Fabio Mezzogori

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Operating as usual

Photos from Fabio Mezzogori's post 06/04/2023

ES downside is potentially not over yet!! (over longer-term time frame). A downside potential is still on the table for today's session.

All the U.S. indexes are finally coming back to earth after a super strong Q1 end.

An area to pay attention to is 4115 for renewed selling pressure.

If that holds, I will be stalking short from that area.

Spot to monitor will be the neutral 4198 and, if broken too, then I will be seller again down into the bull zone 4151.

If the bear zone 4115 breaks to the upside, a scalp long into yesterday lack of excess around 4127 would be the target for the long position for me, for then re-accessing the strength picture after that is done.

Trade safe!

Photos from Fabio Mezzogori's post 05/04/2023

Price struggled to stay beyond the bull zone 😨, so what did it do? My hypo 2 just covered that trade...

Euro struggled to stay above the bull zone 1.0990 I mentioned this morning in my prep.

Buyers were trying hard, but getting nothing from their effort.

Sure enough, soon after U.S. data, price started to break through the bull zone for good, for then reversing all the way back to the most recent edge of balance.

My hypo 2 for today was exactly that trade. A small scalp reference to reference, going with a quick intraday condition shift.

Can this price get back to lower prices? Sure it can, sure it can't...who knows?! Right?

Trading "what is" is the key to stay afloat in this tough business, so for now that reference held with intraday conditions getting dicey, so I got out. Tomorrow is another day, will see..

Trade safe!

Photos from Fabio Mezzogori's post 05/04/2023

Not an A+ opportunity. Yet something to be monitored for today's session. 😉

I am talking about 6E (euro). 🇪🇺

Price is accepted above a fresh bull zone in area 1.0990.

As long as price remains above it, destination for the up trend are around 1.1100 area.

If price should break below it, a good target should be around the most recent edge of a 3-day balance area.

Let's see what the bulls have left in the tank, shall we?! 💪

Trade safe!

Photos from Fabio Mezzogori's post 04/04/2023

Called the bottom ⤵️. Called the top ⤴️. What else do I need to add for today!? RIP.

As you can recall from my morning prep, I said buyers can wick through that poor low on the overnight profile before becoming aggressive.

That's what happened. N period (blue profile) wicked the prominent lack of excess created during the initial part of the overnight session and the rest is history :)

Initial choppiness during the European session but that low has never been challenged again (bit of panic in W period :). All you needed to do was to be patient and wait the price to start working.

Right now price is trading even above the mid-term destination I identified (2020-2030 area).

If just every day was like today, isn't it?! 🥳

Trade safe!

Photos from Fabio Mezzogori's post 04/04/2023

Q2 started off on fire! 🔥 As well as the end of Q1 😂

Today's opportunity comes on GC (Gold).

Price rallied a lot yesterday, and yet it seems it's not enough.🧯

Currently holding above a confluent reference in area 1994 (bull zone).

If Gold wants to continue higher, this is the spot were renewed buyers can lift the price back up.

Just to be aware of is the prominent lack of excess just above the aforementioned bull zone.

A great way for the bulls to show strength would be wicking through this poor low, clean up old inventories around 1994, for then starting off the day with a bang from this area.

Target zones for the long are a bit loose.

The closest one is at 2005 and the main one would be far ahead around 2025 (very wide zone here).

Sooooo, let's see what the bulls have left in tank, shall we?!?💪💪

Trade safe!

Photos from Fabio Mezzogori's post 31/03/2023

Let's use this post as a reminder for those people that are coming up the rank of CPTs, shall we?!?

Coming into today's session, not a single clear set up is setting up.

End of the week, end of the month, end of the quarter...What a cocktail!!

Indexes had quite a rally to the upside, and, despite what I think, sellers seem to be defeated every time they try to push it back down to normal levels.

So other markets, including oil..

That said, for me, there's not a single reference I am willing to put some risk on this morning.

That's OK! Recognizing that there's nothing to do places you on the driver's seat of your emotional roller coaster of being a trader.

It's not simple, but if you really want to become a CPT (consistently profitable trader), you need to know when you and your strategy(s) are in danger of mistakes. This week, for me, is one of them.

In the past, I'd be forcing entries left and right, compromising everything I could. Of course this comes with a premium...

Today, not anymore. Or at least not as much as I was used to do.

I still feel the urge to bang in a trade, don't get me wrong, but I am in a much better place than I was used to.

How comes?
1. Experience
2. Money lost (a lot!!!!)
3. Being pi**ed at my self so much that I am now disgusted of myself.

‼️ So the lesson here is; If you perceive there's nothing to do (relative to your process), then there's probably nothing to do ‼️
❌ Don't force, Observe ✅. You'll learn soooo much from the market.

Trade safe!

Photos from Fabio Mezzogori's post 30/03/2023

We've already seen a similar situation, right? 🤔

Yes! It's very similar to yesterday's session...

CL essentially started to interact with the area I mentioned in my prep at the end of the trading day. It took all day but eventually it got there!! 😰

❓A good question to ask is; how's the price got there?!

Over the intraday time frame, it's clear that buyers were behind the move. Price moved from 73.00 to 74.00 (my bear zone) in a straight line.

Once it got to 74, it started to stabilize just above it instead of a quick rejection.

This acceptance of the area made me think that maybe, sellers are not that interested to sell from there, are they?!

So as of now I am still waiting for the price to give me clarity. Will the 74.00 be accepted? If so, then hypo 3 mentioned this morning will be executed.

If not, and price gets back below 74.00 quickly, Hypo 1 can still on on deck.

Will see, only the time can give me an answer.

As of now, I sit on the sideline.

Trade safe!

Photos from Fabio Mezzogori's post 30/03/2023

👉 Today's best opportunity (March 30th) for CL. Read on for full details...

