香港民意研究所 hkpori

13/02/2025

（Please scroll down for English version）

【有關香港民意研究所未來發展之聲明】

春節過去，香港民意研究所（香港民研）重新審視未來發展路向後，最近作出以下決定，特此宣布：

1. 香港民研即日起無限期擱置所有自費研究活動，包括自1992年開始的定期追蹤調查，以至近期開展的專題研究。

2. 香港民研會專注籌備及執行現有的委託研究項目，包括現階段經已開始洽談的項目。

3. 香港民研將會轉型甚至結業，主席及行政總裁鍾庭耀歡迎有心人士洽購或接辦香港民研，而其本人就會繼續透過世界民意研究學會推動民意研究的專業發展，直至2026年底卸任學會的執行理事為止。

香港民研一直奉公守法，惟鑑於現時環境，研究所雖然希望繼續推動科學民研的發展，但覺舉步維艱，唯有停步。研究團隊衷心希望將來有機會延續有關工作，現正積極檢視所有可行方案，最終決定將會適時公布。

2025 年 2 月 13 日

[A Statement on the Future Development of HKPORI]

As the Spring Festival comes to an end, the Hong Kong Public Opinion Research Institute (HKPORI) has again reviewed its development and made these decisions:

1. HKPORI will suspend all its self-funded research activities indefinitely, including its regular tracking surveys conducted since 1992, and all feature studies recently introduced.

2. HKPORI will focus its effort on the preparation and ex*****on of existing commissioned studies, including those at negotiation stage.

3. HKPORI will undergo a transformation or even close down. President and CEO Robert Chung welcomes interested parties to take over the Institute, while he himself as a member of the Executive Council of the World Association for Public Opinion Research (WAPOR) will continue to promote professional development around the world until his term ends after 2026.

HKPORI has always been law-abiding, but in the current environment, it has to pause its promotion of scientific polling. The research team hopes there will be another opportunity to resume its work. HKPORI is actively exploring all possible options, it will announce its final decision when the time is right.

13 February 2025

26/01/2025

Editor’s Note: Due to various technical reasons, HKPORI has suspended all self-financed research activities. However, our effort to promote popular science launched last year will continue. We will use sharp plain language to help readers grasp the skills of reading figures, and publish these short articles from time to time.

[Polling 101] Percentages Are Not Easy to Use?

In almost all social science surveys, the results are expressed in percentages. For example, a recent media report says, “The survey shows that 38% of SMEs said their business confidence was affected by the change of the U.S. President, of which 62% were due to the possibility of the U.S. imposing new tariffs on imports, and 59% were due to changes in the economic environment.” This report is accurate in citing figures, but for the purpose of popular science education, we can discuss the issue of percentage base.

Full Article: www.pori.hk/article/polling101-percentage

26/01/2025

編按：基於各種技術原因，香港民研暫時擱置所有自費研究活動。不過，自去年推出的民調科普文章，將會繼續發佈。文章嘗試以淺白語言、簡短篇幅，讓讀者掌握解讀數據的方法，並以不定期形式發佈。

【民調101】百分比不易用？

幾乎所有社會科學的調查，都會以百分比來表達結果。例如最近有媒體報導：「調查顯示，38% 中小企表示，營業信心受美國總統換屆影響，其中 62% 因為美國可能對進口商品徵收新關稅，59% 因為經濟環境改變。」這個報導準確引述數字，但以科普教育來說，我們大可以討論一下百分比基數的問題。

全文閱讀：www.pori.hk/article/polling101-percentage

#香港民研 #民調101 #百分比

11/01/2025

更新：本節目將會改為不定期播出，敬請留意香港民研網站及各社交媒體最新消息。（2025年1月18日）

【首播】楊健興專欄節目《民情解碼》正式播出

香港民研客席專欄作者楊健興，推出最新專欄節目《民情解碼》，本片為第一集。

客席專欄是香港民研 2025 年的新嘗試，邀請專家學者加入香港民研發佈平台。首批專欄作者包括資深新聞工作者楊健興與時事評論員劉銳紹（夫子）、浸會大學副教授陳家洛。

楊健興今天（1月11日）起播出新節目《民情解碼》，暫定每周六晚上 6 時播出，首集免費公開，未來會推出會員優先／限定內容。希望市民大眾加入香港民研成為會員，以支持我們的研究工作。

註：首集《民情解碼》礙於技術原因，未能如期於 6 時播出，敬請原諒。

搶先預覽客席專欄：https://www.pori.hk/member-zone/all
支持我們／成為會員：https://www.pori.hk/support-us

香港民研客席專欄作者楊健興，推出最新專欄節目《民情解碼》，本片為第一集。客席專欄是香港民研 2025 年的新嘗試，邀請專家學者加入香港民研發佈平台。資深新聞工作者楊健興與時事評論員劉銳紹（夫子）、浸會大學副教...

