The Realistic Trader

18/04/2024

Perusing through social media I can see some wobbling minds.

Minds that are letting short term price action alter their emotions which are then negatively altering their sound and pragmatic longer term thinking.

In 99.99% of humans, emotions affect belief systems which affect thoughts which bring on action. Let's call it the Action Loop.

Part of being a capable person in society and also a competent trader is understanding how external stimuli affects you in that Action Loop.

One who panics and worries about frickin anything and everything is not going to perform well in life. As is someone too blasé and does nothing, even when confronted by overwhelming stimuli. Balance is key.

When it comes to Trading, a good mental anchoring trick I keep in my mind is this:

If price moves adversely WHEN NO ADVERSE FUNDAMENTAL CHANGES HAVE HAPPENED, then you can ignore it and treat it like a wonderful buying opportunity. (Time frame of judgement is key here of course).

If bad s**t happens and price reacts accordingly, then you need to avoid panic dumping at the bottom of a big ass devil candle, but bang out on a pull back. Prime example is Wonderland TIME. Treasury Manager was exposed as a convict. Price dumped, I got out on a 50% pullback then never touched it again.

So bringing us all forward to now... What's happened? F**k all really. General noise, war fears yah de yah de yah. Snore. This is just markets in general. We went through an almost similar external stimuli set a couple years ago when the Ukraine scam broke out. Look what happened to PRICE 2 months later...

Ultimately, fundamentals have NOT CHANGED. Dollar is still dog s**t. As is all fiat. BTC hasn't been hacked. SHA256 is still secure. The Internet still works. Bittensor and Kaspa are still awesome, both with epic announcements inbound in the pipeline. Tokenomics haven't changed. Etc etc.

So chill winstaaan... Always reset your mind and stack on reality pancake after reality pancake. This is what will help you see through the smog.

This is EXACTLY why I utterly REFUSE to watch any crypto YouTuber or X crypto Guru or anything. I refuse to listen to anyone that's not a billionaire (for money matters) or one who's undeniably exquisite in their craft. Keep your mind clean. Eliminate 90% of the noise you open your mind to.

When it comes to crypto, I bet 99% of the 'gurus' have never played with a pot more than $1m. And believe me, with size comes extra nuances. It really isn't as simple as "just doing everything as percentages and it's all the same". Order book depth is thin through most crypto...which is why it's so so easy to manipulate price and fool the sheep...

16/04/2024

Been tagged a bunch of times about someone posting some bearish TA on $TAO. He may be right. Anything could happen. But here are my thoughts...

In Trading I don't really care for being right or wrong. That's what newbies are obsessed with. All I care about is making money. And it's critical you apply the correct methods for the correct market with the correct time horizon. I'm not a day trader. So I don't give a s**t about short term fluctuations. Price does not dictate if a project is doing good or not!

When it comes to $TAO which makes up most of my portfolio, I'm in this for the pure macroeconomics, tokenomics and fundamentals of it and around it. As such, my exit eyes are around Q4 next year. So I don't care about short term fluctuations. Dips are just buying opportunities.

Also the yield I get every day from staking is constantly lowering my average entry level.

In terms of the chart I've been tagged on, sure, it could happen. But is an exponential vector now due to the sprawling growth of its subnets. And price is also exponent in fashion, hence why you must look at the log chart for $TAO.

Currently, the big support level hasn't been breached and confirmed. It's merely tickling it. Thus, I still think we will see $1000+ by end of May. If I'm wrong, end of June.

12/04/2024

Here's a little charting rundown I did the other day... $TAO $KAS $BTC

The Realistic Trader Community is the perfect place for newbies and existing Traders to learn how to trade PROPERLY and actually make profits. This is done b...

05/10/2023

I've found over the years that the symbiotic relationship between Business & Trading ebbs and flows.

1.) To begin with, your Biz builds up the capital for your Trading/Investing pots, only for you to be a numpty and blow it all.

2.) So you continue running the biz and eventually you start Trading/Investing more consistently and profitably.

3.) This gives you more confidence to chuck in more/bigger chunks of capital into your pot from your biz. You finally nail it.

4.) Eventually, once you've achieved the critical threshold of personal competency on the markets AND your pot is big enough, your Trading/Investing then starts to make more money than your biz/bizzes.

THIS is the true path to wealth in my eyes. So for biz owners here, I made a little quiz for you...

The Entrepreneur's Trading & Investing Quiz:

A good biz owner is also a good Investor. Eventually, if done right, your investments will help grow your business much faster! Give this quick quiz a go to see how you do...

27/09/2023

Everyone is excited about the $BTC ETF filing debacle that's going on. It's great for it really is. We have Banks, Billionaires and Countries all trying to jump into the teeny paddling pool that is $BTC. And if Blackrock, Fidelity and Vanguard are getting into it, you just know it's an asset that's going to be around for a while.

But this isn't what makes me excited...

The institutional (Alan Partridge style) 'ah-haaa' moment is due to Bitcoin Jesus's Michael Saylor


This new model has all the pros of a BTC spot ETF, but none of the cons in my opinion. And it will bring in more meaningful fresh capital than the ETFs.

Hear me out...

