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📰 NEWS!

🚀 Nvidia topped Q1 estimates with 85% revenue growth and a $80B buyback authorisation, reinforcing the AI demand story for tech indices.

🕊️ Iran peace-deal hopes resurfaced, pausing the dollar's rally and pulling oil off this week's highs as risk-off unwinds.

📉 Asian stocks slipped as higher yields bit, with Nvidia's softer Q2 guidance leaving the after-hours reaction mixed.

🥇 Gold held steady around $4,540 as peace hopes offset inflation pressure, leaving today's PMIs the next swing factor.



📅 KEY EVENTS REMAINING THIS WEEK

🇪🇺 Thu: Eurozone Flash PMIs – 08:00 GMT (released)

🇺🇸 Thu: US Initial Jobless Claims – 12:30 GMT

🇺🇸 Thu: US Flash PMIs – 13:45 GMT

🇬🇧 Fri: UK Retail Sales – 06:00 GMT

💻 NVDA earnings are tonight — results drop after the US close (~21:00 BST).

🎯 Wall Street expects ~$78.8bn revenue & ~$1.77 EPS, above NVIDIA's own $78bn guide.

📉 Worth noting: the stock has fallen after 4 of its last 5 beats.

📊 Q2 guidance matters more than tonight's headline — consensus is ~$87bn.

🇨🇳 China is the wildcard. No China revenue is baked into Q1. Any H200 update could move the stock.

Read the full article: https://go.thinkmarkets.com/4ujFyMt

₿ BITCOIN!

🔻 Bitcoin's spring rally has lost momentum, slipping to $77K after a 6% pullback from the May peak near $82K knocked it out of the April uptrend channel.

⚠️ The macro has flipped against crypto: hot US CPI killed rate-cut bets, the dollar firmed, bond yields surged, and Iran-driven risk-off pulled positioning out of non-yielding assets.

📉 A daily close below $76K confirms the spring uptrend is over and opens the door to $65K, with the broader October bear trend back in play.

📈 A hold puts the 200-day moving average back in play as the next test, but with the macro more hostile than April, the bar for a sustained recovery is higher.

📰 NEWS!

🔥 Trump warned Iran "there won't be anything left of them" without a deal, lifting WTI near $106 and Brent near $109 as Hormuz risks reignite.

💱 EUR/USD slipped to around 1.1600 as the prolonged Iran conflict pressures risk assets, with Thursday's flash PMIs the next test.

💻 Nvidia tumbled over 4% on Friday and US futures sold off sharply in tandem, with Wednesday's Q1 results now the pivotal catalyst for tech indices.

🥇Gold slumped to multi-week lows as a firmer dollar and rising real yields beat the safe-haven bid despite the Iran flare-up.

📅 WEEK AHEAD – KEY EVENTS (w/c 18.05.2026)

🇺🇸 Wed: Nvidia Q1 earnings – After US close (~20:00 GMT)

🇺🇸 Wed: EIA Crude Oil Inventories – 14:30 GMT

🇪🇺 Thu: Eurozone Flash PMIs – 08:00 GMT

🇺🇸 Thu: US Flash PMIs – 13:45 GMT

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📰 NEWS!

🔥 April CPI jumped to 3.8%, the fastest since 2023, flipping the Fed narrative as rate-cut bets evaporate and hike odds emerge.

🐉 Trump heads to Beijing tonight for the high-stakes Xi summit, with Iran, trade, Taiwan, and rare earths on the table.

🛢️ Oil eased after three sessions of gains but stayed above $100, with Aramco flagging 100M barrels lost weekly as the Hormuz shutdown drags on.



📅 KEY EVENTS REMAINING

Wed: US PPI (Apr) – 12:30 GMT

Wed: US Crude Oil Inventories – 14:30 GMT

Thu: UK Q1 GDP – 06:00 GMT

Thu: US Retail Sales (Apr) – 12:30 GMT

📰 NEWS!

🔥 Trump rejected Iran's counterproposal as "totally unacceptable," extending the Strait of Hormuz closure and reigniting oil's risk premium.

🛢️ WTI pushed back above $100 a barrel and Brent topped $105 on the deadlock, with further moves tied to whether talks restart or escalation widens.

📉 US index futures slipped as the oil surge revived inflation worries and pushed Fed rate-cut bets back out.

🥇 Gold dipped despite the Iran escalation as a firmer dollar and higher-for-longer rate expectations offset the safe-haven bid.



📅 WEEK AHEAD – TOP 5 EVENTS (w/c 11.05.2026)

Tue: US CPI (Apr) – 15:30 EEST (GMT)
Wed: US PPI (Apr) – 15:30 EEST (GMT)
Wed: US Crude Oil Inventories – 17:30 EEST (GMT)
Thu: UK Q1 GDP – 09:00 EEST (GMT)
Thu: US Retail Sales (Apr) – 15:30 EEST (GMT)

📰 NEWS!

🔥US and Iranian forces traded fire in the Strait of Hormuz, but Trump and Tehran both downplayed the clash and said the ceasefire holds.

🛢️ Oil spiked on the headlines then gave back most of the move as escalation fears faded — the next swing depends on whether the truce sticks.

🇺🇸 All eyes on April NFP today. A soft print could revive Fed rate-cut bets and pressure the dollar; a strong one does the opposite.

🥇 Gold sits near record highs, with NFP and the Middle East setting up the next move either way.



📅 CALENDAR FOR TODAY – 08.05.2026
🇺🇸 US Non-Farm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate – 15:30 EEST (GMT+3)

📰 NEWS!

Trump says the Iran deal isn't done and warned of fresh strikes if Tehran refuses. Oil risk premium stays on the table.

🛢️ Crude slid on peace hopes, then steadied. Iran's response is the next big move.

⚡ Shell beat Q1 estimates with a bigger buyback and dividend hike.

🥇 Gold sits near record highs — any wobble in Iran talks and the bid is back.



📅 CALENDAR FOR TODAY – 07.05.2026

US Initial Jobless Claims – 15:30 GMT+3

Brent crude surged to a four-year high after escalating tensions in the Strait of Hormuz triggered fresh supply concerns.

With global inventories already tight and geopolitical risk rising, markets are reassessing inflation expectations and central bank policy paths.

Will this risk premium persist, or fade with de-escalation?

Read more: https://go.thinkmarkets.com/4wf9gnq