Garrett Bastardi Weather

Tropical Weather Outlook
Issued: Monday, August 4th

Key Message:
The overall pattern is becoming more favorable for tropical storm/hurricane development. Over the next 2-3 weeks it is likely there will be multiple tropical threats from systems that will develop in the Caribbean and Southwest Atlantic. The pattern will be conducive not only for storm development, but the upper level pattern will favor tracks pushing these storms towards US coastlines if they develop.

3 WEEK TROPICAL OUTLOOK:

Tropical Storm Dexter:
Development Chance: Tropical Storm
Timing: Aug 4-6
US Coast Threat: None
Maximum Intensity Potential: Tropical Storm

-Area of Interest 1:
Development Chance: Medium
Timing: Aug 8-12
US Coast Threat: Low/Medium(Aug 10-12)
Maximum Intensity Potential: Tropical Storm

-Area of Interest 2:
Development Chance: Medium
Timing: Aug 9-13
US Coast Threat: Low(Aug 14-17)
Maximum Intensity Potential: Major Hurricane

-Area of Interest 3:
Development Chance: Medium
Timing: Aug 13-17
US Coast Threat: Low(Aug 17-20)
Maximum Intensity Potential: Major Hurricane

There is a lot of uncertainty with regards to tropical potential in the Gulf next week, BUT we do know whatever does potentially develop will be heavily influenced by the synoptic pattern across the US.

How deep and organized will troughing being across the US will play a big role with how intact an upper-level ridge will be over the Southeast US and Gulf.

-A weaker, more disjointed upper-level trough would lead to ridging remaining in tact and in turn a more favorable environment should a storm form in the Western Caribbean and move into the Gulf. This would also lead to more time over the very warm waters of the Gulf. Lastly, this would also create a lot more uncertainty as to where in the Gulf a potential system would head due to weaker steering.

-A stronger, deeper upper-level trough over the US would have a tendency to string out any system that tries to form, quicken the flow leading to less time to organize, but also give a clearer picture of a potential track with it being more likely to traverse the Eastern Gulf.

The spread amongst ensemble and operational guidance anywhere from formidable hurricane really anywhere in the Gulf, to strung out mess in the Eastern Gulf and into the Southwest Atlantic. While it's not certain a storm will form, that end is becoming a bit more likely, but its overall evolution both intensity and track-wise seem to be tied to how quick it gets pulled north, which will be heavily influenced by the upper-level factors mentioned above...

Images below:

1st Image: Two different model solutions on the upper-level pattern across the US next week. The differences have a significant impact on the potential outcome of any tropical system that does form in the Western Caribbean next week.

2nd Image: European Ensembles(model run with 100 different initial conditions to show the spread in uncertainty). You can see the spread of stronger(blue and light green storms) vs weaker(broad/dark green) storm next week.

3rd Image: European AI model showing a more coherent storm in the Western Gulf next week due to more favorable atmospheric conditions.

4th Image: GFS(American Model) showing a disjointed, weaker system farther east due to unfavorable atmospheric conditions next week.

An update on Tropical Storm Francine which will likely become a hurricane by this time tomorrow. The worst of impacts looks to be trending towards the Western and Central Portions of Louisiana Wednesday into Thursday, with some minor impacts from outer rain bands outside of those areas in Southern and Eastern Texas and farther inland in Mississippi and Arkansas/Tennessee.

Key Message:
Francine is strengthening in the Southwest Gulf of Mexico today and is likely to become a hurricane by tomorrow morning as it moves towards the northwest Gulf Coast. The track of Francine is centering on West/Central Louisiana being the landfall point Wednesday evening. The storm has the high end potential of reaching a Category 3 prior to landfall.

General Outlook:
Francine has the classic look of a strengthening tropical cyclone this afternoon, with very strong thunderstorms around the center and the pressure of the storm lowering according to a recon flying in the storm. Conditions will be very favorable over the next 48hours or so for the storm to intensify and perhaps rapidly intensify at times. As of now, we are expecting Francine to become a hurricane by midday Tuesday, and potentially a Category 2 hurricane by early Wednesday. Due to low shear and very high ocean temperatures, Francine reaching major hurricane status prior to landfall on Wednesday cannot be ruled out. Overall, the track philosophy for Francine has narrowed to a projected landfall between Port Arthur(LA) and New Iberia(LA). This would bring the core of hurricane impacts to Lake Charles(LA), Lafayette(LA), and Baton Rouge(LA), with the major metros of Houston/Galveston and New Orleans on the fringes. It should be noted that any shift west or east in track could still bring formidable impacts to either area, especially New Orleans as that metro is very susceptible to flooding impacts from major storms.

