Typhoon Central PH

🌀 The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) has upgraded TD 04W into a Tropical Storm and is now designated as HAGUPIT.

🌀 JTWC has also upgraded into a Tropical Storm this afternoon.

🌪️HAGUPIT has maximum winds of 65 km/hr and moving West at 18 km/hr. A slight turn to the West-northwest is expected.

🇵🇭 FOR THE PHILIPPINES 🇵🇭
HAGUPIT is expected to cross into the Philippines AoR (PAR) and be given the local designation of CALOY. It is not affecting the PH landmass as of this time.

⚠️ AGENCY-ISSUED WARNINGS

US National Weather Service Guam

Tropical Storm Warning - Faraulep, Satawal, and Woleai in Yap State.

Tropical Storm Watch - Yap, Ulithi, Fais, and Ngulu in Yap State.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions including winds of 64 to 116 km/hr are expected within 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions including winds of 64 to 116 km/hr are possible within 48 hours.

🕙 NEAR-TERM DISCUSSION (now up to next 5 days)

🌀 HAGUPIT is forecast to track generally to the West-northwest and remain a Tropical Storm in the forecast period. JMA is saying a bit of weakening by day 5, but the Philippine Sea has its magic properties...

🗓️LONG-TERM DISCUSSION (over 5 days)

🌀 Track forecast beyond 5 days remain split between a Luzon close shave or a recurve to the north. There is a wide spread in the tracks and model forecasts at this time period.

TCPH

Last Night the Japan Meteorological Agency issued its first warning on then-invest area LPA 93W as a full blown Tropical Depression.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center has also upgraded the LPA Southeast of Guam into the 5th Tropical Depression of the season.

🇵🇭 FOR THE PHILIPPINES 🇵🇭

TD 04W is forecast to ENTER THE PAR in the next 2-4 days. Forecast tracks are not certain if it will make landfall or recurve to the north. Residents along NE Mindanao, the Visayas, Central and Southern Luzon are advised to monitor the progress of 05W.

The next PH name is CALOY.
The next WMO name is HAGUPIT.

Both predict the TD to strengthen into a Tropical Storm within 24 hours.

🔄 Meanwhile, Invest 92W - last found near Palau - has fizzled out into a Tropical wave. Invest 94W - is still there right behind TD 05W.

TCPH will keep monitoring.

📸 Dapiya, JMA, JTWC.

We are closely monitoring a series of Tropical Disturbances in the Western Pacific for potential development into a Tropical Cyclone within the next 24 hours.

🔄 Invest Area/LPA 92W
Located near Palau, 1010 km East off Davao City. The system is about to enter the PAR. Development is forecast to be poor.

🔄 Invest Area/LPA 93W
Located 840 km Southeast of Guam. This system has improved considerably in the last hours and is now the subject of a Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center of the US Navy. The Japan Meteorological Agency now considers the system a Tropical Depression. This system is forecast to enter the PAR in the next 3-5 days.

🔄 Invest Area/LPA 94W
Located 170 km Southwest of Chuuk Atoll, or 2150 km East-Southeast of Guam. This has also potential to become a much more organized system in the next 72 hours.

📸Dapiya, JMA, JTWC, CyclonicWx. Graphics by TCPH.

Shout out to my newest followers! Excited to have you onboard! Kanterin Enlet, Karen Radonich, Emelia Luz Medes, Cyrus Litana, Willie Miranda, Mechelle Whiting, Ronaldo Molo, Rosie Concepcion, 王得宇, Lorna Urbano, Tomwofinuk Gaming Ephiny, Kip Zynda, Ericka Osorio, Man Chatchai, Orlando Gustav, Jairus John Inoc, Nissan Nissan, Jennylynn Camacho Babauta, Emmanuel Bo, Laurence Sisracon, Kenneth Jhon Ferrer, Lanie Manuyag, Mi Suk Kwon, Therese Acfalle, Mark Anthony V Dacasin, John Guswel, June Flores, Jeff V Amigo, Xiang Hua Li, Niewe Memer, Olan Cruz, Elmy Linney, Ako Camacho, Haiyan Zong, Cheilina Reiong, Kathy Trabosh, Susie A. Torres, Howard Bretzke, ShayShay Eliam, Rennieboy Velasco Pirino, Vallen Ningaeriy, Ricky Palad, Marisa Elieisar Jose, Alemar Palamine, Srh Dongobir, Jan Raven Aboga, Rish Ny, Jonas Smith, Justina Harong, Re Umwuto

Radar and Satellite images suggest that Saipan and Tinian is now within the eye of Super Typhoon SINLAKU.

