08/09/2026
*** TIPS ON TUESDAY *** Fresh Start: Decoding the Road Part 4
AN M6 FRAMEWORK BACKGROUND ARTICLE
Over the last three weeks, I've been explaining how we never see the whole road when riding, but a constantly-shifting slice from which our brains use the knowledge of what just happened, fragments of information about what's happening now, to create a mental 'Working Model' to infer what's going to happen in the next few seconds. This is often called 'Situational Awareness' and I've called the resulting “best guess” model the 'Perceptual Road'. I also explained that we cannot see 'everything' that's visible because the brain has neither the bandwidth nor the processing power to manage that. Our attention must be selective and is fine-tuned by the use of 'cues' and 'cueing'. We learn to filter out unimportant information, and prioritise the detection and analysis of the important information fragments.
However, neither the cue nor the cueing alone are sufficient — the next step is to bridge the gap between perception and action. This week, we're going to move on to what cognitive psychology calls 'schemas'.
1. Perception, comprehension, projection
Let's start with a quick review of last week, when I mentioned the three-level model of Situational Awareness.
Level 1: Perception of relevant elements (Cues & Cueing) — the eyes scan the environment and detect something — for example, a car at a junction. But just seeing it achieves nothing on its own.
Level 2: Comprehension of their meaning (The Working Mental Model) — we ask the “What if...?” question; what if the car turns into our path? But once again, that question on its own achieves nothing. It needs an answer.
Level 3: Projection of their future status (The What Happens Next Stage) — we answer the “What if...?” question which a “...Then this!” prediction by projecting the timeline forward into the immediate future to predict how hazard might develop into a threat: “If I maintain my speed and position and if that car pull outs, it's likely we will collide in a couple of seconds.”
It's not quite the straightforward sequential 1-2-3 process it might seem. Projection can influence what we look for; expectations and goals influence attention and perception; and Situational Awareness is constantly updated.
2. Projection — anticipating how the situation may develop
We can use the term 'projection' to describe the continuous process of looking beyond the 'here and now' to ask: “if my interpretation of the road is correct, what should I expect to happen, and if this continues, what am I going to have to deal with?”
“Lift your eyes”, “look further ahead”, or “search for the Limit Point” are all expressions aimed at developing this ability. But the rider isn't simply 'seeing more' or looking 'further ahead'. The aim is to extend the mental model into the future, giving the brain more time to recognise patterns, anticipate what might happen then decide what to do before the situation becomes urgent and correct as needed, then to continue checking it against new information.
Projection is:
i. Continuous — the mental model is constantly updated.
ii. Pre-decisional — the model is tested against what is likely to happen to see if the current plan still makes sense.
iii. Post-decisional — after taking action, the model checks the outcome was correct and whether the action was appropriate.
Projection also operates across different time horizons:
i. Immediate horizon — confirmation: “Is what I'm doing still appropriate?”
ii. Short-range horizon — adjustment: “does my plan need to change?”
iii. Long-range horizon — planning: “what am I likely to have to deal with next?”
Projection is the hinge between perception and action. The further ahead the rider can project reliably, the more time and space there is to make a controlled decision. This is a central principle of the Smith System of Driving: aim high, look far and plan early. See:
SoS February 5 Aim High In Steering - Smith System part 1
https://ko-fi.com/post/SoS-February-5-Aim-High-In-Steering--Smith-System-A0A6ACS5G
However, knowing that you are about to crash in two seconds does you no good at all. In fact, you're actually little better off than the novice rider who never even saw the threat developing. We also need a strategy to mitigate that threat.
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🛠️ THE M6 FRAMEWORK & WHAT'S COMING NEXT
Over on my www.ko-fi.com/survivalskills page I’m
starting a major reorganisation to build a better home
for the long‑form Survival Skills content.
1. The Deep Dive Archive — the 1000-plus articles
2. The M6 Framework — a new 'Core Skills' structure
3. The Science Of Being Seen project
4. The 'No Surprise? No Accident!' approach
Over the next few weeks, I'll be creating an improved
easier‑to‑navigate structure.
Nothing is disappearing. I’m simply putting everything
into a cleaner, more logical format so readers can find
what they need without so much digging.
More updates soon as the new structure takes shape
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3. Schemas — bridging the gap from projection to action
Let's introduce 'Schema Theory'. A schema is a structured framework of knowledge, a pattern built from past experience, stored in long-term memory. Schema theory isn't a complete explanation of how we act, but it's a useful concept for understanding how Situational Awareness can activate well-practised responses to familiar situations
If situational awareness is the real-time process of understanding the road, schemas are knowledge structures that help make appropriate action possible:
i. Activation — when a rider sees a cue, the brain tries to match it to a known pattern.
ii. Interpretation — the identified pattern then shapes what the rider believes is happening and what is likely to happen next.
Once Level 3 answers the “What if...?” question with the “...Then this!” answer, the recognised pattern can activate well-practised actions or procedures — sometimes described as scripts — stored in memory and which help guide the appropriate response.
