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Zambian Investor, Lusaka (2026)

28/08/2026

Ba na Chipo has been selling tomatoes at K15.46 all morning.

Buyers are queueing. Demand is strong.

She thinks tomorrow I will charge K16.00.

Then a truck pulls up behind her stall.
240,000 tomatoes. Large commercial farm. Driver puts up a sign. K15.67. All you want.

Ba na Chipo cannot raise her price above K15.67.
The moment she tries every buyer walks past her to the truck.

The truck is not undercutting her.

It is capping her ceiling.

She can sell at K15.46. K15.50. K15.60.
But K15.68? Never. The truck is right there.

That truck is the 239,993 CECZ shares sitting at K15.67 on the order book.

Until that truck empties the price is going nowhere above K15.67.

This is what a price ceiling looks like.

Just a truck parked behind the stall.

Order Book Lesson Identify where the serious money is sitting.

27/08/2026

Someone shared this CECZ order book in our WhatsApp group today.

Which showed best bid K15.46 and best ask K15.47.Only one ngwee apart.

Most people look at this and think interesting. Then move on.

I want to show you 5 questions that turn this screenshot into an actual decision framework.

These work with any order book on any stock.

Question 1 Is there a trade to be made today?

If both bid and ask exist then yes.
If bid or ask is a dash then whala no trade.

For CECZ today the answer is yes. One ngwee apart means a trade is almost certain very soon.

Question 2 How long is the queue ahead of me?

31,184 shares are sitting at K15.47. That is the queue you join if you want to buy at the best ask.

We can see that CECZ traded 243,156 shares on August 20. Your queue clears in one session. For a less liquid stock this queue could mean waiting weeks.

Those are the times you start wondering if the app is misbehaving again.

Question 3 Where is the serious money sitting?

Look past the best bid and ask. Find the largest single orders. As we have always said pay attention to what the big buyers are doing.

In this case on the buy side 100,000 shares at K13.50. Someone with serious capital is waiting 12.7% below today's price.

On the sell side 239,993 shares at K15.67. A large seller wants K0.20 more than today's best ask before they exit.

Those two orders define the real negotiation range. K13.50 to K15.67. Not K15.46 to K15.47 that we see on the app.

Question 4 Who is winning buyers or sellers?

Add up both sides.
Total supply about 406,000 shares.
Total demand about 106,000 shares.

Sellers outnumber buyers 4 to 1 on CECZ today.

Think of it like this Ba na Chipo is selling tomatoes at K15.46. A buyer offers K15.47.

But parked at the entrance to Soweto Market visible to everyone is a chi large truck. A commercial farmer Chongwe with 240,000 tomatoes. He is not selling yet. He wants K15.67 not a ngwee less.

Every buyer at the market knows he is there.

So as prices start to rise nobody pays above K15.67.

They would rather wait for the farmer to unload than overpay at the stalls.

The farmer's truck is not even in the market yet. But his price is controlling every negotiation inside it.

That is what 239,993 shares sitting at K15.67 does to CECZ today.

Question 5 Can I exit if I need to?

This is the question most of us never ask before we buy.
If you bought 1,000 CECZ shares today at K15.47 and tomorrow have a ka pressure to sort out could I sell quickly at a reasonable price?

Look at the buy side above K15.00.

Only 1,195 shares at K15.40 or better.

Your 1,000 shares would consume most of that immediately. The next meaningful buyer is the 100,000 share order at K13.50 a 12.7% loss from where you bought.

Less buyers than sellers means your exit risk is real.

So that is the order book is not just a price display.

It is a negotiation in progress.

These five questions turn it from a screenshot into a decision.

Apply them every time before you place an order on LuSE.

This is financial education, not investment advice. Always consult a licensed professional before investing.

Which of these five questions do you find hardest to answer?

26/08/2026

It has been intresting times in Zambia over the past week. Thank goodness we are not politicians but investors.

The number of the day is $500 million.

That is REIZ's target portfolio size by end 2028.

Yesterday they reported their best ever half year results.

Revenue up 29.7% to $7.6 million.
Profit up 20.8% to $4.07 million.
Operating cash flow up 31.5% to $5.7 million.
Portfolio $110.4 million.

The growth story since REIT status in May 2024 is genuinely remarkable.

$33 million two years ago. $110.4 million today. A 234% increase in portfolio size in 24 months.

But lets take a look at the maths behind the $500 million target because it tells us something important about what comes next for every REIZ shareholder.

So the current portfolio is $110.4 million.
Add EastPark if the EGM approved the deal on July 30.

51% of a building independently valued at $160 million. Proportional addition to portfolio approximately $81.6 million.
Adding EastPark brings the portfolio value to $192 million.

Since the target is $500 million.
REIZ has to grow portfolio $308 million in 28 months by the end of 2028.

To get the monthly acquisition pace required to close that gap the need to aquire property worth $11 million every single month for the next 28 months. Ni pa tali.