Visual Outlooks Below:

1st Image: Tropical Storm Francine intensifying in the Southwest Gulf

2nd Image: Francine Track and Impact Probability
-15%(Eastern Track)This track would mostly spare the Houston/Galveston areas but bring the worst of hurricane conditions to the Baton Rouge, and New Orleans metro area.
-70%(Central Track)The most likely track solution would bring the worst of conditions to far southeast Texas, and Western/Central Louisiana
-15%(Western Track)This scenario would bring impactful conditions to eastern portions of the Houston/Galveston Metro, with the worst conditions near Beaumont and Lake Charles.
Screenshot 2024-08-12 at 8.45.28 AM.png

3rd Image: Francine Impacts Tuesday through Thursday
Areas within RED:
Wind: 75-100mph
Rainfall: 8-14" Locally 16"
Storm Surge: 4-8' Right of Storm Path
Areas within ORANGE:
Wind: 50-75mph
Rainfall: 5-8" Locally 10"
Storm Surge: 3-5' Right of Storm Path
Areas within YELLOW:
Wind: 20-40mph
Rainfall: 2-4" Locally 6"
Storm Surge: 2-4' Right of Storm Path
Screenshot 2024-09-09 at 11.18.45 AM.png

4th Image: Storm Surge Forecast From the National Hurricane Center

5th Image: Simulated radar loop of Francine today through Thursday

Areas along the TX and LA coastlines should start to prepare for a potential hurricane impact Tuesday through Thursday of this week. As of now, the worst of the impacts look to be from just east of Galveston(TX) to Beaumont(TX) and as far east as Lake Charles(LA). Just outside of that, Houston on the west and Baton Rouge and as far east as New Orleans on the east need to watch for any shifts in track over the next few days...

The tropical disturbance we've been tracking over the last several days in the Gulf of Mexico is beginning to gain in organization today. Model guidance is also indicating that the system has a high likelihood of taking advantage of favorable conditions for intensification. A hurricane is likely to impact Southeast Texas and Western/Central Louisiana mid-week. Areas from Houston/Galveston to Beaumont, Lake Charles, and Baton Rouge need to monitor the progress of this storm.

Images Below:

1st Image: Satellite loop of the system developing in the Gulf of Mexico

2nd Image: Track and Impact Probability Map

-25%(Eastern Track)This track would mostly spare the Houston/Galveston areas but bring the worst of conditions to the Lake Charles, Baton Rouge, and New Orleans metro area.
-60%(Central Track)The most likely track solution would bring the worst of conditions to the eastern portions of Galveston Island, just southeast of the Houston Metro, and hurricane conditions to the Beaumont/Port Arthur, and Lake Charles areas.
-15%(Western Track)This scenario would bring the worst impacts to the Galveston/Houston Metro areas. As well as Corpus Christi and other Coastal Texas towns.

3rd Image: Modeled Potential Tracks of the Storm through Mid-Week

An update on a developing tropical system in the southern Gulf of Mexico. After a quiet stretch of weather across the country and a quiet stretch of the hurricane season, things are beginning to wake-up across the Atlantic and this starts with a potential tropical storm/hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico this week. The next name on the list would be 'Francine'. The outlook below outlines the threats to the Texas and Louisiana Gulf Coast Tuesday through Thursday from this developing storm. These areas also include the metro areas of Corpus Christi(TX), Houston/Galveston(TX), Beaumont/Port Arthur(TX/LA), and Lake Charles(LA). While we will know more details in the next day or so after a coherent storm has developed, areas mentioned about can start to prepare for impactful wind and rainfall, as well as coastal flooding along the TX/LA coastlines.

Key Message:
The rounds of showers and storms over the last several days associated with a low pressure off of the Southeast Texas Coast will sink southward and interact with another low pressure in the southern Gulf over the weekend. These two systems will combine and likely develop into a tropical storm early next week. This storm will move towards the TX and LA coasts mid next week as a strong tropical storm or potentially a hurricane.

