Institute of Trading and Finance

It’s Warsh’s first FOMC meeting as chairman !

The Fed is expected to hold rates at 3.50%-3.75% today, but the real story is Kevin Warsh’s first meeting as Chair.

What markets are watching:

🔹 Will the Fed remove its easing bias?
🔹 Will the dot plot shift from cuts to no changes in 2026?
🔹 Does Warsh validate hopes for future cuts?
🔹 Or does he reinforce a higher-for-longer rate regime?

Our base case:

✅ No rate change
✅ Easing bias removed
✅ Higher inflation forecasts
✅ More hawkish dot plot
✅ Warsh emphasizes patience, not immediate easing

Potential market reaction:

📈 USD
📈 Treasury yields
📉 Long-duration growth stocks
📉 Crypto volatility
📉 Rate-sensitive sectors

The rate decision itself is not the trade.

The trade is Kevin Warsh.

Today may set the tone for rates, bonds, stocks and crypto for the rest of 2026.

NASDAQ Bonds USD Bitcoin Crypto IOTAF

🚨 EVERYONE THINKS WARSH IS HAWKISH.

We don’t.

The consensus view is simple:

➡️ Kevin Warsh takes over the Fed.
➡️ Inflation remains above target.
➡️ Rate cuts get pushed further out.
➡️ Higher for longer.

That’s not our view.

At IOTAF, we believe the market is misreading Warsh.

While his rhetoric sounds hawkish and he has been highly critical of the Fed’s inflation mistakes, we believe he is more focused on fixing the structure of monetary policy and reducing the Fed’s balance sheet than keeping rates elevated indefinitely.

In fact, our contrarian view is that:

🟢 Warsh cuts rates in 2026.

Yes, cuts.

A view that is currently well outside consensus.

Why?

• The labour market is gradually weakening.
• Growth is slowing beneath the surface.
• The Fed’s balance sheet can do more of the tightening heavy lifting.
• Political pressure will be immense if the economy softens.
• We believe Warsh ultimately wants lower rates and a smaller balance sheet, not necessarily tighter overall financial conditions.

The market currently sees a hawkish Fed Chair.

We see a future Fed Chair who may surprise investors by cutting sooner than expected.

Time will tell.

👇 What do you think?

🦅 Warsh = Higher for Longer
🕊️ Warsh = Rate Cuts in 2026

Comment below.

⚠️ IOTAF Opinion Only. This is not investment advice. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.


:::

BREAKING: Kevin Warsh officially becomes Chairman of the Federal Reserve today.

Markets are preparing for:
• A more hawkish Fed
• Stronger focus on inflation credibility
• Less forward guidance
• Higher-for-longer rates if inflation persists
• Major changes to Fed communication strategy

Warsh has long warned about:

* Excess liquidity
* Asset bubbles
* Sticky inflation
* The dangers of keeping rates too low for too long

His message is clear:
Price stability comes first.

A new era for the Fed begins today.

macro economy trading

WEEK AHEAD: THE MOST IMPORTANT WEEK OF THE QUARTER

Markets at highs… now comes the test.

What’s driving everything:
• 5/7 Mag 7 earnings (Wed–Thu)
• Fed + global central banks
• Oil shock → inflation risk

⸻

MONDAY
Setup + geopolitics
→ Iran headlines = market driver

TUESDAY
Consumer + rates
→ Visa, Coca-Cola, BP

WEDNESDAY (KEY DAY)
Fed decision + BIG TECH
→ Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, Alphabet
→ This decides the market direction

THURSDAY
Macro + Apple
→ GDP, ECB, BOE
→ Apple = consumer + China signal

FRIDAY
Low liquidity
→ Exxon, Chevron confirm oil trend

⸻

WHAT MATTERS
• AI earnings must deliver (not just hype)
• Oil ↑ = inflation ↑ = rates ↑
• Narrow rally = downside risk if tech misses

⸻

IOTAF TAKE
This is a binary week
→ Tech beats = melt-up
→ Tech disappoints + yields rise = fast correction

Expect volatility + big moves

⸻

Fed AI Investing Finance WallStreet

SWIPE 👉🏼to get ready for tomorrow’s NFP

Do you think we bottomed at 60k?