Jewish Weather Authority

ADDITIONAL SNOW CHANCES ❄️

No, we're not done with winter quite yet. Yes, there are a few additional chances to see the white stuff over the next week. Let me do a quick breakdown for you.

TONIGHT / TOMORROW MORNING

Snowflakes will fly. It could very well be lightly snowing for the morning commute. I'm not expecting this to be anything noteworthy. I don't foresee it sticking on roads, but some areas could pick up a coating just south of Philly (where rain may also fall) to as much as 1" north of Philly on some but not all surfaces.

Model Matchup:

GFS - Coating to half inch.
EURO - Coating to 1".
CMC - Coating to 1".
ICON - Nothing.
NAM - Coating to half inch.

THURSDAY PM / FRIDAY AM

Watching a southern slider. If it moves far enough north, we could be talking about some snow from Philly on north with some rain south of there. If it moves further south, we bring the chance of precipitation out most of the area. If it moves further north, we bring the rain chance further north, maybe some mixing or freezing rain. The precipitation will be light and there would be no roads issues.

Model Matchup:

GFS - Coating to 1".
EURO - Nothing.
CMC - Nothing.
ICON - Coating to half inch in southern areas.
NAM - Nothing.

MONDAY / TUESDAY

Well...are we ready to believe the GFS again? While most of the other models show a small to non-event, the GFS is showing accumulating snow. I am in no way ready to make a determination on this. Things are moving a bit too quickly in the weather department. Will have more later this week.

Your Jewish Weather Authority,
Joe Costin

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SNOWFALL TOTALS ❄️❄️❄️

How did I do? What is your grade for me this go around? Thanks to everyone who sent me their observations.

I have to pat myself on the back for this one. There was so much model disagreement right up until the storm. For the most part, my numbers verified. The major exception is areas west of Philly which saw lower totals than expected, which I stated might happen but wasn't sure exactly where it would set up. A few cities in Bucks, Burlington, Gloucester, and Ocean Counties surpassed my forecast due to banding, which I also talked about. We laughed at the GFS model most of this winter so far, but it did a good job with this storm. It was a bit high with totals, but it saw the storm well in advance when others didn't and it never backed down.

PENNSYLVANIA

Philadelphia County
FORECAST: 10-18"
OFFICIAL TOTALS: 10-16"
OFFICIALLY 14" AT PHILLY INT'L
MY SOUTH PHILLY TOTAL: 11.5"

Berks County
FORECAST: 7-14"
OFFICIAL TOTALS: 2-5"
Top Spot: Lyons - 5"

Bucks County
FORECAST: 10-18"
OFFICIAL TOTALS: 12-22"
Top Spot: Langhorne - 22.3"

Chester County
FORECAST: 7-14"
OFFICIAL TOTALS: 5-12"
Top Spot: Malvern - 12.3"

Delaware County
FORECAST: 10-18"
OFFICIAL TOTALS: 8-13"
Top Spot: Morton - 13.4"

Lehigh County
FORECAST: 7-14"
OFFICIAL TOTALS: 3-7"
Top Spot: Salisbury Twp - 7.3"

Montgomery County
FORECAST: 10-18"
OFFICIAL TOTALS: 7-13"
Top Spot: Norristown - 13.4"

NEW JERSEY

Atlantic County
FORECAST: 16-24"
OFFICIAL TOTALS: 15-19"
Top Spot: Mays Landing - 19"

Burlington County
FORECAST: 10-18"
OFFICIAL TOTALS: 10-21"
Top Spot: Leisuretowne - 21"

Camden County
FORECAST: 10-18"
OFFICIAL TOTALS: 10-18"
Top Spot: Somerdale - 18"

Cape May County
FORECAST: 16-24"
OFFICIAL TOTALS: 12-16"
Top Spot: Ocean City - 16"

Cumberland County
FORECAST: 16-24"
OFFICIAL TOTALS: 12-16"
Top Spot: Bridgeton - 16.1"

Gloucester County
FORECAST: 10-18"
OFFICIAL TOTALS: 15-21"
Top Spot: Pitman - 21.5"

Ocean County
FORECAST: 16-24"
OFFICIAL TOTALS: 16-26"
Top Spot: Bayville - 25.8"

Salem County
FORECAST: 10-18"
OFFICIAL TOTALS: 10-18"
Top Spot: Monroeville - 18"

DELAWARE

Kent County
FORECAST: 16-24"
OFFICIAL TOTALS: 10-20"
Top Spot: Woodside - 20.5"

New Castle County
FORECAST: 10-18"
OFFICIAL TOTALS: 6-10"
Top Spot: Hockessin - 10"

Visit https://www.weather.gov/wrh/TextProduct?product=pnsphi&id=e5f545da-8eb0-4df6-b9aa-2df2734f9dfd for the full list of cities and totals.