23/09/2023

You need to be careful with sudden wealth/liquidity events in your life. Most people will squander all of it. Get your head around this 'champagne problem' now... Especially if you're a $KAS HODLer...

P.S. If this sounds a bit weird, I sped up the video x 1.5.

18/09/2023

This bull market, you CAN have your cake AND eat it!

Lever the hindsight knowledge of people that are 2-3 $BTC cycles in and most will give you the same hiccups and errors.

Some of which are:

☠️Pussied out too early as price started going vertical. Only to then FOMO in at elevated levels and got wrecked on the way down.

☠️Rode an asset all the way up, never snatched profits and rode it all the way down.

☠️Got caught up too much in a project. Falling in love with something will hurt you. When the chart says to get out, get out!

☠️Not having clear and reasonable anticipated market cap valuations of your assets to take profits at. Do this by looking at the sector your crypto is in, looking at other leading coins in that field and their market cap and percentage market share of the total crypto market cap and market share of that niche.

✅Having a hard bang-out date. For me, based on the BTC cycles, I'm out out on 1st Dec 2025. Will then sit on my hands for a few months and observe...


☠️Don't become complacent. Getting rich in crypto is the first mini step in your Wealth Generation journey. If you nail this bull market, chances are, you're going to bleed all your profits in the real world. So you NEEEEEED to ensure you upgrade your brain with business skills. Knowing how to grow and protect your money outside of crypto. Biz and crypto are beneficially symbiotic when you get it right.

☠️Don't over trade. Spot holders generally outperform active traders.

✅Sort out your tax stuff NOW. Not later. Otherwise you could end up giving the taxman a hefty chunk. No matter where you live, there are MANY ways you can sort your finances out now so you bypass capital gains taxes.

☠️Don't end up with an unmanageable portfolio of like 50+ coins. I remember in 2017 I had like 80 coins/tokens and lost loads because of wallet mismanagement and forgetting keys etc etc. You don't need more than 12! And if you have that many, make sure they're in different crypto sectors.

✅Also make sure you have exposure to sectors that are most likely going to boom. RWA, AI, DEXs, Gaming, Interoperability etc etc.

☠️Misunderstanding that HODLing as a strategy is great, but ONLY if you understand WHEN you need to HODL. You DO NOT HODL during bear markets! This is something that everyone seems to be oblivious about. Selling your stash in a bear market doesn't mean you're betraying your beloved project! Diamond-hands and HODLing is disastrous in a bear market. YOU HODL DURING ACCUMULATION AND BULL MARKETS. YOU SIDESTEP DURING BEAR MARKETS!

☠️For the love of sweet baby Elon, don't leave your crypto in an exchange!!!

I could go on, but these are the main ones I have seen many people falter on over the years! Hope it helps!

04/09/2023

If a friend was in a burning house, the ONLY reason he/she needs to exit the building is.... because the house is on effing fire!

But then you get some people saying things like, "Yeah I get that, but it's not enough of a reason. What other reasons should I leave the building? I read somewhere that it's foolish to just run out of buildings without a lot of research and my financial advisor said to be wary" - Your friend evidently doesn't get it.

Continuing this analogy, the ONLY and MAIN reason for one to get out of fiat and into Crypto/Bitcoin is..... Establishments will forever pump M2 which erodes fiat purchasing power/wealth and with the advent of CBDCs it's fundamentally important for you/your family's freedom, optionality and well-being to have full monetary-sovereignty. Everything else Bitcoin gives you is a bonus.

THAT is the 'your house is on f***ing fire dude!' equivalent reason.

But we can extend this same thinking in the same vein to the question I see a lot which is:

"Why should I get into $Kaspa $KAS Siam"?

I'm sure many people could reel off a nice list such as:
⚡️ Fastest BlockDAG powered PoW on the planet with soon to be 10 BPS and eventually 32/100 BPS.

🚫🏦 No pre-mine, no pre-sale, no VCs, no ICO and fairly launched into the world, thereby making it as "SEC-Proof" as you can get.

🚀Near instant transaction speeds with 10 second finality. And will only improve when BPS increases.

🌍 Borderless, stateless, censorship resistant with no company or team behind it. Everyone is a volunteer, just like $BTC.

💡 Energy efficient. Won't be long before all KAS ASIC miners are 100% powered by renewables. Give it 3-10 years. Data efficient too. Each miner/node doesn't need to download terra-bytes or peta-bytes of blockchain data...

⚙️ Soon to be properly parameterless and will adapt to actual network conditions instead of having an arbitrary network lag, i.e. 10 min blocks in BTC.

🛡️ DAGKNIGHT implementation, major listings and smart contracts inbound. Just imagine the hype train when this get going. Cardano, a smart contract DApp platform absolutely mooned despite not having a single Dapp for years!🦇

⛏️ Hashrate parabolic and price hasn't spiked up to catch up yet.

👨‍💼 Founded by one of the smartest people in Crypto,

the most cited person in crypto and is 10 years in the making. Just researching GHOST, SPECTRE, GHOSTDAG and DAGKNIGHT should be enough to blow your mind...