If we compare the current acquisition pace over the past 27 months it has been $2.87 million per month.

The target requires nearly four times the current pace. The math is not matching.

Now is this impossible? No.

REIZ stated the strategy clearly share and asset swap arrangements. More rights issues. More EGMs. More deals like EastPark.

But more rights issues means more dilution. More EGMs means more votes. More deals means more scrutiny.

For investors who subscribed to the REIZ rights issue this is the forward looking question.

The half-year results prove the business model works. Revenue growing. Cash flowing. Tax exemption delivering real value to shareholders.

The $500 million target proves the ambition is real.

The honest question is whether the pace of deal making can increase fourfold in 28 months.

That answer will come from the next announcement not this one.

Watch SENS.

This is financial education, not investment advice. Always consult a licensed professional before investing.

Do you think REIZ can reach $500 million by 2028?

19/08/2026

Zambia has a result. No breaking news here,
President Hichilema re-elected. With approximately 60% of valid votes.

The uncertainty that has been sitting over every investment conversation since May has lifted.
Lets see what the data says because the real story is not what already happened. It is what comes next.

What happened to LuSE during the election period.
Palibe, ni zee LASI closed July 31 at 25,806.63 down just 0.44% year to date. The dramatic election sell-off most investors feared never arrived.

There was more action on the bond market.
Remeber the April 24 auction it came in at 43% subscription. Government offered K6.3 billion. Only K2.69 billion in bids arrived. We said at the time that election uncertainty was a possible reason.

Now the result is confirmed. The question changes from "what happened during the election" to "what happens next."

Three specific things to watch.

1. The IMF successor programme.
This is the real ichola. The previous $1.7 billion IMF arrangement expired in January 2026. We need to secure a new sprogramme by end of 2026.

Negotiating with the IMF close to elections is harder because policy commitments become politically. The election is now done. Successor programme negotiations can move faster.

Why does this matter for your investments?

The IMF is what brought offshore investors back to Zambian bonds in February pushing demand to K21.3 billion. The absence of that anchor contributed to the April undersubscription.

A successor programme could restore that confidence.

For now we watch for IMF announcement in the coming weeks.

2. The next bond auction.
Finance Minister Musokotwane said it is still too soon for Zambia to return to international bond markets. The government wants to focus its relationship with the IMF first.

But domestic bond auctions continue. The next auction will be the first after the election and will show if domestic and offshore demand has recovered.

We need to watch for subscription rates and yield direction. If subscription exceeds 100% election uncertainty has cleared. If yields fall confidence is returning.

3. The Zambia 2033 Eurobond.
Zambia's 2033 dollar bond was bid at 97.72 cents on the dollar on Tuesday unchanged.

The 97.72 cents is close to par which is 100. It signals international investors are comfortable with continuity but are not yet excited. They are waiting for the IMF programme not just the election result.

When the IMF programme is signed that bond could move toward par or above. That would signal the full return of international confidence.

The election did not create the dramatic buying opportunity the theory suggested. LASI barely moved. The real opportunity if it exists is forward-looking.

Bally's second term gives investors the policy continuity they wanted. But continuity is the starting point not the destination.

The IMF programme is the next catalyst. The bond auctions are the next test. The kwacha trajectory is the next signal.

These are the three things every Zambian investor should be watching right now.

This is financial education, not investment advice. Always consult a licensed professional before investing.
What are you watching most closely in the post-election market?

02/08/2026

2,350,000 shares.

That is how many ZAMBEEF shares were available for sale on LuSE.

This is the supply side of the July 30 Stockbrokers Zambia flow report.

Every stock on the right side of this chart has sellers waiting but no buyer has matched their price yet.

And ZAMBEEF had 2.35m shares sitting on the ask at K1.96. For context Zambeef has 609m total shares in issue.

2.35m available for sale is 0.39% of the entire company changing hands in one session if buyers showed up.

Now look at National Breweries.
Closed at K2.85. Current ask is K2.86. The red number.
Sellers are not accepting yesterday's price.
They want more.

In every other stock on the supply side sellers are asking at or below the previous close price.

CCAF closed at K0.87. The ask is K0.82.
Sellers are accepting 5.7% below the previous price.
Someone wants out of CCAF badly enough to discount.

The supply side teaches you not just how many shares are available. But how urgently sellers want to sell.

This is financial education, not investment advice. Consult a licensed professional before investing.

Why do you think 2.35m ZAMBEEF shares are available today?

01/08/2026

On July 30 2026 REIZ Extraordinary General Meeting was held to vote on the EastPark Mall acquisition.

And it shows up in the data.

REIZUSD 60,810 shares demanded.

The second largest demand volume on the entire board. On EGM day.
Investors are positioning before the result is announced.

Now look at ZAFFICO 1,000 shares demanded at exactly K2.53.

That is not a coincidence. K2.53 is the ZAFFICO rights issue subscription price.
Someone is buying ZAFFICO rights on the LuSE.