**Additional Updates Will be Issued As Needed**

System 1:
Timing of Potential US Impacts: Tuesday-Thursday
Where: All of Coastal Texas, Western Louisiana
Impact Chances: Medium/High
Impacts: Moderate
Forecast Confidence: Medium

General Outlook:
It is becoming increasingly likely that a strong tropical storm or hurricane will impact the Western Gulf Coast during the middle of next week, the Tuesday through Thursday timeframe. There is still some uncertainty with exact track and intensity until we get a coherent system to develop over the weekend, regardless, an impactful storm that will bring coastal flooding, inland flooding, and potentially wind damage for all of Coastal Texas and Western Louisiana. Some metro areas of concern for this storm will be Corpus Christi(TX), Galveston/Houston(TX), Beaumont/Port Arthur(TX/LA), and Lake Charles(LA). Continually updates will be issued as this threat materializes and progresses.

Images Below:

First Image: Satellite loop of the system developing in the Gulf of Mexico

2nd Image: Track and Impact Probability Map
-15%(Eastern Track)This track would mostly spare the Houston/Galveston areas but bring the worst of conditions to the Lake Charles, Baton Rouge, and New Orleans metro area.
-60%(Central Track)The most likely track solution would bring the worst of conditions to the eastern portions of Galveston Island, just southeast of the Houston Metro, and hurricane conditions to the Beaumont/Port Arthur area.
-25%(Western Track)This scenario would bring the worst impacts to the Galveston/Houston Metro areas. As well as Corpus Christi and other Coastal Texas towns.

3rd Image: Potential Impacts Tuesday through Thursday
Areas within RED:
Wind: 60-80mph
Rainfall: 6-12" Locally 15"
Coastal Storm Surge: 4-8' Right of Storm Path
Areas within ORANGE:
Wind: 40-60mph
Rainfall: 3-6" Locally 8"
Coastal Storm Surge: 3-5' Right of Storm Path
Areas within YELLOW:
Wind: 20-40mph
Rainfall: 2-4" Locally 6"
Coastal Storm Surge: 2-4' Right of Storm Path

4th Image: Modeled Rainfall

5th Image: Modeled Maximum Wind Gusts

There is still some potential for a weak but slow moving tropical depression or storm to form early next week in the Northwest Gulf of Mexico. A potentially larger concern down the road is the increasing likelihood of a tropical storm to develop in the Caribbean early next week and enter the Gulf of Mexico as a hurricane late next weekend. After that point there is some uncertainty as to where this system will directly impact, but as the threat materializes continued updates will be issued to keep you up to date.

Forecast Issued: Friday, August 30th

System 1:
Timing of Potential Impacts: Friday through Wednesday
Where: Southeast and Coastal Texas, Southern Louisiana
Impacts: Rounds of heavy rainfall and periodic gusty winds regardless of tropical development

System 2:
Timing of Potential Impacts: September 9-12
Where: US Gulf Coast. Florida
Impacts: If development occurs, potentially significant

Key Message:
Rounds of thunderstorms and bands of heavy rainfall will continue to impact Southeast Texas and Southwestern Louisiana through mid next week. Isolated flash flooding is possible through the Houston Metro and all of Southeast Texas. There is still the potential for a 'focusing' of the heavy rainfall early next week into a weak, but slow moving tropical storm. Were this to occur the flooding risk would increase in SE TX and SW LA. We are also monitoring potential development of another tropical system that will enter the Caribbean next week. Were this system to organize, which is becoming more likely, conditions would be very favorable for a potentially strong hurricane to develop and threaten the Gulf of Mexico.

**Additional Updates Will be Issued As Needed**

Areas of Concern:
Aug 30-Sept 4: Southeast Texas and Southern Louisiana
Sept 9-Sept 12: Gulf of Mexico Coastlines. East FL Coast. Bahamas

General Outlook:
Tropical moisture continues to form daily and move inland across Southeast Texas and Southwestern Louisiana during the afternoons. Isolated flooding will be an issue for the next several days while this occurs. There is still some chance of a more organized tropical system bringing heavier rainfall early next week, but this is still an outlier solution and a lower threat overall. The next system we are monitoring is currently just east of the Caribbean and will move westward over the weekend and into next week while likely organizing into a Tropical Storm. Chances are increasing that this system will enter the Gulf of Mexico late next weekend with atmospheric and oceanic conditions very favorable for intensification into a strong hurricane. Interests all along the Gulf and Southeast US Coastline should monitor the progress and development of this system. Potential impacts would be in the Sept 9-12 timeframe.

