Institute of Bangladesh and International Studies

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গ্লাসগো জলবায়ু সম্মেলনে আমার চার প্রত্যাশা: ড. একেএম সাইফুল ইসলাম

বুয়েটের অধ্যাপক ড. একেএম সাইফুল ইসলাম বলেন, আমরা এই সম্মেলন থেকে অনেক কিছুই প্রত্যাশা করি। তবে মোটা দাগে চারটি দিক অবশ্যই জরুরিভিত্তিতে নিষ্পত্তি হওয়ার দরকার। এগুলোর মধ্যে উষ্ণতা দেড় ডিগ্রির মধ্যে সীমিতকরণে অবশ্যই একমত হতে হবে। গ্রিন তহবিলে দূষণকারী দেশগুলোর ১০০ বিলিয়ন ডলার প্রদানের বিষয়টি নিশ্চিত করা জরুরি। বাংলাদেশসহ ঝুঁকিপূর্ণ দেশগুলোকে অভিযোজনের জন্য আর্থিক ও কারিগরি সহায়তার বিকল্প নেই। বিশেষ করে জলবায়ু-পরিবর্তনের কারণে অতি ঝুঁকিপূর্ণ দেশগুলোর সক্ষমতা বৃদ্ধির ব্যবস্থা করতেই হবে। অধ্যাপক ইসলাম জাতিসংঘের আইপিসিসির ষষ্ঠ মূল্যায়ন প্রতিবেদনের এক নম্বর ওয়ার্কিং গ্রুপের প্রধান লেখক। আইপিসিসি হচ্ছে, ‘ইন্টারগভর্নমেন্টাল প্যানেল অন ক্লাইমেট চেঞ্জ’।

সাইফুল ইসলাম বলেন, প্যারিস জলবায়ু সম্মেলনে ১৯৭টি দেশ এ মর্মে চুক্তিবদ্ধ হয়েছিল যে তারা, ২১০০ সাল নাগাদ উষ্ণতা বৃদ্ধি ২ ডিগ্রির মধ্যে সীমিত করবে। ইতোমধ্যে ১ দশমিক ১ ডিগ্রি বেড়েছে। এতেই বিশ্বের নাকাল পরিস্থিতি। সমুদ্র পানির স্তর বৃদ্ধির ফলে বিভিন্ন দেশে লবণাক্ততা ভয়াবহ আকারে বেড়ে গেছে। কোরালের ক্ষতি বেড়েই চলেছে। বেড়েছে ঝড়-তুফান, অনাবৃষ্টি-অতিবৃষ্টিসহ আবহাওয়ার চরম অবস্থা। ফলে বাড়ছে মরুকরণ। এই অবস্থায় উষ্ণতা যত বাড়বে বিশ্বের অস্থির পরিস্থিতি তথা প্রাকৃতিক দুর্যোগ আরও বাড়বে। বাংলাদেশসহ ৪৬ ক্ষুদ্র ও দ্বীপরাষ্ট্র এবং দরিদ্র দেশগুলোর দাবি- উষ্ণতা দেড় ডিগ্রির মধ্যে রাখতে হবে। আমি মনে করি, বাংলাদেশের এটি এক নম্বর দাবি হওয়া উচিত এবং আমার প্রত্যাশা এই দাবি যেন পূরণ হয়।

ক্ষতিগ্রস্ত দেশগুলোর জন্য অতিদূষণকারী জাতির কাছ থেকে অর্থ আদায় করে ১০০ বিলিয়ন ডলারের তহবিল গঠন করার কথা। ২০২০ সালের মধ্যে এটি গঠিত হওয়ার লক্ষ্য ছিল। কিন্তু এতে এখন পর্যন্ত মাত্র ১০ বিলিয়ন ডলারের অঙ্গীকার দেখা যাচ্ছে। আর ব্যয় হয়েছে ৬ বিলিয়ন ডলারের মতো। অন্যদিকে, এই অর্থের বেশির ভাগ নিচ্ছে ‘মিটিগেশন’ (দূষণহ্রাস) খাতের দেশগুলো। অর্থাৎ চীন, ভারত, ব্রাজিলের মতো দেশগুলো- যারা অধিক পরিমাণে পরিবেশের ক্ষতি করছে। কিন্তু আমরা যারা দূষণের কারণে জলবায়ু পরিবর্তনের করালগ্রাসে পড়ে আছি ও দূষণ কম করি, তাদেরকে তেমন একটা সহায়তা দেওয়া হচ্ছে না। অথচ অস্তিত্ব টিকিয়ে রাখতে অভিযোজনের জন্য তাদেরই বেশি অর্থ সহায়তা প্রয়োজন। এই তহবিলের অর্থ ৫০ শতাংশ করে সমান হারে ‘দূষণহ্রাস বা প্রশমন’ এবং ‘অভিযোজন’ খাতে বণ্টন করা দরকার।

