Tim's Wealth Letter

16/10/2026

The bull market turned four on Monday. Over the past fifty years, every bull market that reached its fourth birthday went on to reach its fifth.

The thing to watch is the cost of money. America's ten-year borrowing rate is 5.2%, the highest in years. If the government pays that, for zero risk, shares have to keep earning more to justify their price.

For your shares, nothing changes. The people who sold at the bottom four years ago locked in the loss. The people who kept buying got the 118%. Keep buying, and don't try to call the top.

This week's letter, in full:

The S&P 500 is up 118% since its October 2022 low. In pounds a UK tracker made about 83%. Why the gap, why nobody needed a fund manager, and what year five of a bull market usually looks like.

16/10/2026

TWL Morning Briefing - Friday 16th October

Yesterday the S&P 500 rose 0.3% and the Nasdaq 0.1%, after both were down earlier in the day. Chipmakers recovered after Nvidia's Jensen Huang said he didn't believe CoreWeave would need a bailout from Nvidia, which eased the worry that circular financing has been inflating AI demand.

Oil is near $97 this morning, down 1%, but still on course for a weekly gain of more than 6%. US futures point lower, with Nasdaq futures down 0.5%.

In our portfolio, QXO rose 8.2%, a day after hitting a 52-week low. Etsy rose 7.5% as takeover talk around eBay lifted the online marketplaces. Estee Lauder and Advance Auto Parts both rose 5.5%.

Strategies & current holdings are all on the Tim's Wealth Letter website: timswealthletter.com

15/10/2026

The S&P 500 is up 118% in the four years since October 2022. Nobody managed that.

A plain S&P 500 tracker got the whole lot. A fund manager charging 1% a year would have taken a chunk of it for the privilege of doing the same thing.

Most of what I write rests on one idea: a cheap S&P 500 tracker, bought regularly and left alone, will perform better than most financial advisers. The last four years are the argument for it.

If that's new to you, the letter is free every week, and this week's is a good place to start.

This week's letter, in full:

The S&P 500 is up 118% since its October 2022 low. In pounds a UK tracker made about 83%. Why the gap, why nobody needed a fund manager, and what year five of a bull market usually looks like.

15/10/2026

TWL Morning Briefing - Thursday 15th October

Yesterday the S&P 500 fell 1.1% and the Nasdaq 1.9%, its worst day since July. September inflation came in at 3.7%, above the 3.6% expected, and traders raised their bets on another Fed rate hike at the end of the month. Tech took the brunt of it, while healthcare rose.

Oil is near $94 this morning, down 1%. US futures point lower again, with Nasdaq futures down almost 1%.

The September retail sales figures land at 1:30 pm today.

In our portfolio, Etsy rose 4.6%, its seventh straight gain, and Pfizer 3%. Generac fell 7.6%, and QXO 6.3% to a new 52-week low.

Strategies & current holdings are all on the Tim's Wealth Letter website: timswealthletter.com

14/10/2026

You've probably seen the headline: the S&P 500 is up 118% in four years. Then you looked at your own tracker and it hasn't quite doubled.

Nothing's wrong. The S&P 500 is priced in dollars, and you hold it in pounds. So your return is the index's return, plus or minus what the pound did against the dollar.

On 12 October 2022 a pound bought $1.11. Today it buys about $1.32. The pound got stronger, so every dollar of gain is worth fewer pounds when it comes home. The same tracker that's up 118% in dollars is up about 83% in pounds. Call it 90% once you add the dividends.

It cuts both ways. When the pound falls, your American shares are worth more in pounds. Over decades it mostly washes out.

Still a very good four years, and still with nobody taking a cut.

This week's letter, in full:

The S&P 500 is up 118% since its October 2022 low. In pounds a UK tracker made about 83%. Why the gap, why nobody needed a fund manager, and what year five of a bull market usually looks like.

14/10/2026

TWL Morning Briefing - Wednesday 14th October

Yesterday the S&P 500 finished flat and the Nasdaq fell 0.2%. Chipmakers led the fall again on fresh worries about AI spending.

Oil is near $95 this morning. US futures are flat ahead of the September inflation figures, which land at 1:30 pm today.

In our portfolio, Comstock Resources rose 4% as natural gas prices climbed 3.5%. QXO rose 3.6%, Cooper-Standard 3.3% and Etsy 3.1%.

Strategies & current holdings are all on the Tim's Wealth Letter website: timswealthletter.com

13/10/2026

Four years ago this week, nobody wanted to buy shares. Inflation was 10%, the Bank of England was stopping pension funds going under, and every paper was calling a recession. On 12 October 2022 the S&P 500 closed at 3,577. On Monday it closed at 7,807, up 118%. Nobody managed that and nobody timed it. A plain, cheap tracker got the whole lot. It's all in my free weekly letter, and you get the first three chapters of my book when you join: https://timswealthletter.com/free-chapters?utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=reel

13/10/2026

Four years ago this week, nobody wanted to buy shares.

It was October 2022. Inflation was 10%. The Bank of England was buying gilts in an emergency to stop pension funds going under. The Chancellor was sacked on the Friday and the Prime Minister went the week after. Every paper was calling a recession.

On 12 October that year the S&P 500 closed at 3,577. That was the bottom.

On Monday it closed at 7,807. Up 118% in four years.

Nobody managed that. A plain, cheap S&P 500 tracker got the whole lot. And nobody timed it, because the best day to buy in the whole run was the day that felt most like the end of the world.

If you hold your tracker in pounds you haven't quite doubled. I explain why in the letter.

This week's letter, in full:

The S&P 500 is up 118% since its October 2022 low. In pounds a UK tracker made about 83%. Why the gap, why nobody needed a fund manager, and what year five of a bull market usually looks like.

13/10/2026

TWL Morning Briefing - Tuesday 13th October

Yesterday the S&P 500 slipped 0.1% and the Nasdaq fell 0.4%. Memory chipmakers led the fall.

Oil is near $93 this morning, down 1.1% after climbing yesterday on weekend strikes on Riyadh's airport. US futures are mixed, with the Nasdaq pointing lower.

Earnings season starts today with the big banks. The September inflation figures land at 1:30 pm tomorrow.

In our portfolio, VF Corp rose 5.3% after JPMorgan upgraded the shares to neutral. Diageo rose 2.1% and Estee Lauder 2%.

Strategies & current holdings are all on the Tim's Wealth Letter website: timswealthletter.com

12/10/2026

The S&P 500 closed at a record on Tuesday. In the same week, the British government's thirty-year borrowing cost went past 6%, its highest since 1998.

Those two things pull in opposite directions. If lending the government money for thirty years pays 6% a year, shares have to beat that to be worth the risk, and a market at a record is priced as if they comfortably will. Yet America added just 29,000 jobs last month, oil is near $100, and most of the shares in the index are going down.

So either borrowing costs come back down and the record is justified, or they don't and the market falls. I don't know which, and nobody else does either.

What I do know is that none of it changes the plan. We don't try to time the market. A record high is not a reason to stop buying.

This week's letter, in full:

Most people spend hours researching a fridge and never check what their pension charges or holds. Here's the five-minute check, and what a 1% fee costs over forty years.