Images below:

Image 1: Models continuing to show a very clear signal for heavy rain through mid-late next week. Anytime we see this signal we look for potential 'in-close' tropical development.

Image 2: Forecast and impact probability for the tropical system that will potentially threaten the Gulf of Mexico Sept 9-12.

Image 3: Both major forecast models showing a major hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico September 9/10.

Tropical Weather Outlook

Forecast Issued: Wednesday, August 28th

Timing of Potential Impacts: Thursday through next Thursday. Worst of potential impacts late weekend into early next week.

Where: Southeast and Coastal Texas, Southern Louisiana

Key Message:
A stretch of very wet weather is likely through next week in the Northern Gulf of Mexico and Coastal Regions of the Upper Texas Coast and Louisiana Coast. There is some potential for the energy associated with this wet weather to 'bundle/focus' into a slow moving tropical system. This would lead to the potential for higher rainfall totals and flooding through Southeast Texas and Southwestern Louisiana late this weekend and next week, were the system to develop and enhance rainfall totals.

**Additional Updates Will be Issued As Needed**

Areas of Concern:
Southeast Texas and Southern Louisiana

General Outlook:
The main concern overall will be the potential for a slow-moving tropical storm to develop within this region of enhanced rainfall over the next week. While right now, there isn't a ton of model support for this threat materializing, the trend has been towards this being more of a risk of this early next week. So the main message for now would be to expect a widespread area of moderate rainfall totals through Southeast Texas the rest of this weekend and into the next week with some isolated flooding, with the high end potential of a slow-moving tropical depression or storm developing early next week leading to a focused area of heavier(10"+) rainfall totals through Southeast Texas, including potentially the Houston Metro Area that would lead to the potential for a more widespread flooding event.

Visual Outlooks Below:

1st Image: Satellite Loop of Storms Organizing in the Gulf of Mexico

2nd Image: Models showing a very clear signal for heavy rain through mid-late next week. Anytime we see this signal we look for potential 'in-close' tropical development.

3rd Image: Predicted flooding potential late this week and into next week
Areas within RED:
Rainfall: 3-6" Locally 8"
Flooding Potential: Low and Localized
Areas within PURPLE:
Potential Rainfall: 8-10"+
Flooding Potential: If storm develops, potentially significant in areas

4th Image: Below: Some model guidance beginning to show low-pressure developing in the Northwestern Gulf. Trends of this will be important to monitor over the next several days.

5th Image: Below: Modeled pressure falls. This is a signal that models are showing the potential for a tropical system to develop late weekend and into early next week.

Still monitoring the Atlantic where things continue to be quiet and will be for the next 5-7 days. After that, there is a Tropical Wave that will be moving westward through the Eastern Atlantic that will be need to be watched for potential development during the first week of September. There is increasing model support for development and the system to be a potential land threat in the September 6-12 timeframe. So still another 10 days at least before any potential US impacts(if development occurs).

Another area to watch will be in the Gulf of Mexico where this week there will be a lot of tropical moisture to impact Coastal Texas and Louisiana, but not enough 'focusing' of that moisture and energy to develop a tropical storm. Regardless, a wetter stretch of weather is expected this week and into next week along the Gulf Coast. There is some threat for minor tropical development late this weekend and into next week if some of the enhanced tropical moisture and energy can focus enough in one spot to develop.

Below are 3 images:

First Image:
Probability of Tropical Development and Land Impact forecast issued today.
*Little to no chance of US impacts over the next 7 days*
-There is a MEDIUM chance of tropical development August 29-September 4 in the Central/Southwestern Atlantic. If development does occur, there will be a LOW but potentially increasing threat to the Bahamas Sept 4-7 and US Coastlines Sept 6-12.

-There is a LOW chance of tropical development August 30-September 3 in the Gulf of Mexico. If development does occur there will be a LOW potentially increasing threat of wind and rain to Gulf Coastlines.