Well-established perceptual and motor associations allow the rider to recognise developing conflict rapidly, and practice can make the selection and ex*****on of an appropriate evasive response faster and less cognitively demanding. For example, if a car begins to turn across the rider's path, a typical response from an experienced rider might include:
i. roll off the throttle, search for an escape route, check if the conflict is still developing
ii. counter-steer to move away from the vehicle
iii. progressive squeeze on the brakes
iv. prepare for maximum deceleration if braking distance is insufficient
The advantage isn't that the motorcycle suddenly stops more quickly. It's that an earlier, better-prepared response can begin sooner.
Schemas can operate at different levels of sophistication. In this collision avoidance example, maybe the expert rider wouldn't wait for the potential threat to materialise, but would proactively attempt to eliminate the potential conflict — positioning away from the junction to improve the line of sight, easing off the throttle, covering the brakes, and maybe sounding the horn.
Schemas thus allow for efficient responses, which reduces cognitive load, in turn freeing-up attention for alternative tasks or giving the brain a much-needed rest. Without schemas, riding would be even more mentally exhausting than it already is.
4. Lack of / Mistaken Schemas can contribute to panic reactions
Without these schemas, your brain would have to figure out how each situation encountered on the road works; from scratch; every single time you met that set of circumstances.
And as you've probably guessed, in this junction conflict you may not have long enough.
The lack of a schema is likely the direct trigger for SURPRISE! which instantly unlocks the body’s primal, frantic Survival Reactions (SRs) that I have talked about many times before.
When the Level 3 mental model of Situational Awareness fails to predict an event, or when it predicts a conflict but the rider has no well-practised response available, the resulting surprise and time pressure can contribute to unhelpful defensive reactions such as freezing, panic-braking or target fixation. The term famously coined by Keith Code in 'A Twist of the Wrist II' for these unwanted responses was 'Survival Reactions'. In truth, they are almost always the wrong thing to do on a motorcycle and usually put us deeper in trouble.
This is why novice riders tend to be more at risk from what would seem to be 'predictable' crashes than more-experienced motorcyclists.
5. Expert Schemas, Expert Errors
Experience supplies the data which makes this rapid interpretation possible but a schema is not a detailed memory. It’s a template — a compressed model of “what usually happens next” — and they are fallible.
Effective real-world performance also requires procedural knowledge: knowing how to recognise and respond to the situation, rather than merely being able to describe it. These processes are consistent with what's been termed Recognition-Primed Decision Making (RPD).
Instead of generating a list of pros and cons for different courses of action, an expert's brain recognises a familiar pattern and identifies a plausible course of action, which can then be mentally simulated or adapted as necessary. This allows experts to make high-stakes, split-second choices without lengthy deliberation. It’s efficient, but RPD depends heavily on a rich repository of experiential patterns. Novices have fewer and less-developed patterns to draw upon, while even expert riders can face novel situations and when the cues are incomplete or misleading, it can trigger the wrong response.
Broadly speaking, schemas can be:
i. over‑generalised — assuming one situation must be like another (“I’ve never had a slide in a bend, so I won’t have one in this bend”).
ii. mis‑matched — applying the wrong template (“The surface looks the same, so it must be the same”).
iii. biased — shaped by expectation rather than evidence (“Nothing ever pulls out of that driveway, so why expect it to happen today”).
iv. premature — activated before enough information is available (“The driver must have seen me because I can see them”).
Schemas don’t guarantee accuracy. They help make faster decisions — and that can be dangerous when the cues are incomplete. When the gap between the reality and the working model of the Perceptual Road opens up because of a faulty schema, the consequences include errors such as misunderstandings at junctions, over-enthusiasm in bends and over‑confidence in overtakes. The ability to revise the prediction rather than remain committed to it is just as important as making the prediction in the first place.
Many of the patterns that underpin effective schemas are strengthened through real-world experience, particularly varied experience with meaningful feedback. But they can also be developed through observation, instruction, simulation and carefully designed practice.
SUMMING UP
Perception and comprehension can make a previously learned response available. Much of the practical expression of this thinking should be familiar to anyone with a background in advanced riding — or even just a long-time history of motorcycling. Experienced riders have been executing these techniques for decades, often describing them simply as 'roadcraft', 'anticipation', or 'riding by the seat of your pants'.
The aim of this article is not to tear up the rulebook of advanced riding. Instead, it should help you dig into the “Mind Behind the Machine”, and better understand the cognitive programming that's going on in the background. This will help any rider understand themselves better and program their responses more effectively. If you're coaching, it should assist you to understand what concepts are transferred to trainees, why they have a sound basis and why they actually work.
NEXT WEEK
If simply talking about threats in the classroom can't do it, how do we build schemas safely in training? It requires a specific educational approach. That's what we'll look into next week; practical ways to firm up the transition from “vague theory” to “pre-programmed schema”.
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