👩‍💻Has some of the most talented devs in Crypto

and



📈 Based on the above, it has a low-risk high probability outcome scenario that it should achieve a pessimistic $100B market cap by Dec 2025 or at least a 5% market share of the whole crypto market...

🌐 When DAGKNIGHT goes live, throughput is only limited to HARDWARE, not software (game-changer), confirmation finality is limited to the actual roundtrip speed of the internet/server (imagine KAS speeds when the average global internet speed decreases by a factor of 10 over time!!!) and liveness resistance is strong. Arguably safer than $BTC despite far lower hashrate thus far.

These reasons are great n all...but ultimately, none of that really matters.

The crucial, pivotal burning house reason (for me) is...... It's the fastest PoW system that has properly solved the Trilemma that is stateless and censorship resistant.

Cue: "Yeah but, yeah but..."

Seriously, that should be the ONLY reason you need.

If you don't fully understand that reason, I strongly suggest you spend at least 10 focused hours on why this is important.

Hell, watch the

interview with Bitcoin Jesus

- Everything he said in this excellent interview applies to Kaspa too.

This is why it's hard to explain $KAS to new crypto people. First they must understand why $BTC is so fundamental. Only then will they truly understand the paradigm shift of $Kaspa...

Of course, this is my considered opinion. But you don't know what you don't know... what have I missed?

What & where's the inbound bullet out of my peripheral vision which will hurt my portfolio and put egg on my face in 2 years?

Feel free to share the post. I genuinely welcome reasoned detracting answers here... 🥰

01/09/2023

Holding a live chat/debate about all the pros and cons of the crazy new crypto whipping up a storm called Kaspa. Join us for a nice balanced debate on X Spaces.

Starts at 1800 UK time: https://twitter.com/i/spaces/1LyxBqWnolkJN?s=20

22/08/2023

In this video, https://youtube.com/watch?v=S2Ndx02dl08 I analyse key macro charts indicating an upcoming economic meltdown. Forecasted by 3 massive indicators that have been spot on over the last 80 years.

While crypto might be affected temporarily, Bitcoin should disconnect from traditional markets during the crisis. The ongoing shift towards AI, robots, CBDCs, and global consolidation adds complexity, but also immense GDP buoyancy over time. Regardless, accumulating Bitcoin consistently is the easiest and most prudent thing for the average Joe to protect themselves from eroding purchasing power. For those with a bit more know-how, all in on $KAS... It's $BTC but a lot better...

Highlights:
📊 Fed funds rate spikes precede recessions; history repeats.

📉 Unemployment rate lows historically align with stock market crashes.

📈 Surging inflation has typically been a prelude to economic downturns.

💱 Bitcoin might disconnect from traditional markets during the crisis.

🌍 Ongoing AI, robots, CBDCs, and global consolidation add uncertainty.

Time Stamps:

00:00: Introduction and overview of macro charts.
02:46: Unemployment rate and its correlation with crashes.
03:55: Inflation's historical impact on the economy.
05:01: Bitcoin's potential disconnection from traditional markets.
06:01: Handling potential market crash and Bitcoin's role.
08:11: Relationship between interest rates, debt, and GDP.
11:10: Speculation on the owners of the Federal Reserve.
12:49: Impact of CBDCs on commercial banks.
14:04: Predicting the duration and aftermath of the crash.
16:46: Speculation on the future trajectory of global governance.
18:48: Crypto as a solution during economic turmoil 21:09: Comparing mental health benefits and firearm ownership.
22:21: Analysing Japan's economic situation and global investments.
24:08: Potential repercussions of Japan's yield curve control.
25:18: Implications of Bank of Japan's shift in the global bond market.

In this video, I analyse key macro charts indicating an upcoming recession. Fed funds rate spikes historically precede recessions, visible in grey zones. Une...

10/08/2023

Was on a Crypto Expert Panel today. Here are my lil snippets: https://youtube.com/watch?v=9_nEApiPXgI

The masses are statistically not rich and they believe in Diversification...

Diversification will never enable one to achieve wealth in a time efficient manner...

Instead, you need to identify your desired CAGR and find the relevant vehicle that will achieve it...

The amount of capital you put into an asset must be directly proportional to the depth of knowledge you have in that asset/field.

BTC always enters the Bull market first, then alts eventually catch up...

Not a fan of stops as people will actively hunt stops. Instead, it's best to use price alerts at a certain level and then a hard stop far beyond. In a position which invalidates the original premise of the trade.

Having stops means you're keeping assets on a Centralised Exchange (CEX), big no no...

Don't HODL blindly indefinitely.

Look out for major base support breaches...

Blackrock and Fidelity are jumping into Crypto...Crypto will likely be around for a long time...

Don't be a person to get advice, you need to BECOME the person that doesn't need to seek advice.

Get basic understanding on on-chain analytics, they help give rough ball park of the state of the market.

Understanding tokenomics. Never ending expansion of the currency supply, what's the answer? Deflationary assets...

Look at the trends. AI, block DAGs, real world asset tokenisation...

Look into Yonatan Sompolinsky!

Summary:The masses are statistically not rich and they believe in Diversification...Diversification will never enable one to achieve wealth in a time efficie...