বাংলাদেশসহ ঝুঁকিপূর্ণ দেশগুলোকে বাঁচাতে হলে আর্থিক ও কারিগরি সহায়তা দিতেই হবে। তাই উল্লিখিত তহবিল থেকে অর্থ দেওয়ার পাশাপাশি যেসব গ্রিন-টেকনোলজি আবিষ্কার করা হয়েছে সেগুলো ‘পেটেন্ট’ বিনামূল্যে প্রদান করতে হবে। যাতে আমরা উৎপাদন করে বেঁচে থাকতে পারি। জলবায়ু পরিবর্তনের কারণে প্রাকৃতিক দুর্যোগ থেকে ভয়ানক ক্ষতির মধ্যে আছি আমরা। আমাদের জিডিপির অনেক অংশই নষ্ট হচ্ছে। অভ্যন্তরীণভাবে আমরা অনেক চ্যালেঞ্জ মোকাবিলা করছি। এই একই অবস্থা সব দরিদ্র দেশের। তাই ক্ষতিপূরণ হিসাবে দূষণকারী দেশগুলোকে অর্থায়ন করতে হবে। পাশাপাশি বিপদাপন্ন অবস্থা থেকে উত্তরণ এবং টিকে থাকতে সক্ষমতা বৃদ্ধির জন্য প্রশিক্ষণ, যন্ত্রপাতি হস্তান্তর, অর্থায়ন ইত্যাদির ব্যবস্থা উন্নত জাতিগুলোকেই করতে হবে। ক্ষতিগ্রস্ত দেশগুলো এসব দিক আদায়ে সোচ্চার হোক এবং আদায়ে সমর্থ হোক-আমার এই প্রত্যাশা রইল।

যত্রতত্র অনার্স খুলে শিক্ষিত বেকার তৈরি করে ফেলেছি বলে মন্তব্য করেছেন শিক্ষামন্ত্রী ডা. দীপু মনি। তিনি বলেন, আমরা শিক্ষিত বেকার তৈরি করতে চাই না। উল্লেখ্য, ২০০১ খ্রিষ্টাব্দে বিএনপি-জামাত জোট সরকার ক্ষমতায় এসেই জাতীয় বিশ্ববিদ্যালয়ের অধীনে যত্রতত্র অনার্স-মাস্টার্স কলেজ ও বিষয় খোলার অনুমতি দেয়া শুরু করে। অদ্যাবধি সেই ধারা অব্যাহত রয়েছে। তবে, জাতীয় বিশ্ববিদ্যালয়ের বর্তমান প্রশাসন গত কয়েক বছরে যত্রতত্র অনার্সই খোলার অনুমতি দেয়নি

Sound in Research methodology
Good in English write up
Sound in Data analysis
B.A. and M.A. in international Relations
At least 2 years experience in research field.

The Sundarbans lie across the outer deltas of the Ganges, Brahmaputra and Meghna rivers. At 10,000 sq.km, it forms the largest estuarine mangrove forest in the world, 40% in India, 60% in Bangladesh. The adjacent World Heritage sites in India and Bangladesh cover just over a quarter of the area. The forest is composed of small forested islands and mudflats intersected by an intricate network of tidal waterways. It exemplifies the ecological processes of monsoon rain flooding, delta formation, tidal influence and plant colonisation.The area has a wide range of rare fauna, including the Bengal tiger, estuarine crocodile and many reptiles and birds. The devastation caused by Cyclone Sidr, especially to the forest in Bangladesh, emphasised how important mangrove forests, flood refuges and an early warning system are to protection of the coastal population

Geographical Location
The Sundarbans mangrove forest lies among the creeks and distributaries of the Ganges and Meghna (Bramaputra) river.