Your Jewish Weather Authority,
Joe Costin

SUPER SNOW FINAL FORECAST

❄️⛄️❄️⛄️❄️⛄️❄️⛄️❄️⛄️❄️

IT’S HERE!!! The changeover from rain to snow has already occurred at the Jersey Shore and other places. As the storm deepens, the changeover will spread across the entire area very quickly. As I have been looking over the most recent data, everything seems to be on track.

Blizzard Warnings reach westward into the easternmost counties of Pennsylvania along the Delaware River. The entire state of New Jersey and the entire state of Delaware are also under Blizzard Warnings. Officially, the National Weather Service defines a blizzard as a storm which contains a large amount of snow or blowing snow, with winds in excess of 35 mph and visibilities of less than 1/4th mile for at least 3 hours. While areas closest to the coast have the best chance of seeing a textbook blizzard which fit all those descriptions, all areas under the blizzard warning have a chance of seeing blizzard conditions on and off overnight into tomorrow morning. Areas west of Philly are under a Winter Storm Warning.

The storm will undergo bombogenesis with a drop of over 24 millibars with a 24-hour period. In fact, many models bring this to a sub-970mb low pressure. It is going to have the look of a hurricane. Overnight, winds will gust over 50 mph across eastern New Jersey, over 35 mph at times in the Philly area, and over 25 mph at times across the western suburbs. 1-2” per hour snowfall rates can be expected overnight with up to 3” per hour possible where any banding sets up. There is also the chance of an inverted trough developing which could lead to enhanced snowfall in some places. Both of these features could lead to areas of lighter snow and dry slots which could mean very different snow amounts over a very short distance.

My thinking has not changed as far as total snow accumulations. My predictions are a bit higher than local TV stations. Due to the warm ground temperature, I think we lose an inch or two off the front, which I have factored in. Once the storm bombs out and things get going though, I fully expect the snow to overcome everything and start sticking very quickly. I think the main roads will remain wet and slushy but that snow will begin to accumulate on everything once darkness gets here. I would not be surprised to hear the roar of thunder or the flash of lightning in Philly or New Jersey if this storm reaches its full potential. Thundersnow is awesome!

My thinking has not changed. I realize that my numbers are a bit higher than local TV stations, but I’m not budging.

SOUTH & EAST: 16-24”
(30+ miles from Philly to the shore)

PHILLY METRO: 10-18”
(All areas within 30 miles of Philly)

NORTH & WEST: 7-14”
(30+ miles from Philly)

In all areas, there could be some places that exceed that highest number. I don’t expect anywhere to fall below what I am forecasting. I expect schools to be closed for a few days. And as far as that virtual learning BS…give it a break. Let the kids enjoy their Snow Days.

Let me know what’s happening in your neighborhood throughout the storm and send me your final totals! I’ll be awake all night.

Your Jewish Weather Authority,
Joe Costin

❄️☃️❄️ SUPER SNOW ❄️☃️❄️

IT’S GAME ON!!! What could potentially be the biggest snowstorm some areas have seen in over a decade is possible tomorrow into Monday. Sorry for getting to this so close to the event. I’ve been a busy guy with birthday festivities out in Lancaster County. Then I had to go shopping today because I didn’t have anything substantial in the house. Add in a hyper 3-year-old and that leads me to where I am.

So, while this isn’t my typical long-ass write-up (that’ll come overnight), it’s a quick summary of where things stand at this point and my thoughts.

The GFS has been consistently showing this storm for days on end. All winter, we laughed at the GFS for showing some crazy things. Is it finally going to laugh in our faces? Models that were showing little to nothing have jumped on board. The NAM has been showing over 2 feet of snow for multiple model runs now. One of the earlier runs actually showed Atlantic City at 44”, which I have never seen on model runs around here. I think that is grossly overdoing it, but it is amazing to see modeled.

Here are some other models and the average of what they’ve been putting out over the past 3-4 model runs:

NAM: 16-40+”
GFS: 18-30”
NAM 3km: 12-26”
UKMET: 3-20”
EURO: 6-16”
CMC: 3-16”
ICON: 5-15”

All models have this storm bombing out off the coast. How quickly that happens will determine a lot of this. Gusts of 50+mph are expected through much of New Jersey where Blizzard Warnings are in effect. Winter Storm Warnings are in effect in Pennsylvania. 35+mph gusts can be expected in Philly with 20+mph gusts north and west. Local stations are saying 12-20” south and east, 6-12” in Philly, and as little as 3” north and west. I would be very surprised if somebody makes it out of this without seeing at least 6”.