10/01/2025

【廣開研路】香港民研推客席專欄　楊健興專欄節目明首播

香港民研昨天（9日）舉行記者會，回顧 2024 年的工作及報告 2025 年發展方向。主席及行政總裁鍾庭耀表示，2025 年將進一步縮減高成本的研究工作，轉向發展回應社會議題的專題研究、加強公眾教育，以及發展會員制度。他邀請了專家學者加入香港民研發佈平台，推出三個全新的客席專欄，期望能吸引市民成為香港民研會員以補貼研究開支，會員將會擁有優先閱讀或限定閱讀的福利。

專欄作者包括時事評論員劉銳紹（夫子）、資深新聞工作者楊健興，及浸會大學副教授陳家洛。

記者會嘉賓劉銳紹、楊健興亦都親身出席了昨天的記者會。楊健興回想去年獲邀時，坦言當刻感到疑惑，但細想之下認為民調是透過科學調查掌握民情、民意，而民情民意能夠發揮社會監察政府的作用，也具教育作用。「公眾知情其實對社會有好處，知情、教育、監察，與我一直做的傳媒新聞工作，都有很多共通的地方。」於是他很快就答應了鍾庭耀提出的邀請。

楊健興又憶述，與鍾庭耀相識於 80 年代，那時候《南華早報》開始找鍾做民調。「如果說民意，我相信如果回看歷史，港英政府都是暴動之後才緊張民意，80 年代要（準備）將主權交給中國，開始很重視民意，然後有一些制度上的轉變 —— 立法會、區議會。」楊續指，情況在近年出現很大變化，民調面對的制肘越來越多，掌握民情的難度也更大。他於是想在專欄節目中回顧每周發生的一些事情，分析當中反映了怎樣的民意，民意與政府、社會又是怎樣互動。

楊健興在香港民研發佈平台的新節目名為《民情解碼》，暫定每周六晚上 6 時播出，明天（1月11日）將會免費公開第一集。請密切留意香港民研的 YouTube 頻道及各個社交媒體平台。

香港民研將陸續介紹劉銳紹、陳家洛的專欄，市民亦可到香港民研全新網站搶先預覽：https://www.pori.hk/member-zone/all

支持我們／成為會員：https://www.pori.hk/support-us

#香港民研 #客席專欄 #劉銳紹 #楊健興 #陳家洛

10/01/2025

[Broadening Research Horizons] HKPORI Launches Guest Column Series – Chris Yeung’s Programme Premieres Tomorrow

HKPORI held a press conference yesterday (9 January) to review our work in 2024 and outline the development direction for 2025. President and CEO Robert Chung stated that in 2025, HKPORI would further scale down high-cost research projects, shifting its focus towards topical studies addressing social issues, enhancing public education, and expanding its membership system.

Chung has invited experts and scholars to contribute to HKPORI’s publication platform, launching three new guest columns. The initiative aims to attract citizens to become HKPORI members to help subsidise research costs. Members will enjoy benefits such as priority or exclusive access to these columns.

The guest columnists include current affairs commentator Johnny Lau, veteran journalist Chris Yeung, and Associate Professor Kenneth Chan from Hong Kong Baptist University.

Both Lau and Yeung attended yesterday’s press conference in person. Reflecting on Chung’s invitation last year, Yeung admitted he initially felt uncertain. However, upon further reflection, he recognised that opinion polling is a scientific method of understanding public sentiment and opinion, which plays a role in monitoring the government and has educational value. “Public awareness is beneficial to society. Awareness, education, and monitoring align closely with the work I’ve been doing in journalism,” Yeung explained. He quickly accepted Chung’s invitation.