Areas
139,500 ha. The total area of both World Heritage sites is 272,510 ha

Physical Features
The Sundarbans are part of the world's largest delta, formed from the sediments brought down by three great rivers, the Ganges, Brahmaputra and Meghna, which converge on the Bengal Basin. The forest extends over some 200 islands, separated by 15 major distributary rivers flowing north-south, and 400 interconnected tidal estuaries, creeks and canals. It forms an impenetrable saltwater swamp reaching 100-130km inland, which supports the largest tidal mangrove forest in the world, covering 10,200 sq. km. Of this 595,500ha (59.3%) are in Bangladesh and 426,200ha (42.5%) in India, 232,000ha of which is land. The landscape is one of low-lying forested alluvial islands, 56 on the Indian side, mudbanks with sandy beaches, and dunes along the coast. The area is approximately three-fifths of the 16,700 sq.km that existed 200 years ago having been cleared and converted to agriculture, especially in India (Hussain & Archarya, 1994). The forest swamp, extensively embanked and empoldered, is an essential buffer for inland areas against the ravages of frequent cyclones from the Bay of Bengal. The nutrient-rich waters also provide the most important nursery for shrimps and spawning grounds for crustaceans and fish along the whole coast of eastern India.

The landscape is dynamic, constantly moulded and altered by tidal action, with erosion along estuaries and deposition along the banks of inner creeks augmented by the discharge of silt from seawater (Sanyal & Bal, 1986). The wider rivers of this intricate network of waterways are over two kilometres wide, run north-south and tend to be long and straight. They are maintained largely by the two diurnal flow tides and ebb tides over a tidal range of 3-5m up to 8m, together with the erosion-resistance of the clay and silt of their banks (Ghosh & Mandal, 1989). Innumerable small channels drain the land at each ebb but major coastal deposition occurs primarily in Bangladesh. There is a deep submarine canyon-head depression on the eastern Bengal shelf which forms a sediment trap where sedimentation increases. The way that waves diverge over the delta undersea, especially during monsoon gales, largely depends on the changing deep wave fields accompanying them which are affected by this trough. Flood currents deflect waves more to the east, ebb currents deflect them more to the west, and are important in the redistribution of river-borne sediments along the coast (Ghosh & Mandal, 1989; Michels et al., 1998). On the coast, easily eroded sands collect at the river mouths forming banks which are blown into dunes above high-water level by strong south-west monsoon winds. Finer silts are washed out into the Bay of Bengal and where they are protected from wave action, form mud flats in the lee of the dunes. These become overlain with sand from the dunes, and develop into grassy flats. This island-building process continues for as long as the area on the windward side is exposed to wave action. With the formation of the next island further out, silt begins to accumulate along the shore of the island and sand is blown or washed away (Seidensticker & Hai, 1983). This process is most evident in the Bangladesh section of the coast.

The Sundarbans in Bangladesh are dissected by seven main north-south-flowing rivers, from the Rainagal, a branch of the Hariabhanga to the Baleswar, a mouth of the Meghna. These waterways, apart from the Baleswar River on the eastern edge of the East Sanctuary, now carry little fresh water as they are mostly cut off from the Ganges, the freshwater outflow of which over 400 years has shifted progressively eastwards from the Bhagirathi-Hooghly channels (Seidensticker & Hai, 1983). This shift is due to tectonic subsidence of the Bengal Basin during the 10th-12th centuries, and the continuing gradual eastward tilting of the underlying crust. Where the forest in India remains relatively stable and essentially land-locked, with rivers almost completely cut off from the main freshwater sources and therefore salt, the southeastern corner in Bangladesh is subsiding and is an area of active sedimentary deposition (Sanyal & Bal, 1986). The average salinity of water and soils therefore decreases markedly from west to east (Islam, 1973). The area has three main hydrological zones: brackish, moderately saline and saline, which influence the types of vegetation which dominate each. As with the rest of the Bengal Plain, the alluvial deposits are geologically very recent but deep, sediments of just the last few million years being as much as 1,000m thick (Seidensticker & Hai, 1983). The subsoil consists of alternate layers of sand and silty clay loam down to a depth of 1.1-1.4m and thereafter stiff black clay, gradually changing into shales and sandstone. The soils are saline, chiefly an alkaline clay with an excess of salt except on the seaward side of islands at the coastal limits, where sandy beaches occur (Lahiri, 1973). The pH ranges from 5.6 to 8.0 (Christensen, 1984). By comparison with the drier western Sundarbans the surface soil in the east is fertile silt loam, very suitable for tree growth (Choudhury, 1968).