The price finally broke to the downside the area I mentioned yesterday.

Over those past couple of days, price stagnate around those prices creating balance (sort of).

The best R:R on the table would be shorting from the 74.00 area, IF and WHEN the price will get back there.

If not and price starts coming down from current price, a 2nd idea would be getting short below 72.80, where R:R is still interesting.

Destination for the downside lines up around 72.20's

IF the downside fails and price starts to rally back up above 74.00, then another good trade would be to the upside until further destination in area 75.00

As per usual, Risk and money management are the keys for any kind of trading ideas, so make sure to have those in place BEFORE thinking to do anything.

Trade safe!

Photos from Fabio Mezzogori's post 29/03/2023

It took all day! But it's finally happening! 🔥

CL is finally breaking through the neutral zone in area 72.60

As I mentioned, the upside was not an option for me today.

The trade I am referring to is the potential short opportunity on a pullback into that neutral zone that still has to materialize, so watch out for it over the next hours.

Destination for that short will be around 71.50's area

Trade safe!

Photos from Fabio Mezzogori's post 29/03/2023

Is it getting tired to the upside, and will it start to go down?

CL reached the bear zone around 72.00 area, thing I reiterated already many times.

Yesterday's session was indeed balanced, due to the fact that both buyers and sellers are active in that zone (check yesterday's post for more details).

Price is still trying to get higher, but it is not doing a great "job" in doing so, isn't it?

That said, today's TBO is not an A+ setup, but still something worth to keep an eye on.

I will be waiting for the neutral reference in area 73.50 to be broken through the downside for then start stalking shorts against it.

I don't have a clear target to the downside, it will all depend on the "energy" that the sellers will have (if at all) to push this bad boy lower.

Some indication may be around 72.70. 72.20, 71.00 as main areas for me to look out for potential exhaustion of the move.

For the upside, I am not interested with this current state. Too tired, too choppy.

Trade safe!

Photos from Fabio Mezzogori's post 28/03/2023

What did I say this morning of the potential lack of "energy" for this market to keep on going❓

CL tagged the bear zone in area 72.00 yesterday (call I made several days ago).

This morning price was dissonant across time frames: longer-term inventories loading for shorts (from the bear zone), and shorter-term inventories still gunning for a continuation of the up move.

This is, of course, not the cleanest situation to be in.

Today's session was all down to the reference I have mentioned in my morning prep, around 72.60.

Price did stay above the entire overnight session, squeezed out some longs soon after RTH open, and then back up above it.

Essentially, it was a mess for day traders LOL

👉Lack of clarity
👉Lack of a clear move
👉Lots of chop back and forth
👉Divergence between price movement (overall bullish) and inventory in the market (pretty bearish throughout the session).

👉👉This is what caused this chop.👈👈

So what's today's lesson?! For me is this one; If price gets into an area where both buyers and sellers are active (dissonance across time frames) for day traders is better staying out, UNLESS you love to see your hard earn money to get smoked.

What's your thoughts?
Trade safe!

Photos from Fabio Mezzogori's post 28/03/2023

What do you think of this market? Will it end the session above or below 72.60?

🍾 Finally getting into the bear zone claimed over and over during the previous week!!

CL tagged the bear zone mentioned many times (72.00 area).
For today I have a "very simple" plan;

👉The inflection to monitor is 72.60 area.

👉As of me typing, price is above it, so I will be stalking longs.

👉If it breaks to the downside, I will be stalking short.

Don't forget that this is for me a bear zone over a longer-term time frame.
However, shorter-term hands are pushing this price up, making it dissonant across time frames.

👉That said, I trade WHAT IS, so, it all comes down to that one single reference mentioned. Long above, short below.

⁉️***Side note here; for the price to keep on going (up) as it did in the last sessions, it would require lots of energy! Markets cannot go straight forever! They need to pullback by nature to find renewed energy!

With this in mind, I know that any long attempt can be limited in terms of energy, so I will be cautious with profit taking and all that.

❓What do you think of this market? where will it end the session today?

Trade safe!

Photos from Fabio Mezzogori's post 27/03/2023

❓Will the price break back above it? Let's find out

🤜Today I came up with 3 hypos for the day in GC;

Hypo 1 failed 🤐, so did Hypo 2.🥺

Hypo 2 was more of a "lack of entry" more than a failure, because price just zipped from the higher bull zone to the lower, w/o giving any meaningful opportunity to hop on board the move.

Price continued the downside movement until price interacted with 1950's area, zone where I was expecting renewed buying pressure.

So far, price rejected that area and trading around 1960.🤞

However, today's a very quiet session, which increases the odds for stop runs and or deeper pullbacks.
If price breaks back above 1960's and starts to hold above it, we may see GC back to at least 1970-ish.

If price fails to break back above it, I am expecting a retest of the lower area (1950's).

What's your thoughts?

Let me know in the comment below!
Trade safe!

Photos from Fabio Mezzogori's post 27/03/2023

Very interesting situation is setting up today, isn't it?!

GC is at a major inflection right now around 1969 area.

As per usual, multiple scenarios can unfold throughout today's session;

❗❗❗The KEY in trading is not to predict what happen, BUT to be ready for whatever MAY happen❗❗❗

👉So here's my scenario planning for today;

H1; Price holds 1969 and start to reverse from current prices.
Target for this hypo is 1995 area, where I am expecting bears to step in, at least temporarily.
***NOTE; For this hypo, price can even drop as far as 1960 w/o invalidating the thesis for the long, so watch out for this possibility.

H2; Price starts to hold beneath 1960, in this case I will be scalp short until next major inflection in area 1950.

H3; I will be looking for this aforementioned area (1950) to hold, where I will be looking for longs

Have a great day ahead!

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