The flow report is not just showing you prices but also what investors are thinking.

ZAMBEEF has 2.35m shares available for sale. Best ask K1.96. Best bid K1.95.
One ngwee apart. And yet the 2.35 million shares have not moved.

Why?

Either no buyer wants 2.35m shares at K1.96.
Or the seller is a large institutional holder exiting a position and retail demand at K1.95 is not enough to absorb 2.35m shares.

On this day REIZ held it's EGM and three days before the August elections.
Election week. EGM day. ZAFFICO rights open.

This flow report is a snapshot of a market processing 3 events.

Learning to read it, is learning to read what Zambia's investors are actually doing not just what they are saying.

The numbers are always telling a story.

This is financial education, not investment advice. Consult a licensed professional before investing.

What story do you see in today's flow report?

01/08/2026

One ngwee.

That is all that separates a ZAMBEEF buyer from a ZAMBEEF seller today.
Bid is K1.95.
Ask is K1.96.

One ngwee apart.

And yet no trade.

This is what a spread looks like up close.

The spread is the gap between what the buyer is willing to pay and what the seller is willing to accept.

When that gap is small like ZAMBEEF a trade is almost certain to happen. Either the buyer raises their bid by one ngwee.

Now look at the other side. Stanchart on the demand side buyers bidding K1.26.
Stanchart on the supply side sellers asking K1.28.
Two ngwee apart. Still close. But the spread is slightly wider and the volumes are larger meaning both sides have more at stake before they move.

Now CCAF.

Buyers are not listed on the demand side.
But on the supply side sellers are asking K0.82 against last close of K0.87.

The seller has already moved toward the buyer before any buyer has appeared.

That is desperation pricing.

Someone wants out of CCAF today badly enough to offer a 5.7% discount upfront.

The spread tells you more than the price.

It tells you who needs the deal more.

Watch the spread not just the price.

This is financial education, not investment advice. Consult a licensed professional before investing.

Which spread on today's report surprises you most?

31/07/2026

K85,480

That is how many Klapton Reinsurance shares buyers are trying to buy yesterday.

This is the Stockbrokers Zambia Flow Report for July 30 2026.

The left side of this chart is the demand side.

Every stock listed there has buyers waiting money ready but no trade has happened yet.

Why?

Because a trade only happens when a buyer and seller agree on price.

Look at the red numbers in the Bid column.
Red means the buyer is bidding below yesterday's closing price.

Klapton Reinsurance closed at K0.35 the day before. The current best bid is K0.34.

The buyer is saying I want in, but not at yesterday's price. Give me a ka small discount.

ZAMBEEF closed at K1.97. Best bid K1.95. Same story.
Stanchart closed at K1.28. Best bid K1.26. Same.

The buyers are pa stand. The money is on the table. But they are not paying displayed price they want a discount.

REIZUSD has 60,810 shares demanded at K0.10.
REIZ had an EGM day. Shareholders were voting on the EastPark Mall acquisition. Demand for REIZ shares on the day of its most important vote worth noting.

And ZAFFICO 1,000 shares demanded at exactly K2.53.
That number is not a coincidence.
K2.53 is the ZAFFICO rights issue subscription price.
Someone is buying ZAFFICO rights on the market today.

This is financial education, not investment advice. Consult a licensed professional before investing.

What do you notice first when you look at the demand side?

31/07/2026

Someone in our WhatsApp has been trying to buy Zambia Sugar shares and asked "how do you know there is no supply?"

When you look at the total demand you see 1,250 shares.

Best Bid = K75.00 this is what buyers are ready to pay right now.

Best Ask is a dash or zero.
The Ask is the price a seller is willing to accept.
A dash means no seller exists.

Think of it like Soweto Market on a Sunday afternoon.
You have money. You want tomatoes. You know the price.

But Ba na Sibeso has gone home. Every stand is closed.

That is Zambia Sugar on this day.
1,250 shares of demand. Zero supply. K75 on the table.

And nobody to sell to them.

This is actually one of the most important things a new investor can understand about LuSE.

A share price is not just a number.

It is the last agreed price between a willing buyer and a willing seller.

When there are no sellers there is no new price.
The K70.00 you see as Previous Close that was last traded.

On this day only 33 shares traded before supply disappeared entirely.
The buyers are increasing the offer price to K75 trying to attract a seller.

The sellers are not moving.

Nobody is forced to sell on LuSE. Nobody is forced to buy. The price discovery process simply pauses.
Until both sides agree.

This is what a thin market looks like up close.

This is financial education, not investment advice. Always consult a licensed professional before investing.

Have you ever tried to buy a share on LuSE and found no supply?

29/07/2026

Most investors are waiting until after August to invest.

Howard Marks calls this first level thinking.

Second level thinking asks what is available right now that will not be available after everyone else returns?

Here is the question every Zambian investor should be asking this week.
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Zambian Investor

28/08/2026

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