📷 Dapiya, US NWS

🌀 Super Typhoon SINLAKU is just hours away from crossing the Northern Marianas Island chain as it tracks to the Northwest.

🌀 Super Typhoon Sinlaku (04W) continues to move northwest toward
the Marianas, with rain bands of Sinlaku moving south to south-
southeast rotating in over the islands, and continuing to bring periods of heavy showers, thunderstorms, and strong winds. The most recent storm track produced by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) has shifted slightly north but continues to favor
the center of Sinlaku passing near or over Tinian and Saipan, potentially north of Saipan. While Sinlaku is forecasted to gradually weaken the next few days, it is expected to cross the Marianas near or over Tinian and Saipan as a Category 4 typhoon. (NWS-Guam)

Since last night Saipan, Tinian and Rota have been experiencing Tropical Storm Conditions and are forecast to worsen into Typhoon conditions if not already during the daylight hours.

*** As of 7:20 am PHT / 9:20 am Guam ***

✈️ Andersen AFB Guam: 83 km/h gusting to 109 km/h, 987 hpa
✈️ Saipan International Airport: 68 km/h with gusts of 122 km/h, 984 hpa

🌀 STY Sinlaku will track to the north after passing the Marianas and will NOT ENTER THE Philippines Area of Responsibility (PAR).

📷 Dapiya, JMA, Cyclonicwx, Windy

SuperTyphoon SINLAKU is bearing down on the Marianas tonight as it moves closer to Saipan and Tinian Islands.

Any shift left or right of the track can mean a lot -- a difference of having a full-on eyewall conditions to having typhoon force or tropical storm winds.

The US Government has placed Guam under TCCOR 1 - meaning shelter in place, expect destructive winds within 12 hours.

The US National Weather Service Guam issued the following WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A Typhoon Warning remains in effect for Rota, Tinian, and Saipan.
A Tropical Storm Warning and Typhoon Watch remain in effect for
Guam.
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for Pagan and Alamagan.
A Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect for Agrihan.

A Flood Watch is in effect for all of Guam and the Northern
Marianas.

Tropical Storm conditions may have begun in the areas listed above with Typhoon conditions occurring tomorrow morning.

To our followers in Guam and the Northern Marianas, hunker down and we will be praying for your safety.

TCPH

🌀 SINLAKU was upgraded into a SUPER TYPHOON early this morning by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. It is now bearing down on the Northern Marianas Islands and is a potentially dangerous and catastrophic situation.

STY Sinlaku is a Category 5 Tropical Cyclone.

🇵🇭 FOR THE PHILIPPINES 🇵🇭
SINLAKU WILL NOT ENTER THE PAR. Chances are almost zero.

📍 At 8am 13 April 2026 PH Time (0000 UTC), SINLAKU's eye was located 440 km East-Southeast of Guam, USA... or 440 km Southeast of Saipan, Northern Marianas...Moving North-Northwest at 19 km/hr. A true superhowler, minimum pressure has dropped to 895 hpa.

⚠️WARNINGS FROM the US National Weather Service Guam ⚠️

🟣Rota, Tinian, Saipan remains in Typhoon Warning
🔴Typhoon Watch and Tropical Storm Warning in effect in Guam, Ulul in Chuuk.
🟡Tropical Storm Watch in Alamagan and Pagan

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm condition including damaging winds of 64 to 116 km/hr are expected within the next 24 hours or are ongoing

A Typhoon Warning means that typhoon conditions including damaging winds of over 117 km/hr, are expected within the next 24 hours or are ongoing

🌪️INTENSITY ESTIMATES
🇺🇸 NWS Guam (1-min ave): 175 mi/hr or 281 km/hr
🇯🇵 JMA (10-min ave): 215 km/h with gusts up to 305 km/hr... A Violent Typhoon
🇺🇸 JTWC (1-min ave): 295 km/h with gusts up to 350 km/h (from best track

🕙NEAR-TERM DISCUSSION (now up to next 3-5 days)
🌀SINLAKU's track forecast has shifted a little bit more to the right and indicates a more Northern track. A direct strike is now in the cards for Tinian and Saipan... Any shift north or south will mean worse or not conditions for Rota and Guam.

🗓️LONG-TERM DISCUSSION (over 5 days)
🌀 Forecast models have remained consistent and are in good agreement that SINLAKU will then recurve to the North and East and remain offshore, away from any Asian Landmasses.

📸Dapiya, Zoom Earth, JMA, US National Weather Service Guam.

🌀SINLAKU has rapidly intensified as now shown with a clear eye into a Category 3 Typhoon. It may reach Super Typhoon status in the coming hours

🇵🇭 FOR THE PHILIPPINES 🇵🇭
ALMOST CERTAIN THAT SINLAKU WILL NOT ENTER THE PAR. This Tropical Cyclone will not impact or even affect directly or indirectly the Philippines.

