10/03/2020
Covid 19 spreads like Nuclear Chain Reaction.
Dr Suhail Naik
Consultant pediatrician.
President DAK
Human coronoviruses (HCoVs) are old family of RNA viruses. They are most frequently associated with the common cold and upper respiratory tract infections characterized by rhinorea, nasal congestion,sore throat, sneezing, cough and fever.
These viruses are not only human specific but are distributed through out universe in different birds, reptiles, amphibians. Sometimes two serotypes of coronoviruses or other viruses come together and exchange their genetic material and results in new virus with different structure, properties, virulence, secondary infective rate (number of persons who will get infection from case or carrier) and case fatality rate (number of persons who will die among infected cases)
Such exchange of genetic material can be natural, accidental or man made like software viruses are generated for laptops and cellular phones. As soon as a new series of android phones or laptops are launched , a chain of software viruses are simultaneously innovated and circulated to damage these devices. Therefore it becomes imperative on customers to purchase and install good number of antivirus softwares in their gadgets.
The creation , propagation and circulation of software viruses and antivuses is notorious work of some mischievous human beings with vested interest.
Similarly Covid -19 is a new virus with very high virulence , infective rate and case fatality. It is still not known weather Covid 19 is naturally , accidentally or intentionally created , it's genomic and molecular structure is altogether new for human immune system and with the result every human being on this planet is suceptibile to this novel virus. The immune system of human beings is not upgraded and ready to combat this novel virus. Further novel Covid 19 has surprised the modern medical science which doesn't have any antivirals or vaccines to combat, contain and curtail the Covid 19 pandemic , which has engulfed more than 100 countries and is still propagating.
What we have learned from Wuhan China about this virus in this short span of time is that it has high secondary infective rate with every single patient or carrier spreading it to at least three persons and subsequently these three to next nine persons and so on. This is akin to a nuclear fission chain reaction and is propagating to reach every nook and corner of this planet. To break down this chain every country has to take extraordinary measure to curtail the spread of this dreaded bug. Accurate response at correct time is going to save human lives and or humanity.
To disallow Covid -19 to enter in to Jammu and Kashmir UT the administration might think of total cancelation of flight operations, suspension of tourism, sports and cultural and political events. Closure of schools, colleges and universities. Prohibition on religious gatherings and cancelation of all examinations. Further every person coming to UT must be screened, traced and quarantined. The only hope right now is that with increasing environmental temperatures the activity and propagation of virus may slow down to a level where health care system will not crumble.
The biggest concern about Covid 19 is that it's spread to India which is second highly populated country after China can prove disastrous and biggest human tragedies. China constructed a fulfleged multi story dedicated hospital within days and equipped it with man ,machinery and unlimited number of Mechanical Ventilators. At least every patient who deserved ventilatory support got it at right time. Still the case fatality rate in Wuhan ranged between 2.5 to 2.9 percent.
India being a developing country where poverty , malnutrition, overcrowding, poor standards of life, illitracy are still rampant and health system is fragile lacking in infrastructure, man and machinery power , the apprehensions are Covid 19 can prove disastrous and result in historical human tragedy, if right responses and slew of measures are not taken at right time.
In light of knowledge gained from Wuhan China on the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical measures against COVID-19, like rapid detection, large scale case isolation and quarantine of contacts, the spread of virus can be contained.
Furthermore it is primary responsibility of society in general and leaders, doctors, teachers, preachers, scholars and media houses in particular to educate and propagate knowledge of basic respiratory hygiene so that spread of this virus can be halted