Yeung also recalled his acquaintance with Robert Chung in the 1980s, when South China Morning Post began engaging Chung for opinion polls. “If we talk about public opinion, I believe history shows that the colonial British Hong Kong government only started paying attention to public opinion after the riots. In the 1980s, as preparations began for the handover of sovereignty to China, public opinion became a major focus, leading to institutional changes such as the Legislative Council and District Councils.” Yeung noted that in recent years, the situation has changed significantly, with growing restrictions on opinion polls making it increasingly difficult to gauge public sentiment. In his column programme, he plans to reflect on weekly events, analysing what they reveal about public opinion and how public sentiment interacts with the government and society.

Chris Yeung’s new programme on HKPORI’s platform, Decoding Public Sentiment, is tentatively scheduled to air every Saturday evening. The first episode will premiere for free tomorrow (11 January) at 6PM. Stay tuned to HKPORI’s YouTube channel and social media platforms for updates.

HKPORI will gradually introduce the columns by Johnny and Kenneth. The public can also preview them on HKPORI’s new website: https://www.pori.hk/member-zone/all

Support Us / Become a Member: https://www.pori.hk/support-us

09/01/2025

[Letter to Hongkong] Is 2025 the Year for Retirement? — Robert Chung

(Editor’s note: HKPORI held a press conference today to outline our development direction for the coming year and explain our decision of repositioning. The President and Chief Executive Officer, Robert Chung, authored this article to elaborate on the considerations behind the decision.)

Numerically, 2025 is a squarely neat number. It is the sum of 0+1+2+3+4+5+6+7+8+9 squared, and it is also the sum of the cubes of all these numbers. Incidentally, on 25 of January 2025, there will be a rare conjunction of six planets. These make me think: May be 2025 is a good year to retire.

I have just stepped down from my two-year presidency of the World Association for Public Opinion Research (WAPOR), so I have at least done something for Hong Kong and the world, maybe I can retire. But then I thought, “I have also promised to write a global textbook on public opinion research, seems that I cannot quit.

Looking back at Hong Kong, I have been working in the field of public opinion research for more than one-third of a century. I have witnessed a boom then a bust, and it is saddening to see the dissipation of talents. “Should I stay on?” Seems that it is not a question but an exclamation. When we left the university amidst social chaos, we had the support of countless citizens. Generosity brings responsibility.

Three years ago, I was advised to leave, and I could choose anywhere. I agreed, that everywhere can be my home. But as I said on the stage of “100% Hong Kong”, we have heavenly truth and universal love, so we do not just ask how things are, but also what we feel. I stayed.

I stayed not to fight, but to persevere. As a teenager, I was fascinated by astronomy, and I realized the persistence of the sages to the truth. The laws of the universe will not be changed by anyone. Geocentricity, heliocentrism, atheism, and all other theories may be restricted by the authorities at times, but the truth will never change. Mahatma Gandhi has taught us, “All through history the way of truth and love has always won. There have been tyrants and murderers and for a time they seem invincible but in the end, they always fall.”

Full Article in HKPORI new website: https://www.pori.hk/article/column-article-2025-01-09-robert-chung
Support us: https://www.pori.hk/support-us

09/01/2025

【民研家書】2025 是退休的好日子？ —— 鍾庭耀

（編按：香港民研今日舉行記者會，交代未來一年的發展路向及解釋香港民研重新定位的決定，主席及行政總裁鍾庭耀撰寫本文，闡述箇中思考。）

數字上， 2025 是一個非常巧妙和工整的數字，它是 0+1+2+3+4+5+6+7+8+9 的平方，也是以上所有數字三次方的總和。2025 年 1 月 25 日，六星連珠，也是能得一見的奇景。我在想：2025 看來是一個退休的好日子。

我在世界民意研究學會當了兩年會長，剛剛卸任，算是為香港和世界做了一點事，可退吧。不過，我又想：既然承諾了編寫一本全球通用的民研教科書，似乎還是退不了。

回望香港，我在民研領域工作了超過三分一個世紀，經歷先盛後衰，看著群龍散落，也感唏噓。「應否繼續堅持？」似乎不只是一個問題，而是一個感嘆。民研離開大學，在紛亂中得到無數市民的支持，是厚愛，也是責任。

三年前，友人勸我離開，要到什麼地方都可以。我同意，四海之內皆兄弟，此心安處是吾家。不過，我在「百分百香港」的舞台上說過：天地有理，人間有情。人生不僅要問理應如何，而是要問感覺怎樣？就這樣，我留了下來。

