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18/04/2026

Savage ‘honour’

PATRIARCHAL (پدرانہ نظام سے متعلق) brutality (ظلم و بربریت), perpetrated (انجام دی گئی) by society (معاشرہ) and families (خاندان), remains (برقرار ہے) rampant (عام) in the country. Murder (قتل) in the name of honour (غیرت) persists (جاری رہتا ہے) because our society (معاشرہ) is unwilling (آمادہ نہیں) to free (آزاد کرنا) its women (خواتین). Two chilling (خوفناک) incidents (واقعات) of such killings (قتل) recently (حال ہی میں) took place (پیش آئے) in Khairpur (خیرپور) and Taxila (ٹیکسلا). A 19-year-old girl (لڑکی), accused (الزام لگایا گیا) of having ‘illicit (غیر قانونی/ناجائز) relations (تعلقات)’, was shot dead (گولی مار کر ہلاک کر دیا گیا) in the presence (موجودگی) of the police (پولیس) and villagers (دیہاتی) in Khairpur (خیرپور). The FIR (پہلی معلوماتی رپورٹ) states (بتاتی ہے) that three men (آدمی) opened fire (فائرنگ کی) and fled (فرار ہو گئے) the scene (موقع); she sustained (لگی) a fatal (مہلک) bullet (گولی) in the chest (سینہ). While some arrests (گرفتاریاں) followed (ہوئیں), the failure (ناکامی) of police (پولیس) to prevent (روکنا) the crime (جرم) shows (ظاہر کرتا ہے) how lax (سست) law enforcement (قانون نافذ کرنے والا نظام) can be, especially (خاص طور پر) in an anti-women (خواتین مخالف) setting (ماحول). In Taxila (ٹیکسلا), another man (آدمی) slaughtered (ذبح کر دیا) his sister (بہن), brother-in-law (بہنوئی) and sister-in-law (سالہ/بھابھی). Initial (ابتدائی) investigations (تحقیقات) say he was incensed (غصے میں تھا) over his 23-year-old sister-in-law (سالہ) tying the knot (شادی کرنا) without the blessings (دعائیں/رضامندی) of her family (خاندان).

Hostile (مخالفانہ) attitudes (رویہ) run deep (گہرے ہیں). The question (سوال) is: are our laws (قوانین) enough of a deterrent (روکنے والا ذریعہ) considering (مدنظر رکھتے ہوئے) that criminals (مجرم) are rarely (ش*ذ و نادر) convicted (سزا یافتہ)? A disturbing (پریشان کن) spike (اضافہ) in the tribal (قبائلی) custom (رسم) in Sindh (سندھ) was seen (دیکھا گیا) last year — 105 females (خواتین) were lost (ہلاک ہوئیں) to karo kari (کاروکاری). Police records (ریکارڈ) showed (ظاہر کیا) that most (زیادہ تر) of the perpetrators (جرم کرنے والے) were family members (خاندان کے افراد). HRCP (ہیومن رائٹس کمیشن آف پاکستان) puts (بتاتا ہے) the toll (تعداد) for ‘honour killings’ (غیرت کے نام پر قتل) in 2025 at much higher (زیادہ) than the 226 in 2023. Numbers (اعداد و شمار) soar (بڑھ جاتے ہیں) even when most cases (کیسز) go unreported (رپورٹ نہیں ہوتے), and despite (کے باوجود) the amendments (ترامیم) to the law (قانون) in 2016 to prevent (روکنے کے لیے) an easy escape (آسان بچاؤ) for murderers (قاتل) who often (اکثر) walk free (آزاد گھومتے ہیں) due to negligible (نہ ہونے کے برابر) law enforcement (قانون نافذ کرنا) and complicit (ملوث) police officers (پولیس اہلکار). Ending (ختم کرنا) this curse (لعنت) requires (ضرورت ہے) more than simply (صرف) arresting (گرفتار کرنا) the perpetrators (مجرم). Urgent (فوری) corrective (اصلاحی) action (کارروائی) taken (کی گئی) by an empowered (بااختیار) and modernised (جدید) police force (پولیس فورس), together with (کے ساتھ) widespread (وسیع پیمانے پر) access (رسائی) to education (تعلیم) and awareness (آگاہی), can strip (ختم کرنا) the menace (خطرہ) of all social sanction (سماجی حمایت). Activists (سماجی کارکن) believe (یقین رکھتے ہیں) that ‘karo kari (کاروکاری) is an industry (صنعت)’ — sustained (برقرار رکھی گئی) by blood money (خون بہا) and the exchange (تبادلہ) of women (خواتین) through jirgas (جرگے). In short (مختصراً), political expediency (سیاسی مصلحت) and illegal (غیر قانونی) jirgas (جرگے) that wield (استعمال کرتے ہیں) a brutal (سخت) hold (کنٹرول) over rural (دیہی) populations (آبادی) are the prime (اہم) culprits (ذمہ دار) behind the prevalence (پھیلاؤ) of misogynistic (خواتین دشمن) customs (رسومات).

