The One Lance B

Heard on a call:
"All of us are always students.
All of us are always teachers."

Love it. Here is my Zen Buddhist trader adaptation:

Markets are always changing & as a result we as traders must always be adapting.

We as traders are always expressing our knowledge & strategies, which in turn, changes & molds the market.
♾♾♾♾♾♾♾

Read a post on here about how the Iran war will end shortly bc of Munger’s incentives framework and everyone is incentivized towards that outcome.

Author missed that the same exact examples could have been said for the Russia-Ukraine war.

I have no view on Iran, but my point is you can’t blindly rely on simple models for complex geopolitical situations. Nobody enters a conflict expecting a prolonged costly mess.

POSITIVE TRADING PSYCHOLOGY

It’s a surreal privilege nowadays to read ‘s new book while flying to see him speak live this past weekend at the Trading Summit (Brett is an incredible speaker full of expertise, humor, & real-world anecdotes).

Here is what I took away from his new book, Positive Trading Psychology:

-Go broad before you go deep.

-“Successful traders, like successful businesses, embrace the beginner’s mindset: they love learning new things. Their true edge in the markets is the ability to discover and pursue fresh edges.”

-Consistency isn’t about consistency of outcomes. Trading has slumps, drawdowns. It’s inevitable. Consistency is applying the same process to grow and evolve through those periods of outcome variance.

-“Whatever will make you successful in trading is something that, in some way, you’ve already done successfully in another arena of life.”

-“If we don’t have very concrete plans for losing and drawing down, we cannot prepare ourselves for the levels of risk-taking that could make us truly successful

See my video on this: youtu.be/o7DfwJTC_Ow?si…

-Positive psychology is holistic. It begins with your morning routine. It consists of your trading routine. It consists of your relationships and activities outside of trading. And ends with your bedtime routine. Everything you do builds up or breaks down your psychology.

-I see this all the time on the retail and prop side: working within a trading pod helps every aspect of your trading and Brett notes the psychological benefits as well. You are most resilient to survive the rough patches when you’re part of a team.

-Historically, psychology has focused on the mentally unwell and most people only focus on psychology during the rough patches. This book emphasizes the other side of the spectrum and how important it is to build positive psychology practices.

Curious anyone’s thoughts…

It seems that most of the swing traders on here ( ) tend to focus on swing momentum longs.

-Is that solely due to the fact that markets tend to go up over time?

-Is that bc you get far more asymmetry with longs?

-Do most of these traders also apply swing shorts using the inverse of their methodology?

-Would they do so if in a prolonged bear market?

-Or is a long bias that powerful for their data?

Most stocks tend to be stairs up and elevator down so seems like shorts could be higher ROI per day?

JAN ‘26 TOP OPPS

A much slower and more difficult month with main focus of course on the metals. Big money to be made but it certainly was not easy. As always these monthly opps are dissected in detail as part of my course.

1/7 $SNDK / $MU / $WDC
1/8 $RGC
1/14 $SLV ah
1/26 $BNAI metals
1/27 $GLD intraday
1/28 $CVNA. /GC /SI AH. $META AH
1/29 /PL /SI /GC
1/30 more metals…

TRADE SELECTIVITY HEAT MAP

Last week I did an annual review with an options trader that used to be on the prop side.

He could easily increase his pnl by 200% with one simple change.

The essence of the feedback I gave was this:

Most traders aren’t selective enough. They play too many -EV hands.

Optimal equity traders are very selective.

As an options trader, you need to be even more selective.

This visualization, using poker hands as an analogy, is worth a million words.
Who cares to explain this and why it’s even more critical for options traders?

If this Bitcoin move keeps going, I’m going to be able to get some SICK deals on green Lambos soon here in Miami!
$BTC