Institute of Hazard, Risk and Resilience

🌊 Upcoming IHRR Seminar: The Atlantic multi-decadal variability will shape climate change over the coming decades

We’re excited to welcome Professor Noel Keenlyside (University of Bergen, Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, and Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center) for a fascinating seminar exploring how natural Atlantic Ocean variability continues to shape our climate—past, present, and future.

January marked the fifth warmest month globally on record, yet climate patterns across Europe and North Africa have been anything but uniform. From harsh northern winters to extreme flooding in Morocco, understanding these contrasts requires a closer look at the Atlantic’s powerful influence.
In this seminar, Professor Keenlyside will discuss:
🔹 How Atlantic multi-decadal variability (AMV) significantly affects high‑latitude climate
🔹 Why the current Arctic warming has striking parallels to the early 20th century
🔹 Evidence showing AMV contributed to around 60% of past Arctic and Greenland warming
🔹 What a shift toward a negative AMV phase may mean for near‑term climate trends—including potential suppression of Arctic warming
🔹 How internal climate dynamics can improve near‑term projections and climate services

About the Speaker
Professor Noel Keenlyside is a leading expert in climate dynamics, modelling, and prediction. He heads the Bjerknes Climate Prediction Unit and has led major international projects focused on improving climate prediction and understanding climate impacts. His work spans from Earth–Ecosystem modelling to advancing global climate services.

This is a timely and insightful session for anyone working in climate research, environmental risk, or global policy.

📅 Don’t miss it!
Join us to gain a deeper understanding of the complex drivers shaping climate change in the decades ahead. Sign up here: https://lnkd.in/e9_xJfDE

🌟 Now Open: IHRR Seedcorn Funds for Research & Outreach (2025/26) 🌟

The Institute of Hazard, Risk and Resilience (IHRR) is delighted to open applications for our 2025/26 Seedcorn Funds, supporting early‑stage research and outreach across Durham University.

These small, competitive awards (up to £2,000) are designed to help develop new ideas, test feasibility, build collaborations, and pave the way for future externally funded work.

🔍 Who can apply?
The Seedcorn Funds are an internal Durham University resource designed to support the development of research proposals and outreach initiatives in the broad fields of hazard, risk and resilience.

📅 Application deadline:
Monday 2nd March, 12 noon
ℹ️ Full details and application link:
👉 https://lnkd.in/ergtWb9T

We also encourage applicants to consider joining the IHRR community as:
• IHRR Fellows (DU staff)
• IHRR Associate Fellows (DU students)
—offering access to networking, events, and collaborative opportunities.

If you're developing an idea and need support to take the next step, we’d love to hear from you. Let’s grow impactful research together 🌱

🌍 IHRR Seminar Announcement

Exploring the risks of glacier decline for water, energy, and food security
with Dr Caroline Clason

We’re excited to welcome Dr Caroline Clason, Associate Professor in Physical Geography at Durham University and Co‑Director of the Institute of Hazard, Risk and Resilience, for a thought‑provoking seminar on one of the most urgent challenges facing our planet.

💧 “Thousands have lived without love, but not one without water.” — W.H. Auden

As the climate warms, glaciers retreat and mountain snowpacks diminish, threatening the natural “water towers” that millions rely on. This seminar will delve into the trends, drivers, and cascading risks of glacier decline—exploring how changes in freshwater availability impact water security, energy production, and food systems across the globe.

Dr Clason will share insights from high‑mountain regions including the Andes and Himalayas, highlighting what the future may hold and how communities, researchers, and policymakers can work together to mitigate and adapt to a rapidly changing cryosphere.

🔎 About the speaker:
Dr Clason specialises in glacier and ice‑sheet hydrology, glacier-fed water security, and glacier-related hazards. Her work championed interdisciplinary approaches, citizen science, art‑science collaborations, and community-led knowledge co‑production. She brings a powerful lens of environmental justice to understanding risks in high‑mountain and polar environments.

📅 Monday 26th January 20206
📍2-3pm in person - TLC106 or on Teams (register below)
https://lnkd.in/e2_jSwzp

If you’re interested in climate resilience, environmental change, or global water security, this is a session you won’t want to miss.

✨ Join us to better understand Earth’s disappearing ice—and what we can do about it.

🎉 Celebrating an Excellent Paper Award for IHRR Research!

We’re delighted to share that Dr Ashutosh Kumar, Visiting Fellow at the Institute of Hazard, Risk and Resilience (IHRR), has received the prestigious Excellent Paper Award from the Association for Computer Methods and Advances in Geomechanics (IACMAG).

This award recognises outstanding research published in leading peer‑reviewed journals—an achievement that highlights the quality and impact of Ashutosh’s work.

