10/10/2026
Aurora chances Looking more promising tonight.
🌌 AURORA AUSTRALIS OUTLOOK — TASMANIA TONIGHT 🌌
Saturday 10 October 2026
There is a reasonable chance of photographic aurora activity across Tasmania tonight, particularly across southern parts of the state.
Geomagnetic activity is currently sitting around Kp 3, with modelling suggesting activity could remain around Kp 3–4 through parts of tonight.
The Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre currently has G0 conditions forecast with a chance of G1 geomagnetic storm conditions as lingering CME influences continue.
📸 Photographic Aurora Chance: MODERATE
👀 Visible Aurora Chance: LOW–MODERATE
⚡ Overall Potential: MODERATE
For Tasmania, Kp 3 can be enough for aurora activity around the southern horizon, while Kp 4 provides better prospects across the state. Whether we actually get a decent display will depend heavily on solar-wind conditions and the magnetic-field orientation during the night.
☁️ CLOUD CONDITIONS TONIGHT
⭐ Hobart & Southeast — GOOD
Partly cloudy and largely dry around Hobart and much of the Southeast tonight. There should be plenty of breaks available for viewing, although cloud may be more extensive towards the far south.
⭐ East Coast — GOOD TO VERY GOOD
Partly cloudy conditions with little rainfall expected. The East Coast should offer some of Tasmania's better viewing conditions tonight.
⭐ Northwest Coast — IMPROVING
Earlier showers are easing with skies becoming mostly clear around places such as Devonport. Good viewing opportunities should develop through the evening.
🌥️ Launceston & Central North — FAIR TO GOOD
Showers have mainly been an afternoon and early-evening feature, so conditions should gradually improve tonight with breaks developing.
🌧️ West & Southwest — POOR TO FAIR
Still the least favourable part of Tasmania, with patchy cloud and further showers expected. There may be occasional breaks, but viewing will be much more hit-and-miss.
🌑 PERFECT MOON CONDITIONS
One big advantage tonight is the almost completely dark Moon.
The Moon is only around 0.5% illuminated, sets around 7:09pm in Hobart, and New Moon occurs at 2:50am Sunday. That means virtually no moonlight interference tonight — excellent conditions for spotting faint photographic aurora.
🌌 BEST AREAS: Southern Tasmania, Tasman Peninsula, Southeast and East Coast locations with a clear southern horizon.
📱 Even if you can't see colour with your eyes, try taking a phone photo using Night Mode — cameras can often detect faint pink or green aurora before it becomes obvious visually.
Tonight is worth keeping an eye south. I wouldn't call it a guaranteed display, but conditions are certainly interesting enough to have the camera ready.
~ Nick