Editorial
Published in Dawn, April 18th, 2026
Dawn

Disclaimer:
The meanings of difficult words provided in this article are intended solely to help followers better understand the content. While every effort has been made to ensure accuracy, any errors or misunderstandings are unintentional. If any mistake is found, we sincerely apologize and request your kind pardon.

18/04/2026

The real threat

IN the run-up (پیشگی مرحلہ) to the war (جنگ) on Iran (ایران), as well as over the past few days (گزشتہ چند دنوں میں), American officials (امریکی حکام), from the president (صدر) on down (سے لے کر نچلی سطح تک), have been framing (پیش کر رہے ہیں) Iran (ایران) as a threat (خطرہ) to the region (خطہ). At times (بعض اوقات), Tehran’s (تہران کا) nuclear programme (ایٹمی پروگرام) is flagged (نمایاں کیا جاتا ہے) as a grave (سنگین) danger (خطرہ) to world peace (عالمی امن), at other times (دوسرے مواقع پر), its ballistic missiles (بیلسٹک میزائل) are highlighted (اجاگر کیے جاتے ہیں). Tehran’s (تہران کا) support (حمایت) for what it views (جسے یہ سمجھتا ہے) as the ‘Axis of Resistance’ (مزاحمتی محور) — Hezbollah (حزب اللہ), Hamas (حماس), the Houthis (حوثی), and Iraq’s Hashd as-Shaabi (عراق کی حشد الشعبی) — is also cited (ذکر کیا جاتا ہے) as a disruptive (عدم استحکام پیدا کرنے والا) influence (اثر) in the region (خطہ). Thrown in for good measure (مزید شامل کیا جاتا ہے) is criticism (تنقید) of Iran’s (ایران کی) suppression (دباؤ) of internal dissent (اندرونی اختلاف), with American (امریکی) and Israeli (اسرائیلی) officials (حکام) promising (وعدہ کرتے ہوئے) to come to the ‘help’ (مدد) of the Iranian people (ایرانی عوام). One must ask (سوال کرنا چاہیے) if bombing (بمباری کرنا) schools (اسکول), universities (جامعات) and public infrastructure (عوامی ڈھانچہ), and killing (قتل کرنا) thousands (ہزاروں) of Iranian civilians (شہریوں) in the process (اس عمل میں), is part of this ‘help’ (مدد). Arguably (دلیل کے طور پر), Washington (واشنگٹن) and Tel Aviv (تل ابیب) have manufactured (بنا لیا ہے) a phantom (فرضی) threat (خطرہ). While Tehran (تہران) does have territorial (علاقائی) and ideological (نظریاتی) disputes (تنازعات) and differences (اختلافات) with some of its Arab neighbours (عرب ہمسایہ ممالک), the biggest threat (سب سے بڑا خطرہ) to Middle East (مشرق وسطیٰ) peace (امن) is Israel (اسرائیل), which has been murdering (قتل کر رہا ہے) civilians (شہریوں) and occupying (قبضہ کر رہا ہے) territories (علاقے) not its own (اپنے نہیں) with impunity (بلا سزا) for decades (دہائیوں) now. If any regional (علاقائی) state (ریاست) is to be reined in (قابو کیا جانا چاہیے), it is Israel (اسرائیل).

