01/09/2026
(Source: The Australian newspaper)
Anthony Albanese is close to finalising an immigration crackdown headlined by new restrictions on international students and their family members, a six-month limit on visitor visas, moves to stop students shifting courses and a clamp on onshore visa applications.
Amid pressure from One Nation for the Albanese government to slash record post-pandemic migration levels by reducing international students and removing overstayers, the Prime Minister and Home Affairs Minister Tony Burke are expected to unveil Labor’s immigration overhaul within weeks.
The government’s plan to achieve its net overseas migration forecasts is understood to include detailed quarterly cabinet updates explaining how new measures are driving down the NOM and assessments of impacts they may have on the economy or relationships with international partners.
The Australian can reveal the immigration package, paused by Mr Albanese last month following internal concerns about the severity of some proposed measures, will be folded into one major announcement next month coinciding with the commencement of new visa-enforcement measures.
Mr Burke on Wednesday declined to comment when contacted by The Australian about the government’s plans to reduce net overseas migration.
While senior ALP figures have sought to distance the immigration overhaul from One Nation’s rise, it is widely accepted in government ranks that a move was required to show voters that Labor could at least achieve its own NOM forecasts. Some Labor MPs are worried about the party’s left-wing base railing against measures deemed too tough.
After four months of devising stronger visa requirements and enforcement tools to help the Albanese government meet its NOM forecasts, Mr Burke is expected to apply new rules around student visas, including restricting onshore lodgments, limiting family members of international students applying for visas, cracking down on foreigners shifting university courses and blocking movement from higher education to the vocational, education and training sector.
The student visa crackdown is likely to be brought forward to September this year. Exceptions for student visas for family members are likely to apply for postgraduate research students, students sponsored by the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade and Department of Defence, those from Pacific and East Timor nations, foreign government scholarship recipients and students seeking new short-term visas due to deferrals outside their control, such as illness.
The Albanese government is also focused on amending migration regulations, including limiting onshore pathways and visa hopping by strengthening visa conditions.
Valid visa periods will be reduced from 12 months to six from November for tourists, family members and businesspeople on an eVisitor (subclass 651) visa and tourists – including those from countries such as Canada, the US and Japan – travelling in and out of Australia over a long period via the Electronic Travel Authority (subclass 601). Some exclusions will apply in relation to bilateral sensitivities and international obligations, and waivers of conditions may still apply in individual cases.
After Mr Burke postponed his unveiling of the government’s immigration crackdown in a National Press Club address last month following discussions with ministerial colleagues, Mr Albanese requested that all measures be released in one major announcement.
The government is looking at using existing quarterly migration data updates to ensure full cabinet visibility of measures enforced to cut the NOM, provide detailed briefings on various measures and assess impacts across the economy and with international partners.
Net overseas migration – the difference between the number of people who entered and left the country – peaked at 538,340 in 2022-23 once international borders opened after the Covid pandemic.
The pandemic was a shock to the system. The NOM bounced between 180,000 and 270,000 for 10 years prior but then went negative once international borders closed. Pent-up demand sent it shooting up in 2022-23 and it’s remained high since, with the Australian Bureau of Statistics estimating 305,570 in 2024-25.
Labor’s May budget forecast a gradual slide down to 225,000 by 2027-28. One Nation has pledged to slash the NOM to 130,000. Angus Taylor has set an upper limit of 173,000 under a Coalition government and has maintained the target would be set by additional housing supply.
A significant share of student visa applications are lodged from within Australia. In 2024-25, these made up 37 per cent of successful applicants. The lion’s share of these people were already on student visas. Of the 137,524 student visas granted to migrants who were already in Australia in 2024-25, 70 per cent – 96,044 – were already on student visas, latest figures from the Department of Home Affairs show. About 18 per cent were temporary residents under large visa types including the Pacific labour mobility scheme, graduate work, and post-study work. Working holiday makers and visitors made up 5 per cent apiece.
Mr Burke, who met Five Eyes counterparts in Sydney on Wednesday including US Homeland Security Secretary Markwayne Mullin, said that, in terms of broader migration reforms, he was “working through collegiately with my colleagues, when we’re in a position to announce it, I promise, it’ll be a very, very public announcement”.
Asked about any changes to British visas or backpacker arrangements, Mr Burke said the migration overhaul would “be made by the Australian cabinet”.
“As soon as I’m in a position to announce them I will,” he said.
With the government considering limiting the types of students who can bring partners and dependent children, figures show the average number of partners and dependants per higher education student had risen from one in 12 in 2005-06 to one in eight in 2024-25. This trend has been most pronounced for VET students – just under one family member per 10 international students in 2005-06, peaked at almost one in three in 2011-12, and was still high in 2024-25 at about one in four.
In its Statement on Monetary Policy released this month, the Reserve Bank said: “Relative to the May forecast, a stronger population growth assumption has led to slightly higher GDP growth over most of the forecast period, all other things equal.”
Estimated population growth in the December quarter will be 1.4 per cent, up from 1.2 per cent in the previous forecast. By June next year, the population will also grow at a higher rate than previously thought. Asked whether Treasury had modelled the impact of a reduction in net overseas migration, Jim Chalmers said his department provided him with “figures in the budget, which show net overseas migration is down 45 per cent since the peak, and we expect it to go further”.
“What those forecasts show is that Treasury expects net overseas migration to moderate further in addition to the very, very substantial moderation that we’ve already seen,” the Treasurer said.
The government is considering a further tightening of people seeking to renew their stay in Australia by applying for a student visa for lower-level courses, such as moving from a student visa for a university degree to a student visa for a vocational course.
The government has previously identified the vocational education and training sector as one where “dodgy” providers were exploiting the visa scheme to aid migration.
Labor’s crackdown, which began in 2023, has been effective. The number of student visa holders moving from higher education to student visas for the VET sector bounced around 5000 for about 10 years and then shot up to 14,207 in 2022-23. Following the government’s crackdown, visa-hopping fell to 2114 in 2024-25.
The Albanese government is facing calls to revoke its plan to slow approvals of working holiday-maker visas and pause applications entirely from 24 countries, amid warnings the policy will devastate the $190bn-a-year tourism sector.
(Source: The Australian newspaper)
