This research project is about how the increasing numbers of regional-urban commuters are effecting employment in regional areas. Regional-urban commuters are likely to be more highly paid than people who work in regional areas, leading to an expectation that there will be a relationship between growth in regional-urban commuters and employment in retail trade and in population service industries.
If the change in employment is confined to these sectors, then it may be argued that regional-urban commuters are facilitating the suburbanisation of regional areas. However, if regional-urban commuters have a propensity to change their place of work to regional areas, then they could be considered as providing more substantial changes to regional employment over time, strengthening and diversifying regional economies. The increasing number of regional-urban commuters, their employment in different industry sectors and occupations, and their higher average incomes provide the basis for the assumption that they are changing employment in regional areas. It is of note that the 2011 census found that 1/3 of the residents of Greater Geelong who earned more than $2,000 per week worked in metropolitan Melbourne. The research is significant as it provides insights into the implications of planning policies that call for growth in cities and towns surrounding capital cities, such as Plan Melbourne calling to “Rebalance Victoria’s population growth from Melbourne to rural and regional Victoria” and nominating towns suitable for population. There is also continuing investment and proposals for improvements to road and rail links, which can be expected to increase the number of commuters between regional cities and Melbourne. However, how increases in regional-urban commuting impacts on regional areas is not clearly understood, particularly in Australia. This study uses a statistical model of regional retail trade and regression analysis to test whether the increase in regional-urban commuters in a Local Government Area is positively related to growth in employment in retail trade and population services, based on Australian Bureau of Statistics data from the 2006 and 2011 censuses. The focus on regional-urban commuters and their links to regional prosperity may also provide lead to conclusions that metropolitan commutersheds are a border between regional affluence and vulnerability. A survey and interviews with regional-urban commuters will be also be undertaken, to provide insights into their medium to long-term employment intentions. Whether regional-urban commuters indicate an interest in starting new businesses in regional locations is particularly important in considerations of whether regional settlements within Melbourne’s communtershed are undergoing processes of suburbanization or are developing as alternate centers of economic activity. In summary, this project investigates the nature of commuters impact on the spatial distribution of employment and the implications for planning and economic development. The research will contribute to the understanding of whether commuters are positively facilitating the development of polycentric regions or negatively, contributing to the growth of metropolitan commutersheds and the suburbanisation of rural communities. This project extends the existing research into commuters and employment, the spatial distribution of industry and mega-city regions, resulting in a project that provides new insights into how regional-urban commuting translates into the establishment and development of industry sectors in regional areas.