Currently (فی الحال), Israel (اسرائیل) illegally (غیر قانونی طور پر) occupies (قبضہ کیے ہوئے ہے) territory (علاقہ) in Palestine (فلسطین), Lebanon (لبنان) and Syria (شام). Therefore (لہٰذا), the Arab (عرب) and Muslim (مسلم) world (دنیا), as well as the international community (بین الاقوامی برادری), must focus (توجہ مرکوز کرے) on the Israeli threat (اسرائیلی خطرہ) rather than (بجائے اس کے) any real (حقیقی) or imagined (خیالی) danger (خطرہ) from Iran (ایران). In the occupied (مقبوضہ) territories (علاقوں), Tel Aviv (تل ابیب) has carried out (انجام دیا ہے) a genocidal (نسل کشی پر مبنی) war (جنگ) in Gaza (غزہ), while conditions (حالات) in the West Bank (مغربی کنارہ) are suffocating (گھٹن والے). It should be remembered (یاد رکھا جانا چاہیے) that the October 2023 Hamas (حماس) attacks (حملے) were sparked (بھڑک اٹھے) by the inhuman (غیر انسانی) Israeli (اسرائیلی) siege (محاصرہ) of Gaza (غزہ). Meanwhile (اسی دوران) in Syria (شام), taking advantage (فائدہ اٹھاتے ہوئے) of the chaos (افراتفری) after the fall (زوال) of Bashar al-Assad’s (بشار الاسد کی) regime (حکومت), the Zionist (صیہونی) state (ریاست) has increased (بڑھا لیا ہے) the area (علاقہ) it occupies (قبضہ کیے ہوئے ہے) manifold (کئی گنا), in addition (اضافہ کے طور پر) to the Golan Heights (گولان کی پہاڑیاں). And while a ceasefire (جنگ بندی) has been reached (ہو چکی ہے) in Lebanon (لبنان), it is unlikely (غیر ممکن لگتا ہے) Israel (اسرائیل) will vacate (خالی کرے گا) the territory (علاقہ) it has occupied (قبضہ کیا ہوا ہے) in the south (جنوب) of the country (ملک). In fact (درحقیقت), senior (سینئر) Israeli (اسرائیلی) officials (حکام) have spoken (بات کی ہے) of permanently (مستقل طور پر) annexing (ضم کرنے) these Arab (عرب) territories (علاقوں). These are the building blocks (بنیادی عناصر) of the ‘Greater Israel’ (بڑا اسرائیل) scheme (منصوبہ). Therefore (لہٰذا), if the US (امریکہ) is serious (سنجیدہ) about long-term (طویل مدتی) Middle East (مشرق وسطیٰ) calm (امن), instead of amplifying (بڑھا چڑھا کر پیش کرنا) the ‘Iranian threat’ (ایرانی خطرہ), Washington (واشنگٹن) must examine (جائزہ لینا چاہیے) the danger (خطرہ) Israel (اسرائیل) poses (پیش کرتا ہے) to regional (علاقائی) and global (عالمی) peace (امن).

Editorial
Published in Dawn, April 18th, 2026
Dawn

Disclaimer:
The meanings of difficult words provided in this article are intended solely to help followers better understand the content. While every effort has been made to ensure accuracy, any errors or misunderstandings are unintentional. If any mistake is found, we sincerely apologize and request your kind pardon.

18/04/2026

Power outages

AS summer (گرمیوں) approaches (قریب آتا ہے), households (گھرانے) and industries (صنعتیں) across the country are again facing prolonged (طویل) power outages (بجلی کی بندش) as night-time (رات کے وقت) electricity demand (طلب), driven (چلائی گئی) by cooling (ٹھنڈک) needs, far exceeds (زیادہ ہو جاتی ہے) the available (دستیاب) supply (فراہمی). To contain (قابو میں رکھنے کے لیے) the power shortages (بجلی کی کمی), the government is running its costly (مہنگے) furnace oil-based (فرنس آئل سے چلنے والے) power plants (بجلی گھر) at full capacity (مکمل صلاحیت) and delaying (تاخیر کرنا) maintenance (مرمت) of its nuclear (ایٹمی) facilities (تنصیبات). The Middle East (مشرق وسطیٰ) crisis (بحران) and LNG (مائع قدرتی گیس) supply disruptions (فراہمی میں رکاوٹیں) are chiefly (بنیادی طور پر) to blame (ذمہ دار) for the shortage (کمی), which has been exacerbated (مزید خراب کیا گیا) by reduced (کم) hydropower (پن بجلی) availability (دستیابی) as rainfall (بارش) and lower irrigation (آبپاشی) demand (طلب) have limited (محدود کیا ہے) the release (اخراج) of water from reservoirs (ڈیموں). The power minister (وزیر توانائی) says that LNG-fired (ایل این جی سے چلنے والے) plants, with an approximate (تقریباً) capacity (صلاحیت) of 6,000 MW, are producing (پیدا کر رہے ہیں) only around 500 MW due to gas shortages (گیس کی کمی), while hydropower output (پیداوار) has fallen (کم ہو گئی ہے) to about 1,600 MW — roughly (تقریباً) half (آدھا) the level (سطح) of last April. With Qatar (قطر) declaring (اعلان کرنا) force majeure (غیر معمولی حالات), after nearly (تقریباً) 17pc (فیصد) of its gas production (پیداوار) went offline (بند ہو گئی) last month, following (کے بعد) Iran’s missile (میزائل) strikes (حملے) on its gas fields (گیس کے میدان), prolonged (طویل) power outages (بجلی کی بندش) were anticipated (متوقع تھیں) once summer (گرمیوں) kicked in (شروع ہوئیں). The petroleum minister (وزیر پٹرولیم) says the country intends (ارادہ رکھتا ہے) to purchase (خریدنا) expensive (مہنگی) spot LNG cargoes (فوری ایل این جی کارگو) to offset (تلافی کرنا) the supply crunch (فراہمی کا بحران) from Qatar, but the move (اقدام) will strain (دباؤ ڈالنا) the finances (مالی وسائل) of both government and consumers (صارفین).

