12/03/2026
The Middle swing voters who decide Europe's climate policy
https://czp.cuni.cz/en/news/our-article-in-nature-climate-change-the-middle-swing-voters-who-decide-europes-climate-policy
Our researchers, Milan Ščasný and Iva Zvěřinová from Univerzita Karlova, co-authored a new article published in Nature Climate Change. The findings suggest that die-hard supporters or opponents don't determine climate policy support in Europe; rather, it hinges on a large "conditional middle" (33%).
What drives this group is not political orientation or general climate concern. Instead, their preferences are influenced by their expectations about the costs and benefits of a policy: who bears the costs, who benefits, and how much it intrudes on their lives. (In our evaluations, political views and socio-demographic factors account for only a minor portion of the differences in their support — approximately 5%.)
Why does this matter? Because small swings in the middle can change what is politically feasible. In a simple simulation, shifting just the undecided segment of the conditional middle from neutral to supportive raises the number of climate policies with majority approval in Europe from 4 out of 15 to 10 out of 15.
The researchers also asked where climate policy revenues should go (e.g., Social Climate Fund–type revenues). The conditional middle prioritises visible benefits, especially climate change adaptation investments and support for vulnerable households. In comparison, support for compensating workers negatively affected by decarbonisation appears to be lower.
