09/23/2021
Ten years ago an economist predicted that China’s economic power would overtake that of America by 2020.
That has come true—by one measure.
To forecast a country’s economic “dominance”, Arvind Subramanian combined the share of world trade, net capital exports and global GDP.
He gave each attribute a weight loosely based on the IMF’s method for allocating votes to its members, and then used this index to argue that China would become the world’s most dominant economy by the end of the decade.
But how has his prediction fared by other measures—and what does this mean for America? https://econ.st/3kyfEDu