Most urban (شہری) areas (علاقے) have been experiencing (سامنا کر رہے ہیں) forced (مجبوری) load-shedding (بجلی کی بندش) of up to six hours a day as the night-time (رات کے وقت) peak (زیادہ) supply gap (فراہم اور طلب میں فرق) widens (بڑھ جاتا ہے) to nearly (تقریباً) 4,000 MW. Experts (ماہرین) warn (خبردار کرتے ہیں) that outages (بندشیں) are likely (امکان ہے) to lengthen (طویل ہونا), with peak (زیادہ) night-time demand (طلب) surging (تیزی سے بڑھنا) from 20,000 MW to 28,000-30,000 MW. Consumers (صارفین) may also see their monthly (ماہانہ) power bills (بل) spike (اچانک بڑھنا). The current (موجودہ) crisis (بحران) has once again underscored (واضح کیا ہے) the structural (ساختی) vulnerability (کمزوری) of our power sector (بجلی کا شعبہ) to external (بیرونی) geopolitical (جغرافیائی سیاسی) shocks (جھٹکے) as a result of its heavy reliance (انحصار) on imported (درآمد شدہ) fossil fuels (فوسل ایندھن). Frequent (بار بار) price volatility (قیمتوں میں اتار چڑھاؤ) in global (عالمی) energy markets (توانائی کی منڈیاں), compounded (مزید خراب کیا گیا) this time by supply disruptions (فراہمی میں رکاوٹیں), demonstrates (ظاہر کرتا ہے) the need (ضرورت) to shift (منتقل ہونا) towards solar energy (شمسی توانائی) as a viable (قابل عمل) medium- to long-term (درمیانی اور طویل مدتی) solution (حل) to Pakistan’s energy woes (توانائی کے مسائل).

That said, without rapid (تیز) and large-scale (بڑے پیمانے پر) adoption (اپنانا) of battery storage (بیٹری ذخیرہ) solutions (حل), such a transition (منتقلی) will only worsen (مزید خراب کرنا) structural (ساختی) weaknesses (کمزوریاں). Even though rooftop (چھت پر لگے) solar (شمسی) has added (اضافہ کیا ہے) an estimated (تخمینہ شدہ) 18,000 MW in the last eight years, it has cut (کم کیا ہے) daytime (دن کے وقت) grid demand (بجلی کی طلب) and shifted (منتقل کیا ہے) shortages (کمی) to evening (شام) peaks (زیادہ اوقات) when solar generation (پیداوار) falls (کم ہو جاتی ہے) and LNG-fired (ایل این جی سے چلنے والے) plants are needed (ضروری ہوتے ہیں). The transition (منتقلی) must then be complemented (مکمل کیا جانا چاہیے) by large-scale (بڑے پیمانے پر) adoption (اپنانا) of battery storage systems (بیٹری ذخیرہ نظام). However (تاہم), this is easier said than done (کہنا آسان ہے کرنا مشکل). While the predictable (متوقع) long-term (طویل مدتی) savings (بچت) and broader (وسیع تر) economic (معاشی) benefits (فوائد) of solar power (شمسی توانائی) are attractive (پرکشش) to households (گھرانے), farmers (کسان) and businesses (کاروبار) facing (سامنا کرتے ہوئے) high tariffs (زیادہ نرخ) and unreliable (غیر قابل اعتماد) grid supply (بجلی کی فراہمی), the adoption (اپنانا) of battery storage systems (بیٹری نظام) is far less straightforward (اتنا آسان نہیں), chiefly (بنیادی طور پر) due to high upfront costs (ابتدائی زیادہ اخراجات). The government could facilitate (آسان بنانا) the adoption (اپنانا) of battery storage systems (بیٹری نظام) by providing (فراہم کرنا) access (رسائی) to cheaper (سستی) financing (مالی معاونت) and removing (ختم کرنا) taxes (ٹیکس) on imports (درآمدات) of the technology (ٹیکنالوجی).

Editorial
Published in Dawn, April 18th, 2026

Disclaimer:
The meanings of difficult words provided in this article are intended solely to help followers better understand the content. While every effort has been made to ensure accuracy, any errors or misunderstandings are unintentional. If any mistake is found, we sincerely apologize and request your kind pardon.

16/04/2026

Paper oil

AN interesting (دلچسپ) thing (چیز) is happening (ہو رہی ہے) in the oil markets (تیل کی منڈیوں) that has not received (حاصل کی) enough (کافی) media attention (میڈیا توجہ). Given (مدنظر رکھتے ہوئے) the prolonged (طویل) closure (بندش) of the Strait of Hormuz (آبنائے ہرمز) and the severe (شدید) supply-side crisis (رسد کا بحران) that has hit (متاثر کیا) global (عالمی) oil markets, there should by now have been a spiralling (تیزی سے بڑھتی ہوئی) rise (اضافہ) in the price (قیمت) of oil. But instead (اس کے بجائے), we see it rise slightly (تھوڑا سا) above $100 and then drop (گرنا) below. Sometimes (کبھی کبھار) this follows (پیروی کرتا ہے) the headlines (سرخیاں). But overall (مجموعی طور پر), a mystery (معمہ) is developing (بن رہا ہے) around why oil prices are not seeing massive (بہت زیادہ) rises these days, even as more and more countries announce (اعلان کرتے ہیں) releases (اجراء) from their strategic (حکمت عملی سے متعلق) petroleum reserves (تیل کے ذخائر) (SPR), which is a sure sign (واضح علامت) that physical shortages (حقیقی کمی) of oil are landing (پیش آ رہی ہیں) around the world.

