Misgav Institute for National Security and Zionist Strategy

Diplomatic & Security Update – August 13, 2026
Five Key Headlines from the Misgav Institute, headed by Meir Ben-Shabbat

1. U.S. Redirects 59 Ships; Hormuz Traffic Remains Sparse
A senior Iranian source told Reuters there has been no progress in talks with the U.S. to revive the interim agreement and set a timeline for its implementation. Meanwhile, U.S. Central Command said it had redirected 59 commercial vessels as part of the blockade of Iran. WSJ ship-tracking data showed that just 14 vessels crossed the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday, 11 via the Iranian-administered route, compared with more than 130 daily before the war.

2. OPEC Output Rebounds in July; Iran Lags Behind
OPEC’s latest monthly report shows Iran increased oil production by just 26,000 barrels per day in July to 2.478 million bpd. By contrast, OPEC members increased output by about 1.66 million bpd, led by Iraq, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait. Kpler told Iran International that Iranian crude deliveries to Chinese refineries fell from more than 1.7 million bpd in March and April to less than 500,000 bpd in July, with Iran selling its oil at a discount of more than $5 per barrel.

3. IRGC Helps Houthis Disperse Leaders Amid Fears of Strikes
Asharq Al-Awsat reported that Houthi leaders have dispersed and moved to secure locations following the latest escalation with Saudi-backed forces, with IRGC officers overseeing the security measures. Senior figures in Sanaa, Hodeidah, Saada and elsewhere were moved to hotels and other temporary bases, while some government and intelligence facilities were relocated. The IRGC also established an operations room in Yemen.

4. U.S. Gives Netanyahu Leeway to Explain Gaza Plan
The Trump administration is less concerned with what Israeli officials says than with Israel’s actions on the ground, a U.S. official told Politico. The official said Washington was initially “disappointed” that Israel responded to the Gaza peace plan, but is pleased that it has since eased its assault. The U.S. understands the political pressures ahead of Israel’s elections and will give the government space to navigate and explain the plan to the Israeli public.

5. Report: Four Countries Considered to Monitor Hezbollah Disarmament
Reuters reported, citing sources, that Britain, Italy, Switzerland and Indonesia could be candidates to oversee Hezbollah’s disarmament. The list, drawn up during talks in Rome last week, would allow the countries to define the scope of their oversight, deploy troops or participate in missions assessing the process. Lebanese officials expressed optimism about the talks, saying they are making progress.

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The Misgav Institute for National Security

Diplomatic & Security Update – August 11, 2026

Five Key Headlines from the Misgav Institute, headed by Meir Ben-Shabbat

1. Sources Close to the Houthis: Escalation Timing - Not Random
Sources close to the Houthis told The National that the escalation in Yemen and efforts to regionalize the conflict are partly aimed at supporting Iran while its other proxy groups remain under pressure. They said the timing is intended to maximize leverage, with pressure on both the Strait of Hormuz and Bab Al Mandeb potentially amplifying the impact. At the same time, the Houthis are also pursuing their own interests, particularly against Saudi Arabia.

2. U.S. Emergency Oil Reserves Fall to Lowest Level Since the 80s
New Energy Department data shows that the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) has fallen below 300 million barrels for the first time since the early 1980s. The decline was expected after the Trump administration announced in March that it would release 172 million barrels over 120 days. Low SPR levels are generally separate from private oil stocks and consumer fuel availability.

3. Russia-Syria Agreement: Bases at Tartus, Hmeimim to Be Transferred to Damascus
The Syrian Foreign Ministry in Damascus announced Sunday that Russia and Syria had reached an agreement under which Russia’s military presence in the country will gradually be reduced and facilities at Hmeimim and Tartus will be transferred to Syrian control. According to Damascus, Syria will take control of Hmeimim airport and the commercial berth at Tartus, while the military facilities at both sites will become joint training and qualification centers for the two militaries.

4. Cyprus Aims to Supply Europe With Gas by Early 2028 - via Egypt
Cyprus’s energy minister told AP that gas from the Cronos field off Cyprus’s southern coast could reach Europe as early as March 2028. Work on a pipeline connecting the field to existing infrastructure at Egypt’s Zohr field will begin later this year, with the gas then sent for liquefaction and shipment to Europe. The minister also welcomed French investment firm Meridiam as a backer of the Great Sea Interconnector, which will link Cyprus to Europe’s power grid and eventually to Israel.

5. U.S. Remains Engaged in Asia, but Demands Greater Burden-Sharing
Elbridge Colby, Under-Secretary of War for Policy, said Monday in Manila that the United States is not disengaging from Asia, but is instead “digging in” to maintain a favorable balance of power in the Indo-Pacific. He also called on U.S. allies to take greater responsibility for their own defense, describing the desired approach as “partnership, not dependency”.