My Thinking:

SOUTH & EAST: 16-24”
PHILLY METRO: 10-18”
NORTH & WEST: 7-14”

I might have to adjust these numbers when I give my full report. STAY TUNED!

Which model do you want to be correct?

Your Jewish Weather Authority,
Joe Costin

❄️❄️❄️ FIND YOUR YARDSTICK! A TYPICAL 12” RULER MIGHT NOT HELP MEASURE THIS TIME! ⛄️⛄️⛄️ Full forecast tomorrow. MANY models are putting out INSANE numbers for Sunday into Monday! This could wind up being a major to dare I say historic snowstorm for some of us! 😮

YES, it IS going to snow on Sunday and Monday. I haven’t backed down from that thought. I’ve been celebrating my birthday. I’ll have an update late tonight or tomorrow morning. Get your shovels ready!!! ❄️

📣 PUBLIC SERVICE ANNOUNCEMENT 📣

❄️ Winter is NOT over! ❄️ That is all for now.

BRUTALLY COLD 🥶

The coldest weather of the season and the coldest weather we’ve seen in a long time is knocking on our doorstep. Any snow showers can lead to a dusting, especially on colder surfaces.

An EXTREME COLD WARNING is in effect from 6AM Saturday until Noon on Sunday. Daytime highs will hang out in the teens. Nighttime lows will be in the single digits. Wind chill values will stay below zero on Saturday and approach 20 DEGREES BELOW ZERO at times on Saturday night. It is going to be a dangerous time to be outdoors.

Those wind chills will be due to HIGH WIND WARNINGS and WIND ADVISORIES that are in effect from 8AM-9PM on Saturday. Gusts up to 50-60 MPH are expected. This prolonged period of high winds could lead to power outages and damage. If you have anything outside that can blow around, tie it down.

Your Jewish Weather Authority,
Joe Costin

DATE NIGHT ON US?! Yes. Everyone has a chance to win. Fill out the form, we will be selecting a winner this weekend! Tiver Transportation will pick you up and take you home from the restaurant. We will be giving you a gift card of $150 to cover dinner! Good luck!! 1. Share this post 2. Tag a friend 3. Fill out the form We will be CALLING you directly. Please do not fall for spam/scams.

GROUNDHOG DAY 2026

Another year hath passed,
Groundhog Day is here;
Another prognostication
For yet another year.

Snow was here last week,
Now ice is all around;
Not the immigration kind,
The type that's a glaze on the ground.

Will it ever be warm again?
When will it all go away?
Are you sick of the winter weather?
Well, here's what I have to say:

Earlier this morning,
The sun came up over my hole;
I know that may sound dirty,
But that's where I live like a mole.

The temperature was incredibly chilly,
The wind made it even worse;
The cold weather's not good for a groundhog,
And so, I let out a four-lettered curse.

As I started my trek to the top,
The sun was bright in the sky;
It didn't provide much warmth,
I thought I was going to die.

Alas, I got to the exit,
My shadow was there on the ground;
Six more weeks of winter,
Coldness and more snow abound.

HAPPY GROUNDHOG DAY, EVERYONE!!!

Your Jewish Weather Authority,
Groundhog Joe

WEEKEND ❄️ STORM POTENTIAL

The rumors are out there. Yes, there will be a huge storm, but I’m not on board with any potential impacts here. Mostly all models show this going off the coast with the exception of a brushing of snow confined to the shore. With that being said, however, models have trended more NW over time as we’ve gotten closer to storms. Can this move the hundred or so miles closer to the coast? Short-range models begin to pick up on this in our area tomorrow. Interested to see what they do.

As of today, I’m saying close but no cigar for the majority of us. But I’m keeping an eye on it.

*Pats himself on the back for an excellent forecast three days out with the last storm even though others showed higher totals.*

Your Jewish Weather Authority,
Joe Costin

WINTER WALLOP ❄️❄️❄️

Some things to get out of the way first:

Storm of all storms? Not even close.
Go out and buy the entire supermarket? No.
Take a nice drive on Sunday? Not recommended.
Quite disruptive with the need to shovel? Yes.
Will schools be closed on Monday? Yes.
Will work be closed on Monday? Hopefully.
Build a snowman? Go for it if the snow packs well enough! Don't forget to send me a picture!

First, thank you to everyone who has reached out to me wondering where my forecast was. I've been a busy bee, but I've been keeping an eye on things. It's a long read but very informative, I promise.

