12/04/2024
Wow! I find it absolutely fascinating!
So, I was on vacation for about 2 weeks… from 29th Mar to 10th Apr, and to my surprise. Everything I have drawn, the entire Technical Analysis I have laid out ( the Resistance Support levels that have had the most weight on the market), still stood, meaning the market again and again responded decisively! Absolutely Fascinating.
So, let’s see what gave the most weight.
26𝐭𝐡 𝐌𝐚𝐫, 13:00 𝐆𝐌𝐓+1: market formed a strong Resistance level, and responded bearish. And continued to fall lower.
Overall, High Impact fundamental news continued to be Bullish for the Dollar and bearish for the Euro.
29𝐭𝐡 𝐌𝐚𝐫𝐜𝐡: Which is surprising to see. After all, Monthly announcements such as USD Goods Trade balance, Personal Income, and Core PCE Price Index were all worse than expected. Except for Personal Spending. And yet, EUR/USD was bearish. The Bears scored a point all the way from the 16th of Feb and pulled back, completely lost control and the Bulls took over.
4𝐭𝐡 𝐀𝐩𝐫, 15:00, 𝐆𝐌𝐓+1: Until they (Bulls) were faced with a backside resistance level and a converging point. A strong rejection formed at the 1.0876 level. Let’s see if the market had a fundamental reason as well.
Yes! Eurozone has overall performed better than expected in HCOB Services PMI, for the month, while USD has performed worse than expected for the month. So, no! This does not make sense as the EURUSD should have been rallying, but instead, it has dropped to 71 pips.
5𝐭𝐡 𝐀𝐩𝐫.: formed a strong bullish support formation (a great trading opportunity) with a 1:1 RvR ratio! USD was performing with better than expected Unemployment Rate and Non-Farm Payrolls. Until..
9𝐭𝐡 𝐀𝐩𝐫.: Bulls were faced with a strong (again) Resistance level again, and I see a convergence point…ah, what a shame! I was having a beautiful holiday day on that day and missed a great bearish trading opportunity (Market offering a second chance). Why?
𝐎𝐧 10𝐭𝐡 𝐀𝐩𝐫.: I come home in the morning. Had not slept all night, waiting for the early flight home, and in the meanwhile! The USD fundamental announcement with High Impact has come out and the Inflation Rate, CPI s.a, Core Inflation Rate MoM, Core Inflation Rate YoY, and Inflation Rate YoY in March have all performed better than expected and the EUR/USD dropped 100 pips.
Well, I missed all that. But I thought I would not miss the second wave!
𝐀𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐟𝐚𝐬𝐜𝐢𝐧𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐭𝐨 𝐬𝐞𝐞, 𝐭𝐡𝐚𝐭 𝐚𝐥𝐥 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐚𝐧𝐚𝐥𝐲𝐬𝐢𝐬 𝐈 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐝𝐨𝐧𝐞 𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐤𝐬 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐤𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐞, 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐨𝐧𝐞𝐬 𝐭𝐡𝐚𝐭 𝐡𝐨𝐥𝐝 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐦𝐨𝐬𝐭 𝐰𝐞𝐢𝐠𝐡𝐭, 𝐬𝐭𝐢𝐥𝐥 𝐬𝐭𝐨𝐨𝐝 𝐚𝐥𝐥 𝐰𝐡𝐢𝐥𝐞 𝐈 𝐰𝐚𝐬 𝐠𝐨𝐧𝐞.
Is anyone trading all waiting on the sidelines?
PS
Fine print: Not all lines, such as the counter dash red trendline, are valid anymore. Some trendlines need to be readjusted.