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The Misgav Institute for National Security

Diplomatic & Security Update – August 9, 2026

Five Key Headlines from the Misgav Institute, headed by Meir Ben-Shabbat

1. Iran Sets Conditions for Reopening Hormuz and Moves to Ban U.S., Israeli Ships
Iran’s Supreme National Security Council secretary, Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr, issued demands for reopening the Strait of Hormuz, separate from a possible Iran-Oman agreement. They include lifting the U.S. blockade and sanctions, withdrawing U.S. forces, releasing frozen Iranian assets, paying war reparations, and ending attacks on Iran and its allies. Meanwhile, Iran’s parliament is reviewing a plan to ban ships linked to the U.S., Israel and other “hostile countries” from transiting the strait.

2. U.S. Blockade Halts Oil Loading at Kharg Island
Satellite imagery and shipping data cited by the Financial Times show that no Iranian vessels loaded oil at Kharg Island over the past week, while only 16 ships were waiting nearby - the lowest number since early last month. Iran normally exports about 90 percent of its oil through Kharg, as much of its coastline is too shallow for large tankers.

3. Lebanon, Israel Agree Shortlist for Hezbollah Disarmament Monitors
Lebanon and Israel have agreed on a shortlist of countries that could send troops to verify Hezbollah's disarmament under a U.S. brokered deal, with Washington to make the final selection. Reuters reports that Israel and the U.S. vetoed France. Beirut also rejected a proposal to use private security firms as monitors. The next round of talks is set for early September.

4. Hamas Urges U.S. to Pressure Israel on Gaza Deal
A Hamas official told AFP that Hamas and other Gaza factions are ready to move to the next phase of the U.S.-backed Gaza plan, provided Israel approves and implements the agreement. The phase would involve Hamas handing over its weapons to a Palestinian governing committee. Hamas is urging Washington to pressure and compel Israel to accept the deal and advance to the second phase.

5. Turkish Foreign Minister: Turkey-Saudi-Pakistan Pact Similar to NATO Article 5
Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said the defense pact signed by Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan is technically the same as NATO's Article 5, under which an attack on one member is regarded as an attack on all. He stressed that the pact is not directed against Iran and, said President Erdoğan wants to expand it, with Egypt a potential member.

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The Misgav Institute for National Security

Misgav testifies before the U.S. Congress 🇺🇸

Executive Director Asher Fredman was invited to testify before the House Foreign Affairs Committee on the next phase of the Abraham Accords, joining former Ambassadors David Friedman and Daniel Shapiro.

His testimony presented concrete pathways for expanding the circle of regional peace - while rejecting illusions in the Palestinian arena.

▶️ Full hearing: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ACGwn5jsRuM

Diplomatic & Security Update – August 4, 2026

Five Key Headlines from the Misgav Institute, headed by Meir Ben-Shabbat

1. U.S. Report: No New Iran Talks Planned; Araghchi Invited to Pakistan
Despite President Trump's claims that U.S.-Iran talks are underway, U.S. officials told CBS that no new negotiations are planned. Iran also denied any direct talks, saying its only negotiations are with Oman over the Strait of Hormuz. Al Arabiya reported that Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi is expected in Islamabad after Pakistan invited him for an urgent visit.

2. UAE Halves Reliance on Hormuz for Oil Exports
The UAE exported just under 1 million barrels of oil per day through the Strait of Hormuz in July, down by about 50%. Instead, shipments via the Port of Fujairah on the Gulf of Oman increased as the UAE relied on its 1.5 million bpd bypass pipeline. Combined oil flows from Hormuz-facing Gulf terminals averaged about 4 million bpd in July - roughly 20% of prewar levels.

3. Board of Peace: IDF Withdrawal Only After Full Disarmament
Board of Peace Chairman Mladenov met yesterday with Prime Minister Netanyahu amid progress on Gaza disarmament talks. Following the meeting, the Board clarified that the disarmament process would take place over time, and stressed that the IDF would withdraw beyond the Yellow Line only after the complete decommissioning of light and heavy weapons and tunnels in Gaza. Hamas said it remains committed to the second phase of the ceasefire agreement, and is awaiting a "clear, official response" from the Board and mediators on its implementation.

4. Israel-Lebanon Talks Resume; Beirut Claims Israel Added New Conditions
Israeli and Lebanese representatives are meeting today in Rome for another round of direct talks. The U.S. is sending a technical-level delegation to support implementation of the existing framework. U.S. officials said the talks are moving with positive momentum, focusing on expanding pilot zones, resolving remaining issues, and advancing toward a comprehensive security agreement. Lebanese officials claimed Israel introduced a new condition: it will not withdraw from the Ali Taher area until Hezbollah withdraws from the area and is disarmed.

5. Iraqi Kurdish Leader Meets Syrian President
Nechirvan Barzani, President of Iraq's Kurdistan Region, arrived in Damascus yesterday and met with Syrian President Ahmad al-Sharaa. Talks focused on integrating Kurdish forces into the Syrian army, and took place at the Syrian government’s invitation. Barzani, who is considered close to Turkish President Erdoğan, reportedly declined to meet SDF commander Gen. Mazloum Abdi, despite helping initiate the agreement to dissolve the SDF and integrate its forces into the Syrian military.

