Center for Advanced Hindsight

Research Into What Might Have Been – or What Definitely, Most Likely Will Be At the Center for Advanced Hindsight, our vision is 20/12.

If there is one thing you think you know about hindsight, it’s that it is 20/20 – given the information that we have now, we can explain why things happened in the past. We are advanced both in aptitude and in our unique ability to foresee the future. The Center for Advanced Hindsight was founded on November 3rd, 1996 in Chicago, Illinois during the annual Judgment and Decision Making conference (

JDM). Its founders were inspired to initiate the Center by the simple, yet painful fact that all of their colleagues seemed to be affiliated with some wonderful-sounding institution and they felt left out. People around them were talking about CMR, SRI, DR, SDS, NSF, and over a nice Chicago pizza, they decided to start a center that would capture Science at its best. And thus was the birth of The Center for Advanced Hindsight (hereafter referred to as “CAH” or “the Center”). From the moment of its inception, it was obvious that the Center had to be focused on the ability of its initiating members and its immense research potential. In retrospect, the choice was obvious: Hindsight. And so, the Center was complete — and the founders looked at their work and said, “It is good.”

A “Random” (in the colloquial sense) Sample of Projects:

The Center is perpetually engaged in (almost) more projects than it can keep track of. The Center continuously seeks to expand the horizons of inquiry in looking backward into the obvious. Over the years, members have examined a wide range of research topics including prospect theory, cognitive dissonance, heuristic and biases, the “hot hand” effect, Samuelson’s paradox, the effects of emotions on judgment and decision-making, general behavioral economics and more, such as:

• Regret & Counterfactuals
• Anchoring (and other boating techniques)
• Time & Money; Time = Money
• Family Values. What is the value of family?
• Sleep deprivation and its impact on work (see family values)
• Why do people watch TV?
• The effects of beer and wine on creativity

Alas, when Professor Ariely vacated the premises of the MIT Medialab, he uprooted the CAH and replanted it in his new home at Duke University. Although the Southern atmosphere brought new influences and weather adjustments, the lab’s hindsight continued to bloom. What was once just an idea or a catchy name became a real-life science-obsessed laboratory. Some representative and anomalous projects currently festering:

• Health Marketing – conflicts of interest in the medical arena, and the propensity (or not) to get second opinions among patients.
• Health issues such as overeating and obesity, sexual health, health care
• Cheating behavior & morality, forgiveness
• Counterfeits & identity, self–signaling
• Pain
• Dating behavior
• Placebos, natural vs. synthetic remedies and medication
• Taxes, especially with regard to America’s mega-deficit
• Opportunity Cost (If I buy these shoes, how many lattés must I live without?)
• Consumption Vocabulary
• Eye Contact and Trust
• General Judgment & Decision Making, Consumer Behavior
• Wealth Distribution (perceived, real and ideal)
• Self-control devices and incentive systems
• Diagnostic labels
• Development of practical applications (for iphones, etc.) and programs to save the world

• And, as always, focusing on the dissemination of Science to the greater public. At the Center for Advanced Hindsight, we firmly believe that our research is inherently useful — but more so when it can be practically applied and shared with the general population. When academic papers are exclusively circulated within their own incestuous elite, their impact is severely limited. Therefore, it is an important goal of the CAH to make research accessible and relevant to the masses. Members of The Center:

The Center for Advanced Hindsight actively seeks to recruit new members with the right set of skills and an uncontained enthusiasm for science. There is no application process for the Center and qualified applicants are notified immediately after they have demonstrated the skills needed to become a member of the Center. At this point they are given the secret handshake and at last become a full-fledged member. The members of the Center are available for consulting and parties.

Advanced Review of My New Book: MISBELIEF

08/21/2023

Check out this advanced review of Dan Ariely's new book!

Advanced Review of My New Book: MISBELIEF David Pitt reviews my new book in this month's edition of Booklist. Misbelief: What Makes Rational People Believe Irrational Things. By Dan Ariely. Sept. 2023. 320p. Harper, $32 (9780063280427). 300. Social s...

04/25/2023

Details matter. Does the ability to customize a chatbot make the chat bot more likable? We did find that people made their chatbots more similar to themselves, but that didn’t mean they liked them more. Intrigued?

https://advanced-hindsight.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/staying_happy_healthy_vax.pdf =38

04/21/2023

The Duke University Center for Advanced Hindsight’s Health Team has a unique approach to research:

We believe that making an impact on health requires combining the rigor of academic research with the real-world impact of practice. In. our most recent report, we outline how our approach and behavioral lens can help us take care of our everyday health, including getting vaccinated.

