UNU-WIDER

𝗢𝗽𝗲𝗻 𝗼𝗽𝗽𝗼𝗿𝘁𝘂𝗻𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗲𝘀 𝗮𝘁 𝗨𝗡𝗨-𝗪𝗜𝗗𝗘𝗥

We currently have 𝘁𝘄𝗼 𝗲𝘅𝗰𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗼𝗽𝗽𝗼𝗿𝘁𝘂𝗻𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗲𝘀 for researchers and policy professionals:

• 𝗥𝗲𝘀𝗲𝗮𝗿𝗰𝗵 𝗔𝘀𝘀𝗶𝘀𝘁𝗮𝗻𝘁, 𝗣𝗿𝗲𝘁𝗼𝗿𝗶𝗮, 𝗦𝗼𝘂𝘁𝗵 𝗔𝗳𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗮 – Work with South Africa’s world-class administrative tax microdata at the National Treasury Secure Data Facility. Ideal for candidates with strong quantitative and STATA skills.

• 𝗨𝗡𝗨-𝗪𝗜𝗗𝗘𝗥 & 𝗔𝗳𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗮𝗻 𝗨𝗻𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗪𝗶𝗻𝘁𝗲𝗿 𝗦𝗰𝗵𝗼𝗼𝗹 𝗼𝗻 𝗣𝘂𝗯𝗹𝗶𝗰 𝗙𝗶𝗻𝗮𝗻𝗰𝗲 – A unique training programme combining an online methods workshop and an in-person course in Addis Ababa (July–September 2026), designed to strengthen applied public economics and policy-relevant research skills.

Join us to contribute to cutting-edge research and capacity building in development and public finance.

👉 Learn more and apply: https://go.unu.edu/0pG8J

𝗜𝘀 𝗮𝗰𝗰𝗲𝘀𝘀 𝘁𝗼 𝗲𝗱𝘂𝗰𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗲𝗻𝗼𝘂𝗴𝗵 𝘁𝗼 𝗰𝗹𝗼𝘀𝗲 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗶𝗻𝗲𝗾𝘂𝗮𝗹𝗶𝘁𝘆 𝗴𝗮𝗽?

In a new WIDERAngle and GlobalDev blog, researchers Nicola Branson and Emma Whitelaw share findings from their study on education in Ghana. They found that even though more people are going to school, children from less-educated families still end up with less education than children from more-educated families.

More access to school has not resulted in more equal outcomes. Children of less-educated parents still fall behind their peers. This shows that obstacles to upward social mobility for disadvantaged children go beyond access to education.

More schooling ≠ more mobility.

📊 𝗞𝗲𝘆 𝗳𝗶𝗻𝗱𝗶𝗻𝗴𝘀
• Universal access saw more children attending and finishing school
• But upward social mobility only improved marginally
• Northern Ghana has made notable progress, showing change is possible

This raises an important question: if access alone is not enough, what else needs to change?

Read the full blog: https://go.unu.edu/aajjn
Also available in Spanish and French on globaldev.org

Fragility is often treated as a label – but what if we measured it as a risk?

A UNU-WIDER working paper by Joan Margalef develops a forward-looking measure of state fragility: the probability that a state will fail to perform core functions in the following year.

The paper defines state failure through observable breakdowns in conflict, territorial control, institutional performance, and public service provision.

The findings show that failure is highly persistent, breakdowns often accumulate, and conflict is the most common mode of failure. Political and institutional factors are the strongest predictors, while aggregate macroeconomic indicators matter much less.

The paper contributes to the forthcoming UNU-WIDER – World Bank Group report on poverty and fragility.

The measure does not identify causal policy levers. But it can help anticipate where risks are rising—and support crisis preparedness, early warning, and more targeted policy analysis.

Read the working paper: https://go.unu.edu/Xws8k

UNU-WIDER

In November 2025, South Africa adopted a 3% inflation target, replacing the 3–6% range that had been in place for more than two decades. By February 2026, headline inflation had reached exactly that figure.

A Middle East oil shock has since pushed it above target, and the Monetary Policy Committee meets this week against that backdrop.

In this blog, Richard Kima and Keagile Lesame draw on two decades of South African data to ask what this kind of commitment actually delivers, how it delivers it, and where its limits are.

Read here: https://go.unu.edu/zfl73

Do tax amnesty programmes improve compliance — or just create a temporary boost?
A new UNU‑WIDER working paper takes a closer look at Zambia’s 2017 tax amnesty programme using administrative tax data.

