Most people assume they understand the systems they use every day. But as Rose McDermott (The Watson School of International and Public Affairs at Brown University) explains, confidence is often misplaced.
Using a system is not the same as understanding it. This gap becomes especially important in national security, where policymakers must make decisions about technologies like AI, hypersonic weapons, and WMDs. When leaders rely on surface-level familiarity, they tend to underestimate how complex these systems are—and how long it takes to develop and deploy them effectively. The result is flawed planning and unrealistic expectations. McDermott’s argument is a reminder that real understanding requires deeper engagement with how systems actually work—not just how they are used.
Listen to the full conversation:
https://tnsr.org/2026/04/psychological-biases-in-the-era-of-nuclear-weapons-and-ai/
Texas National Security Review
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Launched in 2017 by The University of Texas System, the Texas National Security Review is a journal committed to excellence, scholarly rigor, and big ideas.
We are also the home of the "Horns of a Dilemma" podcast. An inter-disciplinary, policy-relevant journal on national and international security affairs, brought to you by The University of Texas at Austin.
What is the true cost of overestimating technological capabilities?
In this video clip from our podcast, Cameron Tracy discusses the Reagan administration's Strategic Defense Initiative. He explains how the billions spent on unrealized directed energy systems created a massive opportunity cost.
Tracy argues that every dollar spent on a weapon that never materializes is a dollar not spent on reliable, near-term solutions. As we see renewed interest in these same concepts four decades later, he challenges defense planners to learn from past overestimations.
Watch the clip and read the full article:https://tnsr.org/2026/04/beyond-the-hype-the-reality-of-precision-strike-weapons-in-ukraine
UC Berkeley's Goldman School of Public Policy
04/29/2026
Are we predicting the future of warfare all wrong? On our latest episode of "Horns of a Dilemma," Cameron Tracy breaks down his recent article analyzing the tactical and discursive effects of new precision-strike weapons in the Russo-Ukrainian War.
He argues that analysts are frequently drawn to unrepresentative extremes, mistakenly expecting military revolutions around every corner. Instead, Tracy demonstrates how weapons like glide bombs and hypersonic missiles rapidly undergo a process of "normalization" once deployed. Ultimately, he concludes that adapting to technological surprise is often far more vital than attempting to anticipate it.
Read the article and listen to our full discussion here:
https://tnsr.org/2026/04/beyond-the-hype-the-reality-of-precision-strike-weapons-in-ukraine
UC Berkeley's Goldman School of Public Policy
Why did Putin think the war in Ukraine would be over in three days?
In this clip, Rose McDermott (The Watson School of International and Public Affairs at Brown University) breaks down the psychological and structural flaws of personalist regimes. When loyalty is valued more than competence, leaders are often insulated from reality by the very people meant to advise them.
04/17/2026
Modern technology has outpaced human evolution. In the latest episode of our podcast, Rose McDermott (The Watson School of International and Public Affairs at Brown University) explains why "gut feelings" and cognitive shortcuts are particularly dangerous for nuclear-armed leaders.
The discussion dives into the four key biases—overconfidence, the planning fallacy, the illusion of validity, and the prominence effect—that McDermott argues could undermine strategic stability. We also examine the unique risks posed by personalist regimes in the digital age.
04/13/2026
Our Strategic Stability Special Issue is now available in its entirety on our website. We have gathered leading experts to interrogate the future of deterrence, the impact of AI and cyber operations, and the psychological dimensions of modern statecraft. From re-evaluating the legacy of Thomas Schelling to analyzing the normalization of precision-strike weapons in Ukraine, these essays provide a comprehensive look at the challenges facing the international order.
Visit TNSR.org to read the full issue.
In a nuclear crisis, leaders often face intense pressure to act quickly, sometimes with incomplete information. But what if emerging technologies could change that dynamic?
Harold Trinkunas (Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies )explores how advances in sensing, data processing, and analytical tools might provide earlier and more accurate information to decision-makers. His argument points to a key possibility: that these technologies could extend decision timelines, allowing leaders to slow down, assess the situation more carefully, and make more deliberate choices. This shift could have major implications for nuclear stability, potentially reducing the likelihood of miscalculation in high-stakes moments. At the same time, it raises important questions about how these systems will be used in practice and whether they will truly ease, or instead intensify, decision pressure.
Listen to the full episode at: https://tnsr.org/2026/03/strategic-stability-in-a-rapidly-changing-world/
04/08/2026
Is technological optimism a blind spot for US defense? In a new contribution to our Strategic Stability Roundtable, Herbert S. Lin (Center for International Security and Cooperation (CISAC) and Hoover Institution) examines why psychological biases and organizational pressures lead to unrealistic expectations for emerging military tools. He explores how a "can-do" ethos can sometimes distort objective assessment.
04/06/2026
We are pleased to feature Herbert S. Lin’s (Center for International Security and Cooperation (CISAC) and Hoover Institution) latest work to conclude our Strategic Stability Roundtable. He examines the "unreasonable optimism" often found in U.S. military technology acquisitions, arguing that psychological biases and organizational interests often distort the assessment of innovation.
04/04/2026
Does the use of precision-strike weapons in Ukraine signal a fundamental shift in how wars are fought?
In our latest Roundtable contribution, Cameron L. Tracy examines the Russo-Ukrainian War to argue that military technologies are typically incorporated into existing systems rather than disrupting them. We invite you to explore this deep dive into why practices of warfare remain such durable constructions in the face of new tech.
UC Berkeley's Goldman School of Public Policy
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