Second Image/GIF:
This is the European Model 'Ensembles'.
An 'Ensemble' is a set of forecasts that show the range of possible future weather conditions. The forecasts are created by running a computer model multiple times, each with a slightly different starting condition. We call each individual model within the ensemble a 'member'. So the loop you see isn't 30-40 storms at once, but the model overlaying all the member solutions it sees at a given time, on one image. The more storms you see, the more members believe development will occur. This model loop is depicting the potential for development we have outlined for the first week of September in the Atlantic.

Third Image:
Another way of looking at 'Ensembles'. The model is showing 'member' tracks. So anytime we are seeing a widespread cluster of tracks like this, it increases confidence that there will potentially be a storm in this area at the given time frame. In this case, about 7-8 days from now. I've overlayed our development probabilities over the track clusters for reference of our forecast vs the modeled forecast.

*If there are any questions, please feel free to comment below!*

It's been a pretty quiet last 5-10 days in the tropics with Hurricane Ernesto turning out to sea before it could get too far west to impact any US interests. I expect another 5-7 days of quiet across the Atlantic before the basin 'wakes up' as we head towards the peak of the season.

Some background on the hurricane season up to this point:
Leading up to this hurricane season, there was lot made about how active this hurricane season would be, but as of late, a general lull in US impacts since Hurricane Debby has led to a lot of talk of 'where are all the hurricanes?' Well, believe it or not, despite the lack of named storms, using the ACE index(ACE stands for 'Accumulated Cyclone Energy)2024 is currently the 2nd most active season to this point on record. Behind only the historic 2005 season which featured Hurricanes Katrina, Rita, and Wilma. 3 Hurricanes, 2 US Hurricane Landfalls, and 1 Major Hurricane prior to August 20th puts 2024 already in an upper echelon of 'impactful activity' despite the lack of total named storms to this point. What we haven't seen in 2024 have been the 'junk' storms develop 1000s of miles out to sea that typically boost the storm total numbers to this point.

All this to say, do not let your guard down as we head into the peak of the hurricane season. 75-80% of all hurricane activity occurs AFTER August 25th, so we still have a long ways to go and the background state of the Atlantic is still VERY FAVORABLE for hurricanes.

Okay, now onto the tropical outlook:
The majority of the Atlantic will remain quiet for another week or so. After that there will be two areas to start monitoring. A cold front will dip into the Gulf of Mexico late this week. Energy with this front could stall over the northern Gulf and this has the potential to lead to a 'home-grown' tropical threat. Right now we have development probabilities listed as 'LOW' for this threat, but it is something to keep monitoring along the northern and western portions of the Gulf Coast. After August 25th, expect the Main Development Region of the Atlantic to become more favorable. Tropical Waves exiting off Africa and into this region tend to be the source of the most impactful tropical systems down the road. Expect a 'MEDIUM' probability of tropical development in this region in the August 25-September 2 timeframe.

Images below:
-UmbrellaWeather Probability of Tropical Development and Land Impact

-Cumulative ACE as of August 19th

Another hurricane is likely to develop next week. As we move closer towards the peak of hurricane season, it is likely that any storms that develop will be more and more intense.

Discussion:
While Debby continues to impact the Eastern US with flooding rainfall, there is growing confidence that another tropical system will develop in the Central/Western Atlantic, early to mid next week. Conditions look very favorable in these regions for this system to intensify into a hurricane. While it is too early to determine the exact path of this system and what impacts to the US there may be next weekend and the following week, it is likely we will be dealing with a hurricane in a threatening position in relation to Southeastern and Eastern US coastlines 7-10 days from now.

3 WEEK TROPICAL OUTLOOK:

-(System 1)There is a HIGH and INCREASING chance of tropical development August 12-18 in the Central/Southwestern Atlantic/Northern Caribbean. If development occurs, there will be a MEDIUM and INCREASING threat of impacts to the Southern and Central Bahamas August 14-17. There is a LOW but POTENTIALLY INCREASING threat of impacts from a developing tropical system to East Florida and the US Mid-Atlantic and Northeast Coasts August 17-20.

-There is a MEDIUM chance of tropical development in the Central/Eastern Atlantic August 17-25.

Visuals Below:

-Satellite Image of the Tropical Atlantic

-3 Week Tropical Development and Land Impact Outlook

-Zoomed in view of the 3 Week Tropical Development and Land Impact Outlook

Feel free to reach out with any questions!