23/07/2026
🆕 New publication from our *one and only* lab head, Prof. John Halley, in the Journal of Mathematical Biology! 🎉
ℹ️ The paper explores an important question that gained renewed attention during the COVID-19 pandemic: how can epidemics grow faster than exponentially? 📈🦠
🔎 *What did he find?* | By extending the classical SIR model to incorporate the emergence of increasingly transmissible variants, the study demonstrates that hyper-exponential growth can arise naturally from evolutionary processes. It also derives explicit mathematical expressions describing when this behaviour emerges, how it eventually collapses as susceptible individuals are depleted, and why stochasticity plays such a crucial role.
💡*What more?* | Beyond infectious diseases, these findings may have broader implications for understanding rapidly evolving biological and societal systems, from cancer evolution to technological innovation. [aka “How cool is that? 😎]
📖 *Wanna know more?* | Check the paper below 👇
Halley, J.M. (2026) *Hyper-exponential growth in an epidemic model: some explicit solutions and their significance* | Journal of Mathematical Biology, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00285-026-02437-8
Laboratory of Ecology - EcoLab BET
Τμήμα Βιολογικών Εφαρμογών & Τεχνολογιών
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The COVID-19 pandemic highlighted the ability of epidemics to evolve through the emergence of successive strains of greater infectiousness, which prompted the insight that hyper-exponential growth (HEG) can arise in the development of an epidemic. The phenomenon of HEG has intrigued many researchers...