👏 The awarded paper was co‑authored with
• Dr Arash Azizi (formerly Durham University, Department of Engineering)
• Professor David Toll (former IHRR Co‑Director)

Their research showcases a suction monitoring setup developed at Durham University for cyclic triaxial testing, used to explore how weather‑driven suction and moisture fluctuations affect compacted soils in railway embankments in South Africa. This work is a valuable contribution to understanding how critical infrastructure responds to environmental change.

📄 Publication:
Application of Suction Monitoring for Cyclic Triaxial Testing of Compacted Soils
Ashutosh Kumar*, Arash Azizi & David G. Toll (2022)
ASCE Journal of Geotechnical and Geoenvironmental Engineering
DOI: https://lnkd.in/ehNHSQw9

⭐ Learn more about the IACMAG Excellent Paper Award:
https://lnkd.in/e8j7y_Qx
https://lnkd.in/eFGkUJ3h

A huge congratulations to Ashutosh and co-authors on this well‑deserved recognition. Their work continues to strengthen Durham University’s reputation for world‑leading research in geomechanics and resilience.

🎉 Congratulations to Professor Kostas Nikolopoulos, Co-Director of IHRR, on the launch of his latest book.

We were delighted to celebrate the recent book launch by Professor Kostas Nikolopoulos, Co-Director of the Institute of Hazard, Risk and Resilience (IHRR).

The event marked not only the publication of an important new book, but also a chance to recognise Kostas’s long-standing contribution to research at the intersection of risk, forecasting, decision-making and resilience. His work continues to shape thinking across disciplines and has real-world relevance in an increasingly uncertain world.

Congratulations, Kostas & your Co authors, on this fantastic achievement — and thank you for the leadership, insight and inspiration you bring to IHRR and the wider research community.

🎉 Grant success at IHRR! 🎉

We’re delighted to share that Dr Ellen Robson (PDRA, Institute of Hazard, Risk and Resilience – IHRR) is leading a new international project that has been awarded a US$100k grant from the Coalition for Disaster Resilient Infrastructure (CDRI) through its Infrastructure Resilience Academic Exchange (IRAX) programme.
Alongside co-leads Professor Bruce D Malamud (Director, IHRR, Durham University) and Dr Ashutosh Kumar (Indian Institute of Technology, Mandi), the team will develop the Primer on Disaster Resilient Infrastructure (PoDRI) — a high-quality, self-paced, open-access online course designed to strengthen global capacity for disaster-resilient infrastructure.

Running from December 2025 to October 2026, the project brings together partners from Durham University (UK), IIT Mandi (India) and the University of Canterbury (New Zealand), supported by an outstanding international advisory group spanning academia and industry.

PoDRI will provide foundational and applied learning for a wide range of stakeholders — from students and researchers to policymakers, engineers, financiers and disaster risk reduction professionals — helping bridge critical gaps in disaster resilience knowledge worldwide.

👏 Congratulations to Ellen and the whole team on this fantastic achievement!

Our December IHRR Newsletter is out!

Full of fresh updates, timely insights, and important dates for your calendar.

If you didn’t see it in your inbox today, now’s a great time to join our mailing list — we’ll send our latest news directly to you each month.
👉 Sign up and stay in the loop! Visit durham.ac.uk/ihrr

📣 IHRR Announces New Co-Directors Strengthening Leadership in Hazard, Risk & Resilience

The Institute of Hazard, Risk and Resilience (IHRR) is delighted to announce the appointment of four new Co-Directors, who joined the Institute’s leadership team. Each brings deep interdisciplinary expertise that will further advance IHRR’s mission to understand and reduce risk, build resilience, and support evidence-informed decision-making.

Dr Caroline Clason, Associate Professor of Physical Durham Geography at Durham University, and Co-Director of the IHRR, specialises in glacier and ice sheet hydrology, water security in glacier-fed catchments, accumulation and release of contaminants in glacial environments, and glacier-related hazards. Her research spans more than 15 years in glaciology and physical geography. With her focus on glacierised regions and climate-hazard impacts, she brings to the IHRR a strong interest in societal vulnerability, justice and adaptation in high-mountain and cold-region systems

Dr Hailiang Du, Associate Professor in the of Mathematical Sciences at Durham University, and Co-Director of the IHRR, specialises in machine learning, uncertainty quantification, data assimilation, nonlinear time-series analysis, predictive modelling for weather, climate, and energy systems. His work has explored the evaluation of probabilistic forecasts and the calibration of complex energy- and climate-modelling systems. Dr Du’s interdisciplinary research supports IHRR’s commitment to data-driven hazard and risk analysis and the development of quantitative decision-support tools under uncertainty.

