Economics for Health - EfH

In 🇵🇰, government tax revenue lost from illicit ******es is substantial, but much lower than ***co industry estimates 🔎

Our colleagues at Social Policy and Development Centre estimate:

- 34% of consumption (or 18.3 billion sticks) are illicit, including 7.2 billion sticks produced locally, and
- revenue lost from illicit trade amounts to Rs 115.6 billion, not Rs 400 billion as claimed by industry.

Learn about evidence-based policy recommendations to reduce the illicit market, while continuing to raise ***co taxes 👇

https://www.economicsforhealth.org/research/the-revenue-loss-due-to-illicit-cigarette-trade-in-pakistan/

Now available on Economics for Health - EfH... the 4️⃣th in 🌏

In 2024, 🇻🇳 received only 0.88 points out of 5 on its tax policies, with significant room for improvement in each component of the score.

Learn more about how Viet Nam compares to 170 countries & the policy recommendations from experts 👇

https://www.economicsforhealth.org/uploads/scorecards/2024/Cigarette-Tax-Scorecard-4th-Edition_VN_v3-0.pdf

In 🇮🇩, simplifying hand-rolled tax structure & annual cigarette tax increases would raise tax revenue & improve public health 📈

From 2025 to 2027, CISDI estimates that this reform would:

- reduce cigarette consumption 16%,
- increase total tax revenues 26%, and
- decrease adult smoking prevalence 2%, averting >292,000 premature deaths.

Learn about the potential impact of 3️⃣ tax scenarios compared to the status quo 👇

https://www.economicsforhealth.org/research/raising-and-simplifying-the-cigarette-excise-tax-in-indonesia-simulated-revenue-gains-and-public-health-benefits/

A 🆕 policy paper from KIPPRA examines trends in production, consumption, employment, & revenues in 🇰🇪

The find:

📊 Beer & spirits make up the majority of alcohol consumption, with a recent shift towards spirits.
🔎 The alcohol industry makes up only 0.20% of total employment.
📉 Total alcohol excise revenue slightly declined b/w 2016/17 & 2022/23.

Learn more about the opportunities for to strengthen tax policy & regulations 👇

https://www.economicsforhealth.org/research/analysis-of-the-alcoholic-beverages-sector-in-kenya/

Between 2010 & 2024, ******es remained very affordable in 🇮🇩 despite small, periodic ***co tax increases 🔎

at CISDI find that reducing affordability by 10% would decrease demand by ~8️⃣%, including:

- 12% in low-income households and
- 6% in middle-income households.

Learn more about recommendations to significantly raise cigarette prices & effectively reduce consumption 👇

https://www.economicsforhealth.org/research/cigarette-affordability-in-indonesia-recent-trends-and-elasticity

Effective policies across can significantly reduce illicit ***co trade, while governments continue to increase taxes & raise additional revenue 🌍

A 🆕 brief from Smoke Free Partnership & Economics for Health - EfH highlights 2️⃣ examples of success:

🇲🇪 In , the share of illicit consumption decreased from ~50% in 2019 to ~25% in 2022, and excise tax revenue increased from €46.3 million to €119.2 million b/w 2019 & 2024 📈

🇧🇦 In , the share of illicit consumption decreased from ~32% in 2019 to ~8% in 2025, and excise tax revenue increased from €443.4 million to €583.4 million b/w 2019 & 2024 📈

Learn more about the lessons learned & implications for the To***co Tax Directive 👇

https://www.economicsforhealth.org/research/mitigating-illicit-trade-success-in-montenegro-and-bosnia-and-herzegovina/

In the 🇪🇺, the compromise text of the ***co Tax Directive would be much less effective than the European Commission proposal 📉

Under the compromise text, UPCT Universidad Politécnica de Cartagena finds that:

- very few Member States would need to raise their minimum tax in 2028 & the required adjustment would be much smaller, and
- the minimum tax would not keep up with higher inflation rates.

Learn more about the weaknesses of the compromise text under Cypriot Presidency & recommendations for decision makers 👇

https://www.economicsforhealth.org/research/the-eu-council-compromise-text-under-the-cypriot-presidency-lowers-both-the-real-value-and-the-binding-force-of-the-eu-tax-floor-policy-brief/

In 🇸🇰, & emerging ****ne product sales are increasing, with the largest uptick in e-ci******es & e-liquid 🔎

🆕 from Ekonomický ústav SAV finds that:

- consumers perceive e-ci******es, HTPs, & ****ne pouches as more attractive in Slovakia compared to the EU average, yet
- consumers support flavor bans & other regulations.

Among youth, use is also rising, with initiation from ages 13 to 16 & higher rates among girls than boys 📊

Learn more about these findings & recommendations for :

https://www.economicsforhealth.org/research/heated-to***co-products-and-emerging-ni****ne-product-use-in-slovakia/

Now live on Economics for Health - EfH... country-specific outlining the findings from the 4️⃣th edition of the 📚

Check out the country profiles for 170+ countries & fact sheets for:

🇦🇱 Albania
🇧🇦 Bosnia & Herzegovina
🇧🇷 Brazil
🇪🇬 Egypt
🇮🇩 Indonesia
🇯🇴 Jordan
🇲🇪 Montenegro
🇲🇰 North Macedonia
🇵🇰 Pakistan
🇵🇾 Paraguay
🇸🇰 Slovakia
🇸🇷 Suriname

Stay tuned for more releases coming soon & reach out if you would like to request a fact sheet for your country 🔎

https://www.economicsforhealth.org/cigarette-tax-scorecard/

Earlier this month, 3️⃣ Economics for Health - EfH team members participated in 📚

The researchers presented 🆕 evidence on:

- the association between border length & illicit trade,
- online delivery sales laws and their effect on youth **ng, &
- the association between recreational retail rollout and substance use intensity.

Thank you to Society for Research on Ni****ne and To***co for the opportunity to share our findings with colleagues & learn about their endeavors!

Read more in our 👇
https://www.economicsforhealth.org/blog/economics-for-health-presents-new-research-on-illicit-to***co-e-ci******es-and-cannabis-retail-at-srnt-2026/

An alternate ***co tax system in 🇧🇩 would improve & raise tax revenues in FY 2026-27 📈

Specifically, 🆕 estimates that this proposal would:

1️⃣. encourage nearly 0.5 million adults to quit smoking & prevent more than 372,000 youth from initiating use, saving over 371,700 lives in the long-term; &
2️⃣. generate more than BDT 85,000 crore in ***co tax revenue, BDT 44,000 crore more than the previous fiscal year.

Learn more from experts at Campaign for To***co-Free Kids, Vital Strategies, World Health Organization (WHO), & Economics for Health - EfH 👇

https://www.economicsforhealth.org/research/raising-to***co-taxes-in-fy-2026-2027-protecting-health-and-financing-government-reform/