留下來，不是為了抗爭，而是為了堅持。少年的我著迷天文，領悟了先賢對真理的執着。宇宙的定律，不會因人而改。地心論、日心論、無神論、以至一切理論，可以一時受制於權柄，但真相從來不會因時制宜或因人而異。甘地說過，在歷史的長河裡，暴政必亡，真理必勝。

全文見香港民研最新網站：https://www.pori.hk/article/column-article-2025-01-09-robert-chung
支持我們：https://www.pori.hk/support-us

#香港民研 #鍾庭耀

09/01/2025

[Recognising Carers] A Qualitative Analysis of Public Perceptions of the Care Teams’ Support for Carers

In recent years, carer stress has drawn significant attention from society. The government, in its Policy Address 2024, announced plans to provide support through “Care Teams”. In November, HKPORI conducted a survey on carer support policies. Through the “Deliberative Polling” approach, the study explored public perceptions of the Care Teams’ support for carers. Findings revealed a lack of confidence in the Care Teams, concerns over insufficient transparency, and suggestions to allocate resources to professionals instead.

The government stated in the Policy Address its commitment to supporting carers, with plans to expand the “District Services and Community Care Teams – Pilot Scheme on Supporting Elderly and Carers” to all 18 districts in Hong Kong this year. Under the scheme, the Social Welfare Department will provide training to Care Teams, enabling them to proactively reach out to and identify households in need. Simultaneously, additional resources will be allocated to the Care Teams, with each team receiving an average of HKD 1.5 million annually. With 452 Care Teams across Hong Kong, this translates to an annual budget of approximately HKD 678 million.

In November, HKPORI conducted a “Deliberative Poll”, with one of the discussion topics being: “Whether Resources Should be Focused on the Care Team to Support Carers”. 14 members of the public participated in the deliberation, including 7 carers, who were randomly assigned by a computer system into two discussion groups. After deliberations, researchers used AI to transcribe the audio recordings into verbatim scripts and summarised the key points as follows:

1. Participants expressed a lack of confidence in the Care Teams, believing their operations lack transparency.

2. The funding usage by these teams is unclear, calling for accountability in reporting their effectiveness to the public.

3. It is advisable to integrate existing resources rather than duplicate efforts with new organizations to enhance service quality and efficiency.

4. The government should enhance training for Care Teams, including counseling and accompanying services, to improve service quality.

5. Care Teams lack community networks and public authority compared to district councilors, necessitating a reevaluation of their roles and functions.

6. Resources should not be prioritized for Care Teams due to overlaps with existing social welfare organizations; a reassessment of resource allocation is needed.

This self-funded survey on carer support policies by HKPORI aimed to address the growing concerns over carer stress and to advocate for the implementation of effective and appropriate carer support policies to prevent tragedies. The survey results have been uploaded to the HKPORI website and can be accessed under the “Research Results” section. HKPORI continues to conduct self-funded polls to address social needs and encourages the public to support its work by purchasing datasets or becoming members.

Note: The original text was partially extracted, reviewed, and organised into written language by researchers, then translated into English using AI tools. The original language used in discussion was Cantonese.

07/01/2025

【看見照顧者】質性分析市民對關愛隊支援照顧者的看法

照顧者壓力近年備受社會關注，政府亦在《施政報告》表示會以「關愛隊」提供支援。香港民研 11 月進行照顧者支援政策的民調研究，透過「慎思討論」了解市民對關愛隊支援照顧者的看法，發現市民對關愛隊無信心、認為其透明度不足，建議將資源撥予專業人士。

政府在《施政報告》表示着力支援照顧者，計劃於今年擴展「地區服務及關愛隊伍—支援長者及照顧者計劃」至全港十八區，由社署培訓關愛隊主動接觸和識別有需要住戶。同一時間，增撥資源予關愛隊至每支隊伍平均每年 150 萬。全港共 452 支關愛隊，換算約為 6.78 億。

香港民研 11月進行「慎思民調」，其中一個討論題目為：「應否將資源重點投放在關愛隊以支援照顧者」。14 位市民參與慎思討論，其中 7 人為照顧者，由電腦系統隨機分配在兩個討論小組。兩個小組完成討論後，研究員利用 AI 將錄音轉錄為逐字稿，並歸納重點如下：