Dr Greg Lusk, Assistant Professor in the Department of Philosophy at Durham University and Co-Director of the IHRR, is an environmental philosopher of science whose research examines how scientific information—particularly in climate science—is produced, interpreted and used in policy, public discourse and decision-making. His work offers critical perspectives on the relationships between science, values, policy and society, which aligns closely with IHRR’s goal of bridging rigorous scholarship and societal relevance in hazard, risk, and resilience research.

Professor Kostas Nikolopoulos is Professor of Business Information Systems & Analytics and Associate Dean (Internationalisation) at Durham University Business School (DUBS) and Co-Director of the IHRR. He holds the Chair in Business Information Systems & Analytics at DUBS. His research interests include forecasting, behavioural operations, analytics, foresight and information systems. With extensive experience in strategic research leadership and global collaboration, he will play a key role in enhancing IHRR’s international engagement, partnerships and impact.

These five appointments reflect IHRR’s commitment to fostering interdisciplinary research and leadership in understanding and mitigating the risks faced by societies worldwide.

🌍 The Institute of Hazard, Risk and Resilience (IHRR) is delighted to welcome world-leading landslide expert Dr Fausto Guzzetti as our new Professor of Hazard and Risk.

His appointment is supported by the IHRR Donor Fund for Strategic Research & Outreach Initiatives.

Dr Guzzetti joins Durham after an exceptional 40-year career with the Italian National Research Council and the Italian Department of Civil Protection, where he led national work on natural hazard prediction and prevention.

A globally recognised scientist, he has advanced understanding of landslide hazards, early warning systems, climate impacts, and risk assessment. His 150+ research papers have received more than 43,000 citations, and his leadership has been honoured with major international awards and academy elections.

At IHRR, he will lead a five-year programme on hazard modelling, AI, uncertainty, ethics, and practical training for researchers and practitioners worldwide.

Welcome to Durham, Professor Guzzetti! 🙌📚🌱

🌍 IHRR Seminar Series 2025/26 – Continuing with Dr Lauren Martin 🌍

The Institute of Hazard, Risk and Resilience (IHRR) is delighted to continue our 2025/26 seminar series with Dr Lauren Martin, Associate Professor in Geography at Durham University.

📅 Monday 17 November 2025
🕐 1:15 – 2:30 pm (UK time)
📍 TLC 117, Durham University
💻 In person and online – open to everyone!


Talk title: Algorithmic Exclusions: Humanitarian Ethics, Automation, and the Calculation of Vulnerability in Refugee Governance in Lebanon

Abstract: Humanitarian cash assistance has grown to comprise over 20% of the formal humanitarian sector since the 2016 Grand Bargain on Humanitarian Finance. Replacing the complex logistics and friction of in-kind aid, cash assistance relies on financial technologies, the datafication of humanitarian operations and the digitalisation of aid distribution. It also relies on vulnerability assessments and targeting strategies, or calculative practices aimed at winnowing eligibility to meet funding limitations. This paper focusses on the use of algorithmic proxy means testing (PMT), an econometric approach imported from poverty reduction. To understand how algorithmic PMT was introduced, how it changed humanitarian aid to displaced Syrians in Lebanon and the political implications of automated decision-making, our team interviewed humanitarian practitioners with direct experience of the program. They raised a series of ethical concerns, demonstrating how algorithmic PMT strategically obscured both recipient and humanitarian understanding of the program. This obscurity arose from its novel calculations of relative vulnerability across the Syrian population, creating, we argue, unique ethical registers perceived to be in conflict with humanitarian ethics. We argue that a specific form of algorithmic humanitarianism emerged and posed significant questions about the politics of aid and the human in humanitarianism.

✨ Join us for an engaging discussion on automation, ethics, and humanitarian governance.

🚨 Don’t forget! It’s not too late to register for Professor Bruce D. Malamud’s seminar today!

🌋 IHRR Seminar Series 2025/26 – Hazard Interrelationships and Dynamic Risk Scenarios 🌋

📅 Monday 20 October 2025
🕐 1:15 – 2:30 pm (UK time)
📍 TLC 117, Durham University
💻 Join in person or online – all welcome!
c91a6fc6-98f4-4e7c-81ce-3673aead5593@7250d88b-4b68-4529-be44-d59a2d8a6f94" rel="ugc" target="_blank">https://events.teams.microsoft.com/event/c91a6fc6-98f4-4e7c-81ce-3673aead5593@7250d88b-4b68-4529-be44-d59a2d8a6f94

Don’t miss this insightful talk from IHRR Director and Wilson Chair of Hazard and Risk, Professor Bruce Malamud, exploring how natural hazards interact and evolve through dynamic risk scenarios.