One answer (جواب) doing the rounds (گردش میں) among oil analysts (ماہرین) is the idea (خیال) of ‘paper oil’. The argument (دلیل) is that the US Treasury (امریکی خزانہ) is actively (فعال طور پر) manipulating (ہیرا پھیری کرنا) the price of oil by selling (بیچنا) massive quantities (بڑی مقدار) in the futures market (مستقبل کی منڈی). This helps (مدد کرتا ہے) keep (برقرار رکھنا) the price of oil down (کم) in the present (موجودہ وقت). A Reuters story (خبر) published (شائع ہوئی) on March 5, the first week (پہلا ہفتہ) of the war, kicked off (شروع کیں) rumours (افواہیں) that this might be happening. “The US Treasury Department (محکمہ خزانہ) is expected (توقع ہے) to announce measures (اقدامات) as soon as Thursday aimed at (نشانہ بناتے ہوئے) combating (مقابلہ کرنا) rising (بڑھتی ہوئی) energy prices (توانائی کی قیمتیں), including (بشمول) potential (ممکنہ) action involving (شامل کرتے ہوئے) the oil futures market”, read (لکھا تھا) the opening sentence (ابتدائی جملہ) of the story, quoting (حوالہ دیتے ہوئے) a senior (سینئر) White House official (اہلکار). Brent (برینٹ) had jumped (اچھل گیا تھا) to $85 at the time, and the IRGC (ایرانی پاسداران انقلاب) had announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz just three days earlier. To comprehend (سمجھنے کے لیے) how this works, it is necessary (ضروری) to understand (سمجھنا) a couple of things about how oil markets function (کام کرتے ہیں).

First (پہلا), there is not a single price in oil markets. There are various (مختلف) benchmark (معیاری) prices of crude (خام) oil, like Brent, Dubai Light or West Texas Intermediate (ویسٹ ٹیکساس انٹرمیڈیٹ). These refer (اشارہ کرتے ہیں) to the price of crude oil in a specific (مخصوص) market. WTI is mostly (زیادہ تر) for the Americas (امریکہ), Brent for Europe (یورپ) and Dubai Light for Asia (ایشیا). Next up (اگلا مرحلہ) are oil products (تیل کی مصنوعات) like petrol (پٹرول), diesel (ڈیزل) and jet fuel (جہاز کا ایندھن) that have their own (اپنی) prices. And then, there are petroleum products (تیل کی مصنوعات) like naphtha (نیفتھا) or LPG (ایل پی جی) that have separate (علیحدہ) prices too. Finally (آخر میں), there are what are called (کہلاتے ہیں) ‘futures markets’, where you can buy (خرید سکتے ہیں) oil today (آج) for delivery (فراہمی) at a future date (مستقبل کی تاریخ).

Under normal conditions (عام حالات میں), all these prices will move (چلیں گے) closely (قریب قریب) with each other since (کیونکہ) they are tied (جڑے ہوئے ہیں). When the price of crude rises, the price of petrol and diesel will rise more or less correspondingly (اسی کے مطابق). The cap (حد) on these is the futures price. If crude oil for delivery in June 2026 is available (دستیاب ہے) for a particular (خاص) price, the present-day (موجودہ) price will not go too far above that.

Oil watchers (مشاہدہ کرنے والے) are now wondering aloud (کھل کر سوچ رہے ہیں) whether active (فعال) oil market manipulation (ہیرا پھیری) has begun (شروع ہو گئی ہے).

What the Reuters story was trying (کوشش کر رہی تھی) to say was that someone in the administration (انتظامیہ) figured out (سمجھ لیا) that one way (ایک طریقہ) to manipulate oil prices, and keep them down (کم رکھنا) in the short term (قلیل مدت) while the war lasted (چلتی رہی), was for the US government to become (بن جائے) a massive seller (بڑا فروخت کنندہ) of oil in the futures market at a lower price (کم قیمت) than what the market is generating (پیدا کر رہی ہے). By that time (اس وقت تک) the settlement date (ادائیگی کی تاریخ) of the contract (معاہدہ) arrives (آتی ہے), the outcome (نتیجہ) of the war would be known (معلوم ہو چکا ہوگا) and they would be betting (شرط لگا رہے ہوں گے) that the US would have prevailed (کامیاب ہو چکا ہوگا), and the price of oil would have either stabilised (مستحکم ہو گیا ہوگا) or dropped. Either way (ہر صورت), it would be one way to stabilise (مستحکم کرنا) the market at a higher price point (بلند سطح), while buying (خریدتے ہوئے) some time in which to see the war through (ختم ہونے تک دیکھنا).