Read our 2022 Health Report:

http://advanced-hindsight.com/staying_happy_healthy_vax

04/10/2023

Our very own Joseph Sherlock is teaching an open enrollment summer school on Behavioral Economics with Duke DCID. This is the last week to receive a 25% discount.

Sign up today!

Behavioral Economics - DCID Duke University's course Behavioral Economics for International Development provides practitioners with a powerful new tool for programming.

04/05/2023

Phoebe Murrell, master's student at Duke Sanford School of Public Policy and CAH research assistant, is looking for participants for her master's project. Click the link below to take her survey!

Feel free to contact her with any questions or concerns at [email protected]

https://duke.qualtrics.com/jfe/form/SV_06YsPJHSZ49zl6S

03/15/2023

Our Common Cents Lab was honored to participate in this crucial exploratory research with United Nations Capital Development Fund (UNCDF) focused on low-income women entrepreneurs in India.

Read more about CAH Behavioral Researchers Kahini Shah and Jiayu Zhao's work here:

UN Capital Development Fund (UNCDF) The UN Capital Development Fund makes public and private finance work for the poor in the world’s 46 least developed countries (LDCs). UNCDF offers “last mile” finance models that unlock public and private resources, especially at the domestic level, to reduce poverty and support local economi...

How to Depolarize Ourselves: Communication and Understanding Across Cultures

03/08/2023

CAH Researchers Shaye-Ann Hopkins and Shanta Ricks write for BehavioralEconomics.com about communicating across cultures in order to reduce polarization.

"If we can improve how we experience others, we can reduce division through awareness, understanding, and communication."

https://www.behavioraleconomics.com/how-to-depolarize-ourselves-communication-and-understanding-across-cultures/

How to Depolarize Ourselves: Communication and Understanding Across Cultures The world is becoming increasingly polarized, as is seen through evidence of “us” versus “them” mindsets. Divisions have evolved into partisanship across groups, highlighting the need to understand how we differ culturally and across groups, why we are becoming more polarized, and how we can...

The Diverse Methodologies of Black Psychology - Center for Advanced Hindsight

02/28/2023

The Diverse Methodologies of Black Psychology by Judson Bonick and Kahini Shah

"In our final Black History Month blog post, the Center for Advanced Hindsight continues its celebration of the important work of Black Psychology and the influential individuals who have contributed to this field."

The Diverse Methodologies of Black Psychology - Center for Advanced Hindsight Author: Judson Bonick Editor: Kahini Shah In our final Black History Month blog post, the Center for Advanced Hindsight continues its celebration of the important work of Black Psychology and the influential individuals who...

02/21/2023

🚲Fresh Start Effect in New Movers A Pilot to Reduce SOV Trip🚌

By Nina Bartmann, Shaye-Ann Hopkins, and Caylin Luebeck. Click below to read the full report!

https://advanced-hindsight.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/CAH-Fresh-Start-Effect-Report.pdf

William Cross’ Reform School of Black Psychology - Center for Advanced Hindsight

02/20/2023

CAH Researcher Shaye-Ann Hopkins writes about Dr. William Cross in this week’s Black History Month blog post!

"Cross’ contributions have inspired countless research studies on identity development and racial identity over the years"

William Cross’ Reform School of Black Psychology - Center for Advanced Hindsight Author: Shaye-Ann Hopkins Editor: Maximiliano Bernal Temores In this week’s Black History Month blog post, the Center for Advanced Hindsight continues to share the history and contributions of Black psychology. In our first post,...

The Radical Black Psychology of Dr. Kobi K. K. Kambon - Center for Advanced Hindsight

02/13/2023

The Radical Black Psychology of Dr. Kobi K. K. Kambon by Jenna Clark

The Radical Black Psychology of Dr. Kobi K. K. Kambon - Center for Advanced Hindsight In the early 1970s, the newly-formed Association of Black Psychologists had quite a job in front of them. Decades of research conducted by the primarily White and Eurocentric scientific establishment had conceptualized any differences...

01/27/2023

Curious to see how behavioral science led to $25,000 in retirement savings? Check out our case study on how adding choice to defaults in a retirement savings account initiates better financial decision making.

https://case-studies.advanced-hindsight.com/case-studies/7kpdljRk/adding-choice-to-defaults-in-a-retirement-savings

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