1. 參與者對關愛隊缺乏信心，認為其運作透明度不足
2. 關愛隊的資金使用情況不明確，需要向社會報告其成效
3. 建議整合現有資源，而非重複設立新機構，以提升服務質量和效率
4. 政府應加強關愛隊的培訓，包括情緒輔導和陪診服務，以提升其服務質量
5. 關愛隊相比區議員缺乏社區網絡及公權力，因此需要重新評估其功能與角色
6. 不應優先分配資源給關愛隊，因其與現有社福機構重疊，需重新評估資源配置

香港民研是次有關照顧者支援政策的自資民調，旨在回應日益受關注的照顧者壓力問題，期望適切有效的照顧者支援政策得以落實，減少悲劇發生。調查結果現已上載到香港民研網站，公眾只要到「研究結果」一欄就可以找到。香港民研持續進行自資民調，並以回應社會需要為目標，希望大眾透過購買數據集或成為會員，支持香港民研。

註：原文摘錄部分經研究員覆核及整理為書面語，原文為廣東話。

#香港民研 #照顧者 #看見照顧者 #慎思民調 #關愛隊

04/01/2025

[The Final Letter] Robert Chung Steps Down as President of the World Association for Public Opinion Research: Advancing Without Forgetting the Essence of Polling

Robert Chung, President of HKPORI, stepped down as President of the World Association for Public Opinion Research (WAPOR) on the last day of 2024. In December, he co-authored the “President’s Letter” with incoming President Christian Haerpfer, marking his final letter to members.

In the letter, Chung noted that the WAPOR community had surpassed 1,000 members by the end of 2024. However, he emphasised that an important step forward is to pause periodically and reflect on the nature of public opinion research, which is precisely what the WAPOR 2024 Annual Conference aimed to address. The theme of this year’s conference was “The Soul of Public Opinion Research: Liberty, Quality, and Humanity”. Concluding his letter, Chung expressed gratitude to the WAPOR team, describing his two-year term as a once in a lifetime experience.

Incoming President Christian Haerpfer thanked Chung for leading WAPOR to host the most successful annual conference ever in South Korea in 2024 and for achieving growth in WAPOR’s membership. Haerpfer also mentioned that WAPOR will host its 78th Annual Conference this year, inviting colleagues to submit paper abstracts. He highlighted that one of WAPOR’s key missions this year is to be a voice for global public opinion research and to defend the reputation of commercial as well as academic survey research.

“There is an increasing number of political interventions and accusations against public opinion research, for example recently in the USA and Serbia, and we have to deliver strong responses to those unfair and unjust attacks on the integrity and reputation of public opinion research.” Haerpfer wrote.

04/01/2025

【最後的信】鍾庭耀卸任世界民意研究學會會長：前進時不忘民研本質

香港民研主席鍾庭耀，在 2024 年最後一天卸任世界民意研究學會（WAPOR）會長一職。他在 12 月與新任會長 Christian Haerpfer 聯合撰寫「會長的話」，也是他最後一封寫給會員的信。

他在信中提到，WAPOR 的社群人數在 2024 結束前夕終於突破 1,000 人。但他提醒，向前邁進的一個重要步驟是定期停一停、仔細想想民意研究工作所為何事，這也正正是 WAPOR 2024 年會想要回應的，這一屆年會的主題是「民意研究的靈魂：自由權利、專業素養及人文精神」。他在信末感謝 WAPOR 團隊，形容兩年任期是他一生中難得的經驗。

接棒的新任會長 Christian Haerpfer 在信中感謝鍾庭耀帶領 WAPOR 於 2024 年在南韓舉辦了史上最成功的年會，以及 WAPOR 社群人數取得突破。他又表示，WAPOR 本年度將舉辦第 78 屆年會，誠邀同業提交論文摘要，指今年 WAPOR 的一項重要任務是為全球民意研究發聲，捍衛商業及學術調查研究的聲譽。

「越來越多針對民意研究的政治干預和指控，例如最近在美國和塞爾維亞，我們必須對這些對民意研究的誠信和聲譽的不公平和不公正攻擊作出有力的回應。」Christian Haerpfer 寫道。

#香港民研 #鍾庭耀 #世界民意研究學會