But things did not work out (کام نہیں کیا) as planned (منصوبہ بندی کے مطابق), obviously (واضح طور پر). The war dragged on (طویل ہو گئی). The strait (آبنائے) remained (رہی) closed (بند). And as Donald Trump (ڈونلڈ ٹرمپ) grew desperate (بے چین) to avoid (بچنے کے لیے) a catastrophe (تباہی) in the oil market, by late March (مارچ کے آخر تک) his administration had issued (جاری کیے) sanctions waivers (پابندیوں میں نرمی) for Russian oil (روسی تیل) as well as (اسی طرح) some Iranian oil. A little earlier (کچھ پہلے), they had announced releases from their SPR, usually (عام طور پر) something done when the country has been attacked (حملہ کیا گیا ہو).

Those steps (اقدامات), though (اگرچہ), were not enough (کافی نہیں تھے). As the war dragged on, and the last oil tankers (تیل بردار جہاز) that left Hormuz at the start (آغاز) of the war reached (پہنچے) their destinations (منزلیں), the desperation (بے چینی) grew. This is where the paper oil theory (نظریہ) comes in. Oil watchers are now wondering aloud whether active oil market manipulation has begun.

If manipulation (ہیرا پھیری) is taking place (ہو رہی ہے), it means (مطلب ہے) the US government is now selling (بیچ رہی ہے) massive quantities (بڑی مقدار) of oil on the futures market, oil that they don’t actually (حقیقت میں نہیں) have, at least not at the price at which they are selling it. For the racket (غیر قانونی طریقہ) to work (چلنے کے لیے), it would need to be kept (رکھا جائے) under wraps (خفیہ), because price manipulation (قیمت میں ہیرا پھیری) in any market fails (ناکام ہوتی ہے) if players (شرکاء) know (جان لیں) that the price is being manipulated. But you know price manipulation from its effects (اثرات). In the oil markets, for instance (مثال کے طور پر), manipulation will create (پیدا کرے گی) what sector analysts (ماہرین) call (کہتے ہیں) ‘decoupling’ (الگ ہو جانا), a situation (حالت) where all the various prices that make up (تشکیل دیتے ہیں) an oil market start moving apart (الگ الگ حرکت کرنا) from each other. To some extent (حد تک), this has already happened, for example, jet fuel and diesel prices have skyrocketed (بہت بڑھ گئی ہیں) beyond (سے آگے) any of the others.

But the most important (اہم ترین) decoupling would be between the futures market and what they call the ‘physical market’ (حقیقی منڈی). The first is oil on paper (کاغذی تیل). The second is oil in hand (حقیقی تیل). Normally (عام طور پر), the price difference (فرق) between them is only a few dollars. But these days (ان دنوں), it has shot up (بہت بڑھ گیا ہے) to almost $40 per barrel (فی بیرل). And the increase (اضافہ) in this difference began shortly (جلد ہی) after March 20, when the previous (پچھلے) round (مرحلہ) of steps to stabilise oil prices were taken.

Asked about this, Terry Duffy (ٹیری ڈفی), chairman (چیئرمین) of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (شکاگو مرکنٹائل ایکسچینج), recently (حال ہی میں) said that attempts (کوششیں) to manipulate oil markets like this can create (پیدا کر سکتی ہیں) a “biblical (انتہائی بڑا) disaster (تباہی)”. Another executive (اعلیٰ عہدیدار) mentioned (ذکر کیا) to the media that his firm (کمپنی) received (موصول ہوئیں) queries (سوالات) from its clients (صارفین) on whether a recent large spurt (اچانک اضافہ) of transactions (لین دین) was initiated (شروع کیا گیا) by the US government. If done right (صحیح طریقے سے), price manipulation leaves (چھوڑتی ہے) no smoking gun evidence (واضح ثبوت) behind, because it would not work if it did. But it reveals (ظاہر کرتا ہے) itself by the effects it produces. And recent (حالیہ) moves (حرکات) in oil markets strongly (مضبوطی سے) suggest (اشارہ کرتے ہیں) that the ‘paper oil’ racket is in full swing (پورے زور پر ہے).

Khurram Husain

April 16, 2026

Dawn

Disclaimer:
The meanings of difficult words provided in this article are intended solely to help followers better understand the content. While every effort has been made to ensure accuracy, any errors or misunderstandings are unintentional. If any mistake is found, we sincerely apologize and request your kind pardon.

16/04/2026

Dire straits

RECENT (حالیہ) events (واقعات) have given (دیا ہے) a new twist (نیا موڑ) to history (تاریخ). A Chicago-born (شکاگو میں پیدا ہونے والا) pontiff (پوپ) from Rome (روم) has publicly (کھلے عام) rebuked (سرزنش کی) an American (امریکی) Christian (عیسائی) crusader (مہم چلانے والا).