🔍 The findings:
✅ About 17–18% more reported sales
✅ About 16.5% more firms made a tax payment
❌ No increase in taxes paid

In short, the amnesty brought more businesses into the tax system—but did not lead to higher revenue.
The results suggest that tax amnesties can act as a short-term nudge for participation, rather than a sustainable tool for raising tax revenues.

What does this mean for policy? Developing countries may be better serve by avoiding amnesties altogether and strengthen enforcement mechanisms instead.

Read more: https://go.unu.edu/BbJto

Forgiveness or loophole?

South Africa's estimated corporate tax revenue losses to tax havens rose from USD 1.1 billion in 2015 to USD 1.82 billion in 2021.

New research asks: can tax authorities detect potential profit shifting using data they already have? Drawing on South African corporate income tax returns and customs records, the study develops a red-flag methodology that identifies multinational enterprises exhibiting persistent low profitability alongside high levels of haven-linked trade, intra-group debt, or royalty and management fee payments.

The findings show that fewer than 1% of multinationals in the sample are flagged, yet just 44 companies account for an estimated 63.5% of ZAR 5.29 billion in potential lost tax revenue. Wholesale and retail trade, services, and manufacturing together represent more than two thirds of all flagged firms.

The framework is designed to be replicable, offering a practical audit-targeting tool for revenue authorities operating under resource constraints.

Read the paper for the full findings: https://go.unu.edu/RVI4l

New SOUTHMOD release!

Great news for researchers and policymakers working on tax–benefit systems in low- and middle-income countries: UNU-WIDER has released an updated 𝗦𝗢𝗨𝗧𝗛𝗠𝗢𝗗 𝗺𝗼𝗱𝗲𝗹 𝗯𝘂𝗻𝗱𝗹𝗲, expanding the toolkit.

The update includes:
• Policy-year coverage to 2025
• Egypt added to the bundle
• Stronger analytical tools for cross-country and single-country analysis
• Continued methodological innovation
• Updated video guides

SOUTHMOD remains 𝗳𝗿𝗲𝗲𝗹𝘆 𝗮𝘃𝗮𝗶𝗹𝗮𝗯𝗹𝗲 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝗻𝗼𝗻-𝗰𝗼𝗺𝗺𝗲𝗿𝗰𝗶𝗮𝗹 𝗿𝗲𝘀𝗲𝗮𝗿𝗰𝗵, supporting work on poverty, inequality, revenue, and social protection.

Read more: https://go.unu.edu/ZRZzK

UNU-WIDER

Climate shocks. Conflict. Economic instability. These challenges respect no borders, and yet the international cooperation needed to address them is weakening.

💡 So, what does this paradox mean for development research today?

In her first blog post as Director of UNU-WIDER Dr Patricia Justino emphasizes that in times of global fragmentation, independent and policy-relevant research becomes more valuable, not less. Policymakers need anchors grounded in trusted evidence, free from any single government agenda.

The wrong response to this moment would be to retreat. Cutting ambition and accepting that research has less influence would be a mistake. This is precisely the time to strengthen partnerships and invest in institutions that help countries generate and use their own evidence.

Read the blog "Why a fracturing world makes our work more important — not less": https://go.unu.edu/W0Nei

We met with UNESCO colleagues from the Division for Policy and Lifelong Learning Systems yesterday on the heels of the recently signed Memorandum of Understanding between United Nations University and UNESCO.

The MOU emphasizes the role of science-policy-society interfaces, science diplomacy and intercultural dialogue in supporting multilateralism.

This has kickstarted an exciting new collaboration between UNU-WIDER and UNESCO on quantifying the impacts of education in an age of disruption, helping make the case for investments in education and learning that boost employment and economic growth.

This will build on UNU-WIDER's important work in Mozambique with education systems and their effects on labour market outcomes.

We look forward to the collaboration!

At the LDC Future Forum 2026 in Helsinki, UNU-WIDER Director Patricia Justino closed three days of dialogue on youth and sustainable development in least developed countries (LDCs), calling for evidence-based policy, real economic opportunity, and stronger trust in institutions. In particular, Dr. Justino’s remarks highlighted the importance of:

📊 The Midterm Review of the Doha Programme of Action (DPOA) must be a moment of evidence, not just reporting.
🎓 Investment in education and TVET must connect young people to real labour market opportunities, not just deliver programmes. Human capital investments need to be accompanied by economic transformation and real opportunities.
🤝 Trust is foundational, research shows younger generations are consistently less trusting of governments and institutions, making it harder to implement the very reforms LDCs need most.

Building that trust, from local institutions to the multilateral system, is one of the defining challenges of our time.