Cryptonary

Everyone's trading HYPE. We're trading the high-beta way to play it.

KNTQ is the token behind Kinetiq, the liquid staking king of Hyperliquid. Over 80% of HYPE liquid staking flows through it. Think JitoSOL, but for HYPE.

For most of its life it was a weak trade. Then April 9 flipped the thesis: a 10% performance fee on staking rewards, 70% routed straight to KNTQ buybacks, a token that finally has a value-accrual engine.

The data backs it up. Pre-April, KNTQ barely tracked HYPE (0.211 correlation). Post-April, near lockstep (0.907), and on the rally it delivered roughly 2.4x HYPE's move. That's a real beta trade.

But beta cuts both ways. The sample is short, the buybacks are small, and Q4 brings real supply risk with unlocks starting Nov 27. In June, KNTQ fell harder than HYPE did.
Our take: not a free lunch, but it has earned a second look as the beta trade on HYPE.

Exact entry zones, invalidation levels, and our full Q4 playbook are in the report. Link in bio.

Everyone's watching BTC crash. We're watching for the entry.

BTC flushed into the low $59Ks before bouncing, and one of the loaded weeks of the year could hand us the buy.

The drop was real and ugly. Four straight weeks of ETF outflows, with -$1.72bn last week alone. No way to dress that up.

But underneath the price, something's shifting. The pressure that drove the sell-off is starting to ease.

Coinbase Premium is still negative but well off its lows. Open interest reset hard, from $19.6bn down to $16.6bn. CVD flatlined, so selling may have peaked locally.

And the 25 Delta Skew just peaked and turned. The last two times it did that, both marked local lows.

Bullish divergence has already printed on the 3D and Weekly. The Daily is the only missing piece.

Follow us so you catch the setup the moment it confirms.

Gm.

Wild week for the treasury guys, and a proper lesson in never trusting CT.

Saylor sold 32 BTC last week and CT lost its mind. Forced selling incoming. Strategy was finished. It was over lol.

Then he buys 1,550 BTC today and the same crowd flips. “Bad management.” “Irresponsible.” “He shouldn’t be buying.” From “he’s a forced seller who’s finished” to “he shouldn’t be buying” in the space of a week.

Same crowd psychology around Tom Lee. BitMine sitting on billions in paper losses on ETH, everyone calling him exit liquidity. Then he keeps buying. Same pile-on. Worth saying the two situations aren’t identical, BitMine’s balance sheet is younger and smaller, and ETH at least earns yield while BTC earns nothing. The vibes rhyme. The risk doesn’t.

Sell = he’s desperate. Buy = he’s reckless. There’s no version where these guys win with the crowd. Which tells you the crowd isn’t the thing to listen to.

And I’ll be honest, I love watching it. I’m bullish on these guys. They’re operating at a level almost nobody on that timeline can comprehend. These aren’t kids who fluked a memecoin, pulled a couple mill, shill tokens and call themselves KOLs. These are bad mfs who built actual empires. The people dunking on them have built nothing.

But respecting the players doesn’t mean ignoring the math. And the math this week is more interesting than the headlines.

That 32 BTC sale everyone freaked out about? $2.5M. In the same window, Strategy quietly sold over $120M of stock. The thing actually worth watching was 50x bigger than the coin sale, and CT focused on the wrong one.

Same with today’s buy. They funded it by issuing stock, used the cash to buy 1,550 BTC, and topped their dividend reserve up to $1B. That’s not reckless apeing. That’s buying Bitcoin and managing the bills at the same time. These guys are sharper than the timeline gives them credit for.

Here’s the part that matters though. Strategy owes around $1.6B a year in dividends on its preferred shares. Cash, every year, up market or down. Bitcoin produces none of it. So the bill gets paid by selling BTC, raising more debt, or issuing stock. Right now, with the stock trading below the value of the Bitcoin

When the market's in extreme fear, the question stops being "should I buy?" and becomes "at what price?" 💰

That's the whole idea behind dollar-cost averaging. Instead of trying to call the exact bottom, you accumulate in zones, and you lean in harder the deeper the discount gets.

Here are the levels we'd be watching:
BTC: $45K – $56K
ETH: $900 – $1,300
SOL: $30 – $40
HYPE: $26 – $38
XMR: sub - $135

These aren't predictions. They're the areas where the risk-to-reward starts getting interesting. Fear has a habit of creating prices that feel awful in the moment and obvious in hindsight.

So, real question: where would you throw the kitchen sink? 👇

Not financial advice. Always do your own research.

Same price. Opposite emotion 👀

In 2024, Bitcoin at $66K had the market in Extreme Greed (82) everyone was euphoric

In 2026, Bitcoin at the exact same $66K has the market in Extreme Fear (12). Same number, completely different mood

Nothing about the price changed, only how people feel about it did.

And historically, the best opportunities tend to show up when sentiment looks like the bottom gauge, not the top one

Fear doesn't change the price tag. It just changes who's willing to buy it

So at $66K, which are you, greedy or fearful? 👇

The bearish view is playing out. After losing $74,450, BTC pushed deeper into the weekly mitigation block, tagged the first target near $70,500, and is now hovering just above $69,000.

$69,000 is the level to watch. It lines up with the midpoint of the mitigation block and the weekly 200 EMA (~$69,200), a strong zone where support could start forming. The stance stays neutral-bearish/bearish. RSI is oversold (~25), so a short-term bounce is possible, but until BTC reclaims key levels, treat any upside as a relief bounce.

Key Levels:
Support: $68,800
Resistance: $72,700
Upside: $74,450 to $78,200
Downside: $65,650
Bias: Neutral-Bearish / Bearish

Cryptonary's Take: The downside targets are playing out cleanly, and $69,000 is one of the stronger higher-timeframe areas to watch for a reaction. We still don't have a confirmed reversal. A bounce from oversold is possible, but until BTC reclaims key levels or forms a clear bottoming structure, the neutral-bearish/bearish stance holds. We're watching how price behaves around $69K: if buyers step in and structure improves, we reassess; if not, deeper mitigation toward the lower end of the block stays on the table.

Crypto position sizing explained: the Kelly Criterion that beats the casino 🎲

How much should you invest per trade without blowing up? Ed Thorp used the Kelly Criterion to beat blackjack and the market: f = p − (q ÷ b).

But crypto isn't a clean win/lose bet. Use Kelly for your starting number, then filter it: conviction, liquidity, volatility, and a hard cap.

Example: full Kelly says $37,500 on a $250K portfolio. Filtered, you size at ~$15,000, same thesis, half the risk.

The truth about crypto risk management: position sizing isn't about the trades you get right. It's about surviving the ones you get wrong. 💀