Normally (عام طور پر), popes (پوپ) issue (جاری کرتے ہیں) insipid (بے جان) encyclicals (مذہبی فرمان) or harmless (بے ضرر) homilies (وعظ). In 1968, for example (مثال کے طور پر), Pope Paul VI issued Of Human Life — a justification (جواز) of the Catholic church’s opposition (مخالفت) to methods (طریقے) of birth control (خاندانی منصوبہ بندی). (One sceptic (شک کرنے والا) wondered (سوچا) how a celibate (غیر شادی شدہ) bachelor (کنوارا) felt qualified (اہل سمجھتا تھا) to guide (رہنمائی کرنا) married (شادی شدہ) couples (جوڑے) on such an intimate (ذاتی) matter (معاملہ).)

Previous (پچھلے) popes chose (منتخب کیا) not to interfere (مداخلت کرنا) even when human rights (انسانی حقوق) were being violated (خلاف ورزی ہو رہی تھی). In the 1940s, Pope Pius XII refrained (باز رہا) from any condemnation (مذمت) of the N***s (نازی) or Stalin’s pogroms (قتلِ عام). Hi**er (ہٹلر) let (اجازت دی) Mussolini (مسولینی) handle (سنبھالنا) the Vatican (ویٹیکن). Stalin (اسٹالن) silenced (خاموش کر دیا) the pope with the cutting (سخت) question (سوال): “How many divisions (فوجی ڈویژن) has the Pope?”

This Easter (ایسٹر), Pope Leo XIV felt impelled (مجبور محسوس کیا) to speak out (آواز اٹھانا) against a fellow countryman (ہم وطن) — the US Secretary of War (وزیر جنگ) Pete Hegseth — who had appealed (اپیل کی) to “Almighty (قادر مطلق) God who trains (سکھاتا ہے) our hands for war (جنگ) and our fingers for battle (جنگ)” (Psalm 144). On Palm Sunday (اتوار عیدِ نخل), Pope Leo XIV, in the name (نام پر) of the same God and quoting (حوالہ دیتے ہوئے) from the same Holy Bible (مقدس بائبل), reproached (ملامت کی) Hegseth: “When you spread out (پھیلاتے ہو) your hands in prayer (دعا), I hide (چھپا لیتا ہوں) my eyes from you; even when you offer (پیش کرتے ہو) many prayers, I am not listening (نہیں سنتا). Your hands are full of blood (خون سے بھرے ہیں)!” (Isaiah 1:15).

Did Trump deliberately (جان بوجھ کر) send Vance to Islamabad to fail (ناکام ہونا)?

It is perhaps (شاید) telling (معنی خیز) that the recent negotiations (مذاکرات) between the US and Iran held (منعقد ہوئے) in Islamabad on April 11 did not begin (شروع نہیں ہوئے) with a prayer (دعا) from any faith (مذہب). It might (ممکن تھا) have given the talks a chance (موقع). Instead (اس کے بجائے), the divine (الٰہی) and Israel were both noticeably (واضح طور پر) absent (غیر موجود).

The composition (تشکیل) of the US team (ٹیم) revealed (ظاہر کیا) non-seriousness (غیر سنجیدگی). Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner are Jewish (یہودی) real estate (جائیداد) developers (ترقی دینے والے) from New York (نیویارک). They had disappointed (مایوس کیا) the Iranians twice (دو بار) earlier (پہلے). They have a record (ریکارڈ) of being midwives (دائی) who specialise (مہارت رکھتے ہیں) in lucrative (منافع بخش) abortions (خاتمہ). Nevertheless (اس کے باوجود), Iran accepted (قبول کیا) them, hoping (امید رکھتے ہوئے) that Vice-President (نائب صدر) J.D. Vance might bring (لا سکتا ہے) some gravitas (سنجیدگی) and maturity (پختگی) to the table (مذاکرات).

They were wrong (غلط تھے). President (صدر) Trump sabotaged (سبوتاژ کیا) the Islamabad talks even before they had begun by announcing (اعلان کرتے ہوئے): “If it doesn’t happen, I’m blaming (الزام دوں گا) J.D. Vance. If it does happen, I’m taking full credit (پورا کریڈٹ لوں گا).” With that, Trump ensured (یقینی بنایا) the failure (ناکامی) of his VP (نائب صدر), just as president Joe Biden, by delaying (تاخیر کر کے) his withdrawal (دستبرداری) from the presidential race (صدارتی دوڑ) in 2024, scotched (ختم کر دیا) his VP Kamala Harris’ chances (امکانات).

