01/09/2025
Prynhawn da pawb / Good afternoon all,
Today was the start of the new academic year here in the UK. I hope that it was a positive experience for all learners, and school staff too!
What is the link between maths and conspiracy theories? This video by Jeff Galak of Data Demystified demonstrates.
As the video explains, probability shows that a conspiracy theory that is actually true is highly likely to be found out. This is because it is highly likely that those involved in the conspiracy speak out. An example of when this has occurred was the case of the Tuskegee Experiments, which were found to be true when someone involved in them spoke out.
The probability of a true conspiracy theory being found out increases as the number of people involved increases, and as time goes on. This makes it highly improbable that a true conspiracy theory is kept hidden by those involved. Therefore, a conspiracy theory in which no one involved has spoken out is highly unlikely to be true, with the likelihood decreasing still further as time goes on.
This video refers to the academic paper “On the Viability of Conspiratorial Beliefs”. I have included the link to this paper in the comments section. The paper's abstract states that “historical examples of exposed conspiracies do exist and it may be difficult for people to differentiate between reasonable and dubious assertions. In this work, we establish a simple mathematical model for conspiracies involving multiple actors with time, which yields failure probability for any given conspiracy.”
If you have time to watch the video and/or read the paper I would highly recommend doing so.
Enjoy!
Sarah 🙂
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