeks ago, below, about the necessity of US involvement in this attack given Israel's manifest weaknesses and limitations in the field. They are great at stand-off destruction and mastery of cutting-edge tech but awful on the battlefield in actual combat with a peer enemy that doesn't even have air cover (witness Hezbollah's heavy damage in just the last 24 hours). They also can't escalate to an open war with the State of Iran without US boots and planes.

Why Israel still hasn't retaliated with a strike against Iran The stakes are now higher in the Middle East as Israel and the US deliberate their response to Iran's missile strikes

My piece today and video report for iNews in the UK:

“Why Israel still hasn't retaliated”

“…Blowback may be deemed to be moderate or severe by Israel, but measured against their strong, long-term interest to potentially knock out Iran, even the severe scenario could seem too good for Israel to pass up, despite the risk of global economic shock, damage to US, Gulf & Israeli interests, disruption of imminent US elections (though likely in favour of Bibi’s ally Trump) and the possibility of huge refugee flows to EU from a collapsing Iranian state.

Why Israel still hasn't retaliated with a strike against Iran The stakes are now higher in the Middle East as Israel and the US deliberate their response to Iran's missile strikes

My comments on Inside Story - this avoidable, reprehensible war is going to bring wide disaster on a scale we haven't seen in quote sometime. It should not have come to this.

An Israeli explosion rocks southern Beirut crossing another red line for Hezbollah | Inside Story An Israeli explosion has rocked southern Beirut, crossing another so-called red line for Hezbollah. The killing of senior commanders and civilians is another...

A great article (paywalled tho) on our lawsuit against the Biden Admin: "How far does Humanitarian Law Project reach in limiting speech has been an open question,” Andresen said, “Our case would at least, if successful, claw back some of that space.”

Devex Newswire: What’s the line between speaking to terrorists and supporting them? This question has pitted many civil society organizations against the U.S. government and a new case that could broaden the counterterrorism legal framework is heating up the debate. Plus, what African countries want from COP 29.

My contribution yesterday to AJI's InsideStory. Hezbollah is in its toughest position since 2012 but certainly not fully cornered or somehow doomed. The reality, however, is that their self-limited military actions: 1) have not significantly stemmed Palestinian deaths/destruction; 2) have not been able to prevent the steady erosion of Hamas's capabilities; 3) have not been able to inflict serious material damage on Israel besides unclear economic & political complications; 4)their limited actions have attracted blank check US support for Israel and 1/3 of the US Navy to the region; 5)and, most strategically significant, Hezb's military actions have not yet altered the software or hardware of Israel's negotiating position towards the durable ceasefire Hezbollah et al. evidently want. Still, I maintain that Netanyahu's coalition is unlikely to leverage this intelligently, pragmatically and patiently, instead choosing the path of war supremacy & Hezbollah delenda est.

As Hezbollah and Israel attack each other, what's the risk of a wider conflict? | Inside Story Hezbollah launched hundreds of rockets and drones at Israel - after it targeted the group in southern Lebanon early on Sunday. Both sides say more will follo...

Join us here in Kyiv or online July 23!

Refugees International and The Share Trust invite you to a presentation and discussion of our forthcoming joint report, “Passing The Buck: The Economics of Localizing Aid In Ukraine,” which will be hosted by the Ukrainian civil society organization ISAR Ednannia. This event will be available in English and Ukrainian via simultaneous interpretation.

https://www.refugeesinternational.org/events-and-testimony/passing-the-buck-the-economics-of-localizing-aid-in-ukraine/

Despite commitments to re-direct international assistance to local actors, the localization agenda has seen slow progress globally. Only 1.2% of global humanitarian funding went directly to local and national actors in 2022. This trend has been echoed in the response to the Ukraine crisis, where 0.07% of funding has gone directly to local actors since the full-scale Russian invasion in February 2022.

Deploying funding to local organizations has been shown to have a very high cost-efficiency – allowing more funding to get to those most affected by crises. The first ‘Passing the Buck’ study in 2022 used global data and found that local intermediaries could deliver programming that is 32% more cost-efficient than international intermediaries, by stripping out inflated international overhead and salary costs, equivalent to cost efficiency gains of $4.3bn annually.

Our forthcoming report groundtruths these global findings, using up-to-date data for the Ukraine response. The Ukraine Humanitarian Fund (UHF) is the largest pooled fund in the world at $181.2m in 2023. It has made important strides in shifting resources and leadership toward Ukrainian responders over the past year and a half, and the report is based on a representative sample of actual budgets from the UNOCHA Country Based Pooled Fund (CBPF) for 2023, representing 30% of total funding across UN, INGOs, and LNGOs.

