Kow Boi’s Full Frontal Forecast

Monday could be a problem. An unusually strong cold front is racing toward our area and in front of it is a line of very severe storms. Best case is heavy rain and wind, we are used to that. Worst case is super cell thunderstorm development, hail to one inch, wind gusts over 70 mph and tornadoes. We have rented hangar space for our Cessna at Leesburg airport for the next 36 hours. We have never done that before.

A meandering front will continue to produce rain showers this afternoon, we could even see a thunderstorm at some point tonight. Ceilings and visibilities will improve by 1pm tomorrow but there is a chance of more showers Saturday night. Sunday looks really nice with light southerly winds and temps in the high 60s to low 70s.

Everybody knows that there is potential for a major winter storm this weekend. Information is coming fast and furious from the usual suspects and most agree that there will be snow followed by ice. The question that I am seeing go unanswered is how can we get freezing rain when it’s so cold outside? The answer is warm air aloft. This storm is a warm air mass that will overrun the cold air that is already in place on the surface. When rain falls from this warm air mass the water will remain in a liquid state until it impacts a surface that is at or below freezing. Water does not automatically freeze at 32 degrees, it can remain liquid well below freezing and is then referred to as super-cooled. Super-cooled water droplets are very dangerous because they will instantly turn to ice on impact with a power line, road, car or airplane as long as that surface is cold enough. These droplets are especially threatening to aircraft when they impact a wing, run back a bit then freeze aft of any anti-iced/de-iced portion of the leading edge. This builds up a dangerous ridge of ice that destroys lift and cannot be removed. How much snow will we get? No clue. How much ice will we get…..too much. The temperatures will be incredibly cold following this storm so whatever we get will stick around. What about global warming, you know, the “It’s cold because it’s hot!” crowd? They can shovel our driveways.

A warm front of Bomb Cyclone potential will bring freezing rain to much of New England tonight. A huge warm airmass will override the cold air near the surface. Supercooled water will remain liquid until it impacts a colder surface. Precipitation will change to all rain by tomorrow morning.

Another strong cold front for JYO at 7am Friday morning. Rain and wind will be the theme tomorrow. Temps will start off in the low 50s and steadily drop until we are in the mid 20s by Saturday morning.

Kow Boi is back and it’s time for another full frontal! As you can see, a cold front is bisecting our nation’s capital at this moment. Will Leesburg see snow? Yes! How much? 🤷🏻 Probably not much, but there is a pocket of precipitation that is hanging out in the Ohio valley that could give us an inch. No matter what, it ends early tomorrow morning and the front will leave us with strong northwesterly winds and bitter cold. Fear not, it will be warm next week…….unfortunately.

Strong warm front coming through tonight, look for your first 80 degree day tomorrow. Cold front on Monday cools it back down with the possibility of T-storms Monday night.

Dual cold fronts set to hammer Loudoun County this evening. 20 degrees colder tomorrow.

Generally nice VFR conditions will prevail through the weekend and into the week. It will be gusty each afternoon but the winds settle down on Monday and will remain very light all week long. The temps will peak at around 70F on Tuesday. This looks to be an amazing week to get out and fly, or take part in any outdoor activity. Winter is over.

KB

High probability of SEVERE thunderstorms in Leesburg tomorrow.

A deep low pressure system is advancing on the Great Lakes region and a cold front will move through NOVA tomorrow night. In advance of this cold front will be a powerful squall line that will bring thunderstorms and wind to the area mid to late morning tomorrow. An isolated tornado is not out of the question. Wildfire potential is elevated. Somebody mentioned snow this weekend, it is not going to snow this weekend.

Strong, dry cold front coming through mid-morning today. Gusty winds this afternoon, and low to mid-20s tonight. Winters last gasp.