22/06/2024
"As it currently stands, Israel very likely needs a substantial and verifiable withdrawal by Hezbollah from the border in order to avert internal pressure towards a far wider assault," Nicholas Noe, editor of the book Voice of Hezbollah: The Statements of Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, told Democracy in Exile. "But it is also very unlikely that any combination of domestic concessions which the U.S. might want to, or is able to, bestow on Hezbollah"—a friendly Lebanese president, a demarcation of the border in Lebanon's favor, reconstruction aid—"can bring this about, given the heavy military, historical, political and ideological barriers."
Biden's special envoy, Hochstein, seems to think that his working relationship with Lebanese parliamentary speaker Nabih Berri is good enough for him to be able to "lubricate some kind of a pullback deal by Hezbollah after a cease-fire," Noe said. But, he added, "the reality is that Berri simply doesn't have the pull on this core interest issue with Hezbollah."
Avoiding an "all-out war" in Lebanon could ultimately depend on whether "Israeli leaders inwardly recognize the changed balance of power and thus decrease their direct demands vis-à-vis Hezbollah, accepting smaller but nevertheless important and 'doable' measures which can over time help to reduce Hezbollah's ability and desire to project its military power," Noe said.
These measures, Noe suggested, could possibly include a stronger presence of the Lebanese Army at the border with Israel, more room for U.N. forces to maneuver in southern Lebanon, and demarcating non-controversial parts of the Lebanese-Israel border. As he noted, however, the prospect of the Israeli government agreeing to such measures is low. He doubted that Israeli leaders "have the desire or ability to follow such a path, while it seems unlikely that the Biden administration would push the Israelis in this direction, much less apply the known pressures towards a cease-fire."
For now, the Biden administration is pursuing a strategy aimed at protecting northern Israel's security by pushing for some form of a buffer zone between Lebanon and Israel, in southern Lebanon, rather than genuine peace. Ghaddar says that this path of negotiation risks failing, given Hezbollah's strength and position in Lebanon. "From past experience with the Israelis, Hezbollah is very unlikely to agree to retracting from the southern border," which she noted is already disputed, "only to help create a security boundary for the Israelis." She referred to a quote from Berri back in February: "'It's easier to relocate the Litani River further south than to displace Hezbollah northward.'"
The war of attrition between Hezbollah and Israel along the Israel-Lebanon border risks escalating into a full-on conflict.