It has been reported (رپورٹ کیا گیا) that, during a White House (وائٹ ہاؤس) meeting (اجلاس) on Feb 12, Vance sided with (حمایت کی) CIA director (ڈائریکٹر) Ratcliffe who described (بیان کیا) Benjamin Netanyahu’s proposal (تجویز) to attack Iran as “farcical” (مضحکہ خیز). Vance told Trump: “This is a bad idea (برا خیال), but if you want to do it, I’ll support (حمایت کروں گا) you.” He warned (خبردار کیا) that such a war would cause (پیدا کرے گی) “regional (علاقائی) chaos (افراتفری)”.

Did Trump deliberately send Vance to Islamabad to fail? Or, subtler (زیادہ باریک), still, did Vance (a recent convert (نیا مذہب اختیار کرنے والا) to Catholicism (عیسائیت)) sacrifice (قربان کیا) himself this Easter so that he could resurrect (دوبارہ ابھرنا) himself to succeed (کامیاب ہونا) a damaged (متاثرہ), declining (زوال پذیر) Trump? Vance knows (جانتا ہے) he is only a heartbeat (ایک لمحہ) away from the presidency (صدارت), as were H. Truman to F.D. Roosevelt (1945), L.B. Johnson to J.F. Kennedy (1963), and G. Ford to R. Nixon (1974).

Vance disclosed (ظاہر کیا) in his final (آخری) statement (بیان) in Islamabad that the US had wanted Iran to abjure (ترک کرنا) nuclear (جوہری) ambitions (خواہشات), forever (ہمیشہ کے لیے). Was it lost on him (کیا اسے اندازہ نہیں تھا) that he made this demand (مطالبہ) in the capital (دارالحکومت) of a country that is said to possess (رکھتا ہے) an estimated (تخمینہ شدہ) 170 nuclear weapons (جوہری ہتھیار) and which hasn’t signed (دستخط نہیں کیے) the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (جوہری عدم پھیلاؤ معاہدہ)? (Iran signed the NPT in 1968.)

Is the ongoing (جاری) war really about Iran’s nuclear capability (صلاحیت)? Or the hydrocarbons (ہائیڈروکاربن) choking (بند کر رہے ہیں) the veins (رگیں) of the Gulf Arabs? Or the dangerous (خطرناک) gauntlet (مشکل راستہ) run by traffic (آمدورفت) in the Strait of Hormuz (آبنائے ہرمز)? Or is it Israel’s rapacity (لالچ) for lebensraum (جگہ حاصل کرنے کی خواہش)?

The US/Israel vs Iran war has entered (داخل ہو چکی ہے) yet another (ایک اور) menacing (خطرناک) phase (مرحلہ). Trump and Netanyahu will continue (جاری رکھیں گے) the Duke of Wellington’s strategy (حکمت عملی) at Waterloo in 1812: “Let’s see who will pound (مارنا) the longest.” The Arab states (عرب ریاستیں) are learning (سیکھ رہی ہیں) that the US-supplied (فراہم کردہ) security umbrella (سیکیورٹی چھتری) has a design fault (خرابی). It opens (کھلتی ہے) during sunshine (دھوپ) and closes (بند ہو جاتی ہے) when it rains missiles (میزائلوں کی بارش).

And in a poignant (دل کو چھو لینے والا) gesture (اشارہ) of remembrance (یادگار), the Iranians filled (بھر دیا) the empty seats (خالی نشستیں) in one of the three aircraft (طیارے) that flew (اڑے) to Islamabad (دو تھے decoys (دھوکہ دینے والے)) with images (تصاویر) and satchels (بیگ) of the 168 Minab schoolgirls killed (مار دی گئیں) in the first US/Israeli attack (حملہ) on Feb 28. Embattled (گھیرے ہوئے) Iranians are reconciling (مطمئن ہو رہے ہیں) themselves to the fatalism (قسمت پر یقین) inherent (موجود) in their belief (عقیدہ): “A man can die but once; we owe God a death.”

Meanwhile (اسی دوران), Pakistan has come out tops (نمایاں رہا). For acting (کردار ادا کرنا) as a gracious (مہمان نواز) host (میزبان) to the US and Iranian delegations (وفود) in Islamabad, it has been provided (فراہم کیے گئے) $6 billion by Saudi Arabia (سعودی عرب) and Qatar (قطر), to repay (واپس ادا کرنا) a $3.5bn loan (قرض) recalled (واپس لیا گیا) by the UAE (متحدہ عرب امارات) and to retire (ادا کرنا) $1.43bn in Eurobonds (یورو بانڈز). An insolvent (دیوالیہ) Pakistan no longer (اب نہیں) finds (پاتا ہے) itself in dire straits (سنگین مشکلات).

F.S. Aijazuddin

April 16, 2026

Dawn

Disclaimer:
The meanings of difficult words provided in this article are intended solely to help followers better understand the content. While every effort has been made to ensure accuracy, any errors or misunderstandings are unintentional. If any mistake is found, we sincerely apologize and request your kind pardon.

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