A potent winter storm is poised to move across the country this weekend. Currently, there are 30 states with some sort of winter weather alert stretching from Arizona all the way to Maine. That's crazy! In between the rain and the snow will be a battle zone where freezing rain could cause massive power outages. Earlier in the week, there was some concern that high pressure to our north could keep the storm suppressed to our south. However, that high appears to be weaker now, opening the door to the northern trend on the models. Is that northern trend done? Will the models correct back to the south a little? There are many questions that still need to be answered, especially since the storm hasn't even formed yet.

So, here's what I know. Late Saturday night into Sunday morning, snow will overspread the entire area from southwest to northeast. With temperatures in the single digits and teens, there is no doubt that the snow will stick to everything that wasn't pre-treated immediately. I can't remember the last time it snowed with temperatures that cold. It will stay light through about 6AM at which point the snow will become moderate to heavy. This intensity will fluctuate through Sunday until about 6PM. By early Monday morning, most of the precipitation will be gone and shoveling can begin.

Temperatures on Saturday will not rise above 20 degrees for the majority of us. Lows on Saturday night will dip into the lower to middle teens. During the day on Sunday, things get interesting, which could make or break the forecast for some of you. As the main low-pressure system works up the Tennessee Valley, it will transfer its energy to a new low-pressure off the coast. Exactly how far north the original low moves, exactly when the transfer of energy takes place, and exactly where the new coastal low tracks will all determine how far north the sleet, freezing rain, and plain rain make it. This would happen through the afternoon hours on Sunday but remember...it will already have snowed for 10-12 hours by that time, so everybody will have accumulation. Fun fact: the last time it snowed more than 6" in Philly was back in January of 2022 when we had 7.5", so it has been a while.

Continuing on temperature, there could be a nearly 20-degree temperature difference on Sunday between eastern PA and the Jersey Shore as temperatures could rise to 40 degrees along the coast while places near Philly stay in the low 20s! But how can mixing occur if temperatures are so low, Joe? Let me tell you. While temperatures will indeed be below freezing at the surface, something called warm air advection will occur higher up in the atmosphere. As the new low forms, it will bring 40-degree ocean air into the mix changing snow to either sleet or rain well above our heads. As it falls, it can do two different things depending how shallow the lower level of cold is. The rain could refreeze as it descends and fall as sleet or it could fall all the way as rain and freeze on surfaces below freezing, which is where you get freezing rain. Wherever the wintry mix happens around here, I'm expecting more in the way of sleet than freezing rain. Any icy mix would be on top of the snow that has already fallen.

And one more thing...when we're talking about temperatures as cold as they will be on Sunday morning, we have to talk about snow ratios. When temperatures are closer to 32 degrees, there is a 10:1 snow ratio meaning 10" of snow for every 1" of liquid. When you have colder temperatures, the snow is fluffier and those snow ratios increase. So now, for instance, it may become a 15:1 ratio meaning 15" for every 1" of liquid, or even more in some cases. It all depends on that temperature. That's the difference between a snow which you can easily make a snowman with and a snow that can't be packed to make that snowman. It's the difference between a snow that is incredibly difficult to shovel and one that is so much easier to shovel.

Don't forget about the wind. Expect gusts up to 30mph at times in and around Philly, and higher down the shore once the storm really gets going. After the storm, temperatures will stay below freezing right through the beginning of February. We're in the deep freeze, friends. Get ready for more cold days and even colder nights. That snow isn't going anywhere anytime soon.

And now what you've been waiting for (or simply just scrolled down to):

SNOWFALL BREAKDOWN BY REGION

SHORE POINTS
(The beach up to 10 miles inland)
(Atlantic City, Ventnor, Wildwood, Cape May)
4-7" prior to mixing/rain

SOUTH JERSEY
(Areas 30+ miles south and east of Philly)
(Millville, Hammonton, Mays Landing)
5-9" prior to mixing

PHILLY METRO
(Areas within a 30-mile radius of the city)
(Philly, Cherry Hill, Wilmington)
6-12" prior to mixing (higher end if no mixing)

N&W BURBS
(Areas 30-50 miles north and west of Philly)
(West Chester, Pottstown, Quakertown)
8-14" (all snow)

FAR N&W
(Areas 50+ miles north and west of Philly)
(Allentown, Reading, Gap)
10-16" (all snow)

If you take a look at the photos I've included, you'll see maps showing the type of precipitation that could fall (blue: snow, pink/purple: mix, green: rain). Look how far north that mix line gets in some instances. Will that actually happen? The other maps show some models (with their model name up top) along with the 10:1 snow ratio vs. the higher ratios. These are all from this afternoon's model runs.

Well, you wanted a forecast and you got it!!! Congrats if you've read it all. I'll have an update if I feel things are going differently than what I've relayed here.

Your Jewish Weather Authority,
Joe Costin