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The Misgav Institute for National Security

Reality check: The Misgav Institute holds in-depth seminar with John Spencer on Gaza, Iran, and the future of urban warfare.

The Misgav Institute for National Security, together with Herut – the Center for Israeli Liberty, hosted John Spencer, a world-leading expert on urban warfare, for an in-depth seminar on strategies, tactics, and international law obligations in the fight against terror and radical regimes.

Bringing together Misgav Institute Senior Fellows, Herut Center leaders, and top experts and practitioners, the seminar examined past cases of urban warfare, the distortions in the international discourse on Israel’s actions in Gaza, and strategic objectives in Iran. The discussion focused on realist and effective strategies for combatting radical actors in urban environments, and the danger to democracies posed by inaccurate interpretations of international law.

Misgav Institute Chair, Meir Ben-Shabbat, thanked Spencer for his courage and clarity in countering the lies regarding Israel’s fight against terror, and for Spencer’s willingness to join Misgav’s distinguished International Advisory Council.

https://www.misgavins.org/en/john-spencer-joins-the-misgav-institutes-international-advisory-council/

Diplomatic & Security Update – August 2, 2026

Five Key Headlines from the Misgav Institute, headed by Meir Ben-Shabbat

1. Saudi Arabia, Regional States Push Trump to Halt Iran Strike
President Trump said he had canceled a planned strike, reportedly targeting Iran’s energy facilities, after regional countries presented a framework for a deal, including reopening the Strait of Hormuz and ending Iran’s nuclear threat. Overnight, Trump spoke with the Saudi Crown Prince, who urged him to avoid military action, while Pakistan, Turkey, the UAE, and Qatar also pushed for de-escalation.

2. Houthis Deny Plans to Charge Transit Fees in Bab el-Mandeb
Yemen's Houthi rebels denied plans to impose transit fees on ships passing through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, saying navigation remains free. Last week reports said the Houthis were considering adopting an Iranian-style transit fee system in the Bab el-Mandeb after talks with senior Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps officials, expanding their maritime pressure campaign after imposing a blockade on Saudi Arabian ports.

3. Iraq, Turkey Renew Oil Pipeline Deal for One Year
Turkey's energy minister announced that Baghdad and Ankara signed a one-year agreement to continue transporting Iraqi oil to Turkey via pipeline. The deal extends a decades-old arrangement that expired last week, allowing talks on a long-term agreement to continue. Turkey wants to restore the pipeline to its full capacity of roughly 1.5 million barrels per day, and potentially extend it to southern Iraqi oil fields.

4. Trump Backs Away from Patriot Production Deal for Ukraine
President Trump said the U.S. had not agreed to license Ukraine to produce Patriot missiles, saying it was “difficult” to provide such advanced technology. The comments appeared to reverse his earlier indication that Kyiv could receive a production license. During their meeting in Washington last week, President Zelensky also asked Trump to persuade Elon Musk to expand Ukraine’s access to Starlink for operations against Russia.

5. Russia Cracks Down on Videos of Ukrainian Strikes, Following Gulf States
Russian authorities have begun targeting citizens who post videos showing the impact of Ukrainian missiles and drones, arguing that such footage helps Kyiv improve targeting accuracy. Police across Russia have detained individuals who shared such videos online, with authorities warning that such actions could lead to treason charges. Moscow has also sought the arrest of Telegram founder Pavel Durov, accusing his platform of enabling Ukrainian operations.

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The Misgav Institute for National Security

The Misgav Institute for National Security is very happy to announce that John Spencer has joined the institute’s highly-distinguished International Advisory Council.

John Spencer is an award-winning scholar, professor, author, combat veteran, and military analyst. An internationally recognized authority on modern warfare and military strategy, he is widely regarded as one of the world's leading experts on urban warfare.

Spencer is co-founder and Executive Director of the Urban Warfare Institute. He served as the Chair of Urban Warfare Studies at the Modern War Institute at West Point, co-director of the Urban Warfare Project, and host of the Urban Warfare Project podcast. He is also Chair of War Studies at the Madison Policy Forum, and a founding member of the International Working Group on Subterranean Warfare.

During his U.S. Army career, he served as an advisor to the Army's senior four-star general and other senior leaders spanning the Pentagon and West Point. Since retiring from the Army, he has continued to advise senior military leaders, heads of state, and militaries around the world.

Spencer has been one of the leading voices countering the distortions and lies in the international arena regarding Israel’s military campaigns against Hamas, Hezbollah and other terrorist organizations. The Misgav Institute looks forward to benefiting from Spencer’s expertise and experience as part of its research and recommendations on national security, modern warfare, and the fight against terror and radical regimes.

https://www.misgavins.org/en/john-spencer-joins-the-misgav-institutes-international-advisory-council/