📍 At 8am 12 April 2026 PH Time, SINLAKU's eye/center was located 745 km Southeast of Guam, USA... Moving Northwest

⚠️WARNINGS FROM the US National Weather Service Guam
Rota, Tinian, Saipan: Typhoon Warning NOW in effect
Guam: Tropical Storm Warning NOW in effect
Alamagan and Pagan: Tropical Storm Watch NOW in effect

Typhoon Warning remains in effect for Fananu, Chuuk State
Tropical Storm Warning & Typhoon watch remain in effect for Ulul, Chuuk State
Typhoon Watch remains in effect for Guam

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm condition including damaging winds of 64 to 116 km/hr are expected within the next 24 hours or are ongoing

A Typhoon Warning means that typhoon conditions including damaging winds of over 117 km/hr, are expected within the next 24 hours or are ongoing

🌪️INTENSITY ESTIMATES
🇺🇸 NWS Guam (1-min ave): 125 mi/hr or 200 km/hr
🇯🇵 JMA (10-min ave): 175 km/h with gusts up to 240 km/hr
🇺🇸 JTWC (1-min ave): 205 km/h with gusts up to 175 km/h (from best track

🕙NEAR-TERM DISCUSSION (now up to next 3-5 days)
🌀SINLAKU's track forecast has shifted to the right and indicates a more Northern track, passing between Guam and Saipan by Tuesday possibly as a Super Typhoon. The northerly shift may mean more areas/islands of the Northern Marianas may get affected by the Typhoon.

🗓️LONG-TERM DISCUSSION (over 5 days)
🌀 Forecast models have remained consistent and are in good agreement that SINLAKU will recurve to the North and East and remain offshore, away from any Asian Landmasses.

🌀SINLAKU is now a upgraded into a Typhoon as it becomes Quasi-stationary over the Pacific Ocean, Southeast of Guam. A turn to the Northwest is expected in the coming hours and will possibly take the core of the Typhoon towards the US island of Guam by early next week.

🇵🇭 FOR THE PHILIPPINES 🇵🇭
INCREASING LIKELIHOOD OF PAR NO-ENTRY 🚫
This Tropical Cyclone will not impact the Philippines within the next 7 days.

📍 At 8am 11 April 2026 PH Time, SINLAKU's eye/center was located 890 km Southeast of Guam, USA... Moving Northeast slowly.

⚠️WARNINGS FROM the US National Weather Service Guam ⚠️
- A Typhoon Watch remains in effect for Ulul in Chuuk State.
- A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for Chuuk, Fananu, Ulul, and Polowat in Chuuk State.

A Typhoon Watch means that typhoon conditions are possible within the next 48 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions,
including damaging winds of 39 to 73 mi/hr, are expected within the next 24 hours or are ongoing.

🌪️INTENSITY ESTIMATES
🇺🇸 NWS Guam (1-min ave): 112 km/h
🇯🇵 JMA (10-min ave): 130 km/h with gusts up to 240 km/h
🇺🇸 JTWC (1-min ave): 140 km/h with gusts up to 175 km/h (from best track)

🕙NEAR-TERM DISCUSSION (now up to next 3-5 days)
🌀SINLAKU is forecast to turn to the Northwest in the coming hours and make its approach towards Guam by early next week as a strong Typhoon. Intensification into a Super Typhoon is not ruled out and SINLAKU may be the first April Typhoon to strike Guam since Olive in 1963 (thanks Cuyugan!)

🗓️LONG-TERM DISCUSSION (over 5 days)
🌀After Guam, forecast models are in good agreement that SINLAKU will move more to the North and East and miss any more land areas. However long-period waves may be generated by the typhoon and reach Pacific facing coasts and beaches. Park the name "Caloy" for now. This storm may not even reach the Philippine AoR line (PAR) to do that.

📸Zoom Earth, JMA, US National Weather Service Guam

The Tropical Cyclone southeast of Guam has intensified into a Tropical Storm designated as SINLAKU.

The US National Weather Service has raised a Typhoon Watch, and Tropical Storm Warnings and Watches in several areas in Micronesia.

NEAR TERM FORECAST (now up to 120 hrs)
Currently with winds of 83 km/hr, the storm is forecast to move close to, if not over Guam by Wednesday possibly as a strong typhoon as it turns into the Northwest.

LONG TERM FORECAST (over 120 hours)
SINLAKU's chances of entering the Philippines Area of Responsibility are becoming less and less as forecast models and tracks are leaning more into a recurve to the North.