Passing The Buck: The Economics of Localizing Aid in Ukraine - Refugees International Join Refugees International and The Share Trust for a presentation and discussion of our forthcoming joint report.

"As it currently stands, Israel very likely needs a substantial and verifiable withdrawal by Hezbollah from the border in order to avert internal pressure towards a far wider assault," Nicholas Noe, editor of the book Voice of Hezbollah: The Statements of Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, told Democracy in Exile. "But it is also very unlikely that any combination of domestic concessions which the U.S. might want to, or is able to, bestow on Hezbollah"—a friendly Lebanese president, a demarcation of the border in Lebanon's favor, reconstruction aid—"can bring this about, given the heavy military, historical, political and ideological barriers."

Biden's special envoy, Hochstein, seems to think that his working relationship with Lebanese parliamentary speaker Nabih Berri is good enough for him to be able to "lubricate some kind of a pullback deal by Hezbollah after a cease-fire," Noe said. But, he added, "the reality is that Berri simply doesn't have the pull on this core interest issue with Hezbollah."

Avoiding an "all-out war" in Lebanon could ultimately depend on whether "Israeli leaders inwardly recognize the changed balance of power and thus decrease their direct demands vis-à-vis Hezbollah, accepting smaller but nevertheless important and 'doable' measures which can over time help to reduce Hezbollah's ability and desire to project its military power," Noe said.

These measures, Noe suggested, could possibly include a stronger presence of the Lebanese Army at the border with Israel, more room for U.N. forces to maneuver in southern Lebanon, and demarcating non-controversial parts of the Lebanese-Israel border. As he noted, however, the prospect of the Israeli government agreeing to such measures is low. He doubted that Israeli leaders "have the desire or ability to follow such a path, while it seems unlikely that the Biden administration would push the Israelis in this direction, much less apply the known pressures towards a cease-fire."

For now, the Biden administration is pursuing a strategy aimed at protecting northern Israel's security by pushing for some form of a buffer zone between Lebanon and Israel, in southern Lebanon, rather than genuine peace. Ghaddar says that this path of negotiation risks failing, given Hezbollah's strength and position in Lebanon. "From past experience with the Israelis, Hezbollah is very unlikely to agree to retracting from the southern border," which she noted is already disputed, "only to help create a security boundary for the Israelis." She referred to a quote from Berri back in February: "'It's easier to relocate the Litani River further south than to displace Hezbollah northward.'"

Can Biden Avert ‘All-Out War’ Between Israel and Hezbollah? - DAWN The war of attrition between Hezbollah and Israel along the Israel-Lebanon border risks escalating into a full-on conflict.

Our discussion tonight on Inside Story:

Are Israel and Hezbollah on the verge of a full-blown war? | Inside Story Tensions between the Israeli military and Lebanese armed group Hezbollah are at an all-time high.They've been engaged in low-level hostilities for more than ...

We have two slots available for the 22nd Beirut Exchange conference which will be held in downtown Beirut, June 9-16. During the 40+sessions, participants will have the opportunity to listen to and engage with leading academics, analysts, activists and politicians representing a wide spectrum of views on Lebanon. Because of the ongoing hostilities, there is a refund provision for this Exchange should a cancellation of the program be necessary. All participants are required to purchases travel insurance ahead of the opening of the exchange on Sunday at 7pm, June 9.

Alumni of past Exchanges are particularly encouraged to join the group and can benefit from a reduced participation fee. For more information, visit:

https://www.globalpoliticalexchange.org/beirut

To Apply, visit:
https://forms.gle/31sryEHAekqnwrXT6

The Beirut Exchange: In-Person Research Conference Join the immersive research conference that brings together scholars, politicians, and activists for a unique perspective on Lebanon. Limited slots available. Apply before April 30.

We have two slots left for the 22nd Beirut Exchange June 9-16 (in-person). Due to the current hostilities, we do not expect to hold meetings outside of Greater Beirut. We also have a refund provision in the event of cancellation.

Apply now:
https://forms.gle/toPKpv1DEAvt254i6

For more on the Beirut Exchange:
https://www.globalpoliticalexchange.org/beirut

The Beirut Exchange Application Dear Applicant: Below you will find the complete application for the 22nd Beirut Exchange hosted by The Foundation for Global Political Exchange. The Conference will take place in-person June 9-16, 2024 in Beirut, Lebanon. Furthermore: o Deadline I for applications is April 15/Deadline II is May 15,...