Climate
The climate is humid sub-tropical, tempered by the sea. Temperatures rise from daily minima of 2-4°C in winter to over 32°C during the monsoon and a maximum around 43°C in March. The mean annual maxima and minima recorded at the Jhingakhali meteorological station were 34°C and 20°C respectively. Rainfall is heavy and the humidity averages 70-80% due to the nearness of the Bay of Bengal. The mean annual rainfall varies from about 1,800mm at Khulna, and 1,920mm at Jhingakali north of the Sundarbans, to 2002mm recorded at the observatory on the western coastal island of Sagar and 2,790mm on the Bangladesh coast. 80% of the rain falls during the monsoon between mid-June and October, purging saline soils of their salt. From then to mid March the weather is dry until mid-March, a period when evapotranspiration exceeds precipitation. During the monsoon over half the Sundarbans is submerged under water. Conditions are most saline in February to April, when the depletion of soil moisture occurs at the same time as freshwater flows from upstream are reduced. From 1983 to 2003 the annual sea level rise was 3.14cm compared with the world average of 2cm and the outer islands began to erode away. A 25cm rise in sea level would destroy 40% of the Sundarbans, and a 45cm rise by the end of the 21st century would destroy 75% (Colette, 2007). Rising sea levels also increase saltwater intrusion into aquifers.

The prevailing wind is from the north and northeast from October to mid-March, although January and February are calm. However, violent southwesterlies prevail from mid-March to September. Storms, funnelled up the shallow upper Bay of Bengal, are common in May and from October to November, sometimes developing into cyclones which can be accompanied by storm surges up to 7.5m high, causing enormous loss of life, damage to property and forests, as in 1970 and 1991. The effects on India of the 2004 tsunami, and of the mid-year monsoon floods and cyclone Sidr were less drastic than in Bangladesh. There the effects of the 2004 tsunami were very bad and those of the July and September monsoon floods and cyclone Sidr in November 2007, disastrous on a huge scale. The strongest effects were felt between the Passur and Baleswar rivers in the East Sanctuary. Cyclonic winds reached 220 kph with a 6.5m storm surge which took over 5,000 lives, affected up to twelve million people in the area, and damaged or destroyed some one million homes, livestock, rice fields, forests and the fishing industry (Bangladesh Forest Department, 2008; Indian Water Portal Blog, 2007). Such storms vividly emphasise the protective function of the coastal forest but also the vulnerability of the Sundarbans to the effects of climate change.

Vegetation
Mangrove swamp forest extends over half of the Sundarbans, the rest being largely brackish and salt water. The name comes from the dominant sundari tree Heritiera fomes, so called because of its elegance, and from ban, forest (Jain & Sastry, 1983). The vegetation consists of Malayan Peninsular and Polynesian elements, with some Indo-Chinese and Ethiopian elements, even a few from the New World. It is found nowhere else except in small parts of the Mahanadi and Godaveri deltas to the southwest and in the Bay Islands (Mukherjee, 1975). The mangrove flora of the Sundarbans, which contains 27 species, is unique in comparison with non-deltaic coastal mangrove forests. Unlike these, the Rhizophoraceae and Avicenneaceae are of only minor importance: most of the genera are from the Sterculiaceae and Euphorbiaceae (Hussain & Acharya, 1994). The dominant species are sundari Heritiera fomes, gewa Exoecaria agallocha, goran Ceriops decandra and keora Sonneratia apetala. The sundari dominate where the soil water is relatively fresh, especially in the northeast, and on higher ground, and forms 60% of the commercially useful timber. The reason for the difference is the strong influence of freshwater. Excoecaria agallocha dominates the zone of moderately saline soils; and Ceriops decandra, the saline soils. Other mangrove species include garjan or red mangrove Rhizophora mangle, R. mucronata and R. apiculata, kankra Bruguiera gymnorhiza, and baen or Indian mangrove Avicennia officinalis.

