Centre for Atmospheric Sciences : IIT DELHI

first cyclone of the year.

Sub: Likely formation of a Cyclonic Storm over east central Arabian Sea around 16th May 2021

A low pressure area is very likely to form over southeast Arabian Sea around 14th May morning. It is very likely to move north-northwestwards across southeast Arabian Sea and adjoining Lakshadweep area and intensify gradually. It may intensify into a Cyclonic Storm over east central Arabian Sea around 16th May and continue to move north-northwestwards.

Warnings:
(i) Rainfall:
• Lakshadweep Islands: Light to moderate rainfall at most places with heavy falls at isolated places on 13th May and heavy to very heavy falls at isolated places very likely on 14th May. The intensity is likely to further increase and very heavy falls at a few places and extremely heavy falls at isolated places very likely on 15th May.
• Kerala: Light to moderate rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy falls at isolated places very likely over Kerala on 14th & 15th May.
• Tamil Nadu: Light to moderate rainfall at a few places with heavy falls at isolated places very likely over south Tamil Nadu on 14th May & at many places with heavy to very heavy falls at isolated places over Ghat districts of Tamil Nadu on 15th May.
• Karnataka: Light to moderate rainfall at many places with heavy falls at isolated places very likely over coastal & adjoining Ghat areas of south interior Karnataka on 14th May & very heavy falls at isolated places on 15th May.

(ii) Wind warning
• Squally weather with wind speed reaching 40-50 kmph gusting to 60 kmph is very likely over southeast Arabian Sea and adjoining Lakshadweep – Maldives area and equatorial Indian Ocean from 14th May morning. It is very likely to increase gradually becoming 50- 60 kmph gusting to 70 kmph over the same region from 15th morning.
• It is likely to increase gradually becoming Gale wind speed reaching 60 – 70 kmph gusting to 80 kmph over east-central Arabian Sea and adjoining southeast Arabian Sea and Lakshadweep area from 16th May morning.
• Squally wind speed reaching 40-50 kmph gusting to 60 kmph likely along & off Kerala coast on 14th May and 45-55 kmph gusting to 65 kmph along & off Kerala - Karnataka coasts on 15th & 16th May.
• Squally wind speed reaching 40-50 kmph gusting to 60 kmph very likely to prevail over Comorin-Maldives area during 14th – 15th May.
• Squally wind speed reaching 40-50 kmph gusting to 60 kmph very likely to prevail along & off Maharashtra-Goa coasts on 16th May.

(iii) Sea condition
• Sea conditions over southeast Arabian Sea and adjoining Lakshadweep - Maldives area & equatorial Indian Ocean will be rough to very rough on 14th & 15th May.
• Sea condition over eastcentral Arabian Sea will be very rough to high on 16th May.
• Sea conditions will be rough to very rough over Comorin area and along & off Kerala coast on 14th & 15th and over eastcentral Arabian Sea along & off Karnataka coast on 15th May and Maharashtra – Goa coasts on 16th May.

(iv) Tidal wave Warning
• Tidal wave of about 1 meter height above the astronomical tide is very likely to inundate low lying areas of Lakshadweep Islands on 15th & 16th May.

(v) Fishermen Warning
• Fishermen out in the Deep Sea are advised to return to coast by 14th May.
• The fishermen are advised not to venture into southeast Arabian Sea, Lakshadweep – Maldives areas from 13th May, east central Arabian Sea along & off Karnataka coast from 14th May and into eastcentral Arabian Sea and along & off Maharashtra – Goa coasts from 15th May.

Fig.1 indicates the area for which Fishermen warnings are issued based on the forecasts pertaining to today’s mid-day bulletin.

The development of this system is being closely monitored and concerned state governments are being informed regularly.

Kindly visit www.imd.gov.in, www.rsmcnewdelhi.imd.gov.in and www.mausam.imd.gov.in for updates on the system.

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