Misgav Institute for National Security and Zionist Strategy

Diplomatic & Security Update – June 16, 2026

Five Key Headlines from the Misgav Institute, Headed by Meir Ben Shabbat

1. Proposed $300B Iran Fund Tied to Ceasefire, Hormuz and Nuclear Talks
A senior administration official told the Financial Times that a proposed investment fund of roughly $300 billion, referenced by Vice President Vance, would be contingent on a final settlement that is part of the MoU with Iran, if Tehran reopens the Strait of Hormuz, maintains a 60-day ceasefire and continues negotiations on a nuclear deal. A senior official also told The Wall Street Journal that the emerging nuclear framework may include fewer restrictions than the 2015 JCPOA.

2. U.S. Official: Oman Removed as Iran Mediator Over “Duplicitous” Conduct
The United States removed Oman from its role as mediator with Iran due to what a senior administration official described as Omani “duplicity.” Speaking to reporters in Washington, the official said the administration was “very dissatisfied” with Oman’s handling of the talks, and felt Muscat was acting in ways that appeared to favor Iranian interests.

3. Gulf States Seek to Reduce Reliance on U.S. Security Guarantees
The war and its aftermath have prompted several Gulf states to explore alternatives to U.S. security protection, according to a New York Times report citing two Gulf officials. However, Gulf leaders are pursuing partnerships with countries Washington would view as acceptable, recognizing that the U.S. still maintains thousands of soldiers in the region, limiting the extent to which countries can turn in a different direction.

4. Abbas Announces PA Presidential Elections; Unclear Whether He Will Run
A decree issued by Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas calls for presidential elections in early 2027 and legislative elections by the end of this year. The official Palestinian news agency WAFA, which published the decree, did not indicate whether the 90-year-old Abbas intends to seek another term. About two months ago, the Palestinian Authority held local elections, which were also conducted in Gaza for the first time in 20 years.

5. France and UAE Discuss Partnership in Rafale Upgrade Program
France has opened talks with the UAE on possible participation in the Rafale fighter jet upgrade program following the collapse of the joint European FCAS development effort. The initiative is not intended to replace FCAS, as the Rafale lacks the stealth capabilities planned for FCAS, but it could help France field a more advanced fighter aircraft by 2030.

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The Misgav Institute for National Security

The deal gives the Iranian regime a lifeline after it had reached its lowest point. It provides Tehran with resources to rebuild its capabilities.

Instead of forcing Tehran to sever its ties with Lebanon, it strengthens Iran's hold over the country.

With an outcome like this, the Trump administration is making itself a laughingstock in the region.

Misgav Institute Chair, Meir Ben Shabbat in Israel Hayom.

https://www.misgavins.org/en/ben-shabbat-iran-never-won-a-war-but-never-lost-a-negotiation/

Diplomatic & Security Update – June 14, 2026

Five Key Headlines from the Misgav Institute, Headed by Meir Ben Shabbat

1. Senior Iranian Officials: War Reinforced Belief That Only Strength Deters
A senior Iranian official told the Financial Times that the war, and the failure of Israel and the United States to eliminate Iran’s “missile cities,” convinced Tehran that deterrence comes from military power, not trust-building or diplomacy. Another official argued that the IRGC emerged stronger from the conflict, citing the resilience of its missile network and its ability to sustain attacks on Israel and regional targets throughout the war, while continuing firing missiles.

2. Report: IRGC Commander Urges Holding Out for Full Iranian Demands
According to The Wall Street Journal, IRGC commander Vahidi is pressing Tehran to delay any agreement with the U.S. until Iran’s demands are fully met. Citing Arab and Iranian sources, the report says Vahidi advocated missile strikes on Israel in response to attacks on Hezbollah, and has repeatedly overruled more pragmatic voices, including Foreign Minister Araghchi and President Pezeshkian, who favored compromise with Washington.

3. Shipping Analysts: Nearly 100 Million Barrels of Oil Have Left the Gulf Since May
Energy analytics firm Kpler estimates that roughly 96 million barrels of oil have exited the Gulf or transited through Oman since May. Shipping data indicate some tankers used ship-to-ship transfers to obscure cargo movements and reduce exposure to Iranian tracking. Separately, consultancy Wood Mackenzie reported that Iranian oil production has fallen by about 800,000 barrels per day.

4. Iraqi Prime Minister Invited to Washington in July
Iraq's new prime minister, Ali Al-Zaidi, has been invited to the White House next month for his first visit to Washington, though the agenda remains under discussion. A government spokesperson told The National that the trip aims to reset bilateral relations and attract investment to Iraq. Security issues are also expected to feature prominently, including discussions on disarming militia groups.

5. Swiss Referendum Tests Support for 10 Million Population Cap
Swiss voters headed to the polls today to decide whether to cap the country's population at 10 million, highlighting deep divisions over immigration. If approved, the measure could strain relations with the EU. Switzerland’s population currently stands at about 9.1 million, and polls suggest a closely divided electorate, with a slight edge for opponents of the measure.

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The Misgav Institute for National Security

October 7 was not just an intelligence failure - it was the collapse of a doctrine.

For years, Israeli prisons became leadership academies for terror groups.

Dismantling this "kidnapping economy" is the real strategic lesson.

Misgav Institute Senior Fellow, Moshe Fuzaylov in The Jerusalem Post ⬇️

https://www.misgavins.org/en/fuzaylov-the-death-penalty-isnt-revenge/

The Jerusalem Post