The Sundarbans are classified as moist tropical seral forest, comprised of a mosaic succession of four types of tidal forest communities: low mangrove forest, tree mangrove forest, salt-water Heritiera forest and freshwater Heritiera swamp forest, now much cleared for settlement. The pioneer vegetation on newly accreted sites is Sonneratia apetala, followed by Avicennia officinalis. The golpata or nypa palm Nypa fruticans grows on levee banks, especially if they are well established. As the ground rises with soil deposition, Exoecaria agallocha comes to dominate, and when the land is only occasionally flooded, Heritiera. Beach forest occurs on coastal islands of low very xerophytic sand-dunes due to the lime from disintegrating shells and salt. The sand dunes are partially covered with spear-grass Imperata cylindrica, with behind them, creepers and shrubs or trees such as jhao Tamarix troupii, palita Erythrina variegata and kulsi Aegiceras corniculatus. Wild rice Oryza coarctata, Nypa and speargrass Imperata cylindrica are prevalent on mud flats (Khan, 1986) The large stands of Sonneratia, which colonises new mudbanks, provide important wildlife habitat (R.Salter, pers. comm., 1987). Though mangrove forests are not very diverse, there are many climbers, creepers, algal and fungal species on the forest floor. Prain (1903) described the flora of the mangrove forest of the Ganges-Brahmaputra delta, recording 245 genera and 334 species of plant as did Seidensticker & Hai in 1983 in the Bangladesh section, listing the principal woody and herbaceous species. Chaffey & Sandom (1985) also give a detailed list of trees and shrubs in the Bangladesh section and Islam (1973) gives an account of the mangrove algal flora.

All four types of tidal forest are found here. Sundarbans West is in the salt-water zone, which supports a dense understory of Ceriops, with sparse Exoecaria and intermittent patches of hantal palm Phoenix paludosa on drier ground, riverbanks and levees. Carapa obovata, Bruguiera and passur Xylocarpus mekongensis grow sporadically throughout the area. Sundarbans South where there is the greatest seasonal variation in salinity levels has relatively longer periods of moderate salinity where Exoecaria is the dominant tree, often mixed with Heritiera, frequently associated with a dense understory of Ceriops and some Xylocarpus. Sundarbans East where freshwater and sundari predominate, has some Exoecaria and Xylocarpus, with Bruguiera in areas of more frequent flooding. The Nypa fruticans palm growing along the creeks on wet mud-banks is widespread along drainage lines. There is an understory of shingra Cynometra ramiflora where soils are drier, amur Amoora cucullata in wetter areas and Ceriops in saline soils

Research shows mangrove conservation can pay for itself in flood protection The natural coastal defenses provided by mangrove forests reduce annual flooding significantly in critical hotspots around the world. Without mangroves, flood damages would increase by more than $65 billion annually, and 15 million more people would be flooded, according to a new study published Mar...

Many mangrove forests can be recognized by their dense tangle of prop roots that make the trees appear to be standing on stilts above the water. This tangle of roots allows the trees to handle the daily rise and fall of tides, which means that most mangroves get flooded at least twice per day. The roots also slow the movement of tidal waters, causing sediments to settle out of the water and build up the muddy bottom.

Mangrove forests stabilize the coastline, reducing erosion from storm surges, currents, waves, and tides. The intricate root system of mangroves also makes these forests attractive to fish and other organisms seeking food and shelter from predators..

Every hundred years, there seems to be a great pandemic, plague 1720, cholera epidemic 1820 and Spanish flu 1920.
The pandemics mentioned above seem to follow the same pattern as the current viral epidemic in China.

But history has really repeated itself, was this virus deliberately spread by an organization? Below, I will write a bit about the history of these pandemics:

The year 1720:
In 1720, there was the last large-scale
said to have started with people who drank water from lakes contaminated with this bacteria.bubonic plague pandemic, also called the great plague of Marseille . Records show that the bacteria killed around 100,000 people in Marseille.
It is assumed that the bacteria are spread by flies infected with this bacteria.

The year 1820:
The first records of a cholera pandemic took place in 1820, which took place in Asia, in the countries of Thailand, Indonesia and the Philippines. In 1820, more than 100,000 deaths were recorded in Asia due to this bacterium. T

The year 1920:
The Spanish flu occurred 100 years ago, at the time people were struggling with the H1N1 flu virus which had undergone a genetic mutation, which made it much more dangerous than the virus normal. This virus infected 500 million people and killed more than 100 million people in the world, this pandemic was the deadliest in history.

The year 2020:
It seems like history repeats itself every 100 years, is it just a coincidence?