Warheads Discipline Dojo

Happy Sunday Funday everybody! BTC has had a rediculous run to the resistance line that comes down from the highs. We are overdue for a correction as you can see that the upwards pink trend it has been following since 29k has now been violated (green circle).

Volume has been decreasing as less people are buying. Rule #1 about entering trades is GOOD ENTRIES. Right now is a terrible entry as there is nothing but air below it. The white lines I've marked are reasonable bounce points.

FLASHBACK to when we were ranging 40-60k. We saw this trend emerge on a seemingly weekly basis. 1 week up, 1 week down. We are still technically ranging until we clear above 42k with volume and push past that pink descending line from the previous highs.

Take profits if you haven't, a good opportunity to buy back cheaper could present itself either today or tomorrow. There is nothing wrong with walking away after a week like we had and re-assessing once the chart looks more approachable.

BULLISH: Somehow we manage to stay above the thick yellow line I have at 41k area. If we consolidated sideways long enough into the week above this line we could burn the momentum indicators down enough to have a stab upwards, but a ton of people are in profits atm so I cannot personally see that happening until after a cooloff period.

- Warhead

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BTC has broken above the 30-40k yellow channel as seen below. We were bound to that range since the major drop in the middle of May.

Sideways is expected over the weekend as people take profits and new buyers re-enter the market. Weekends are notorious for slow volume so not expecting any more major moves until Monday.

Bearish: BTC has created a significant uptrend support line as notated in pink below. If that line becomes violated it is possible that a retracement happens to 36-38k region before boosting back up.

Bullish: Now that we are above the 40k yellow line, we may consolidate above there and use that area as a new launchpad to enact the breakout into the mid/high 40s this week. I am currently bullish unless we venture below 37k again at which point we may need some more time to get back up. I personally do not see this happening.

Current involvement: I am near fully invested back into the market from dip buying with predominantly Bitcoin as my major holding at approximately 60-70% of my entire port value. With BTC Dominance rising this is the major play, with a few outliers alts that have shown to keep up with or surpass the progress of BTC.

Long term time frames of 1 day + are starting to reset and we may see a golden cross in the next couple weeks on the daily chart which would signal a massive rush of investment into the crypto space and the moon mission has a great chance of continuing further.

Buckle up, Grasshopper's!

- Warhead

Greetings Young Grasshopper's! BTC has been looking like a rocket this past week! We have had 8 daily green candles followed by a red Doji indecision candle. This coincides with the previous top of our range at the 40k area. Given the fact we are so over extended I cannot see us breaking through 40k before retracing at least a little bit. If we did 42k would have some stopping power. We have been crabbing sideways for over 48 hours now between 39-41k.

There’s a lot of hype about previous days of green candles in a row. Do not think that this means we are just going to continue with 10+ days in a row of daily greens. Every day that goes by now it becomes more likely that the following day will be red. I suspect that now we’ve put the Doji candle in (indicates indecision/reversal) at a critical resistance line, that we will see some pullback before ravaging up into the 40s hopefully by next week.

BTC has a history of the first week or two of each month being the most bullish before volume dissipates and price corrects in the latter half of the month. Stay vigilant, but don’t be too excited because after this 28-41k mega rally after the most fear and greed we’ve seen in years a pullback is expected. There are a LOT of people in profits whether it be BTC or alts from the past week and you can expect them to take profits at the first sign of a dip.

The bullish case would be that because we’ve gone sideways for the past 2 days + we’ve now created a major “launch pad”, and if somehow we bust above this sideways consolidation, we’ve put in a major support that would be difficult to fall below again in the future if we flipped resistance into support at 40k.

Stay vigilant and enjoy the positivity as it flows back into the market! As volume picks back up and the media starts regular coverage again it won’t take much to resume a mega uptrend! Fingers crossed!

- Warhead

Greeting's Young Grasshoppers!

ITS ALIVEEEE! Did you catch the riskiest dip buy of the year?

Whew. We made it for now. BTC took a death defying move down to the 28k region and had an AMAZING 19% rally to 34k. Unbelievable. Some are speculating that this is fulfilling the Wyckoff accumulation model indicating that to be the "major low" and spring for a final shakeout before proceeding upwards, or at least attempting to.

Having survived 2017/2018 bull run, they say that true capitulation is when even the whales feel it in their stomach. This morning when BTC was at 28k the atmosphere on social media was CAPITULATION. The type of comments being posted were unrecognizable from even days before. Su***de hotline numbers being posted, people begging for help and selling at losses as the FUD pushed the 20k narrative hard. Polls were going up with 50% chance of 20k and 50% chance of 40k.

As you can see on my screenshot we've made a stab up to 34k which coincides with the pink descending resistance line. If we clear and retest that pink line, realistically the next move up would be 37-40k at the top of the range. WOOOHOO!

A lot still needs to happen, we haven't quite tested the 33.3k yellow line that was previously resistance to flip it into support. IMO if we do that it could give us the juice to boost above. It appears the 31.6k previous resistance has been flipped and we are in good shape.

What I'm looking for is a strong volume bounce retest from this lower range once more to give us a solid launchpad to attempt back up.

MACRO things are still shakey and we are not safe until we are 40k+ closing dailies/weeklies. Currently if we close our daily candle above 33k it lends credence to the 28k stab down as a final shakeout/max pain/spring/capitulation wick.

STAY STRONG! It ain't over until it's over. Risk assess accordingly and use your brain not your heart to make decisions. Do not violate your rules to cut corners thinking you'll regain your losses overnight.

- Warhead

Good morning Grasshoppers!

BTC is currently trending in the bottom of the 31k-41k range that it has been in since the May structure collapse.

On the 4hr you can see BTC has formed a symmetrical triangle on a significant scale that attempted a breakup but was rejected back down into the formation.

We have now survived the weekend, grats to those that navigated accordingly. Now the big question - DO WE DROP or DO WE POP?

This is the highest risk/reward situation you could enter. With the FUD from China and the death cross some people are very bearish. Whereas some are looking at this as a tremendous buying opportunity in order to buy BTC exactly 50% from its ATH's to contribute to the long term HODL bags. That's like buying BTC at 10k when it was consolidating prior to attempting its 20k previous ATH. Not bad long term!

If HODL bag is your jam, go nuts and DCA in. If you are looking to trade this, you may do well. Just include a stop loss as you will smash your head into the wall if you buy this and it falls down into the 20s going into the weekend. The stock market is looking shaky and definitely correlates price action/market sentiment/psychology.

HOPIUM CHECK - It's Monday, we've had 5-6 daily red candles in a row, bottom of range, volatility returning, whole week ahead of us before the next weekend. We could hover down here before rallying back up over the course of the weekend before retracing for typical end of week/end of month dip.

What's your plan? Are you buying this dip?

- Warhead

Greetings Young Grasshoppers! Sunday Night BTC update!
Pink lines are immediate concern.

Last night we were consolidating within a shorter term symmetrical triangle. We discussed it breaking down which it did. The measured move was to 33.4k and once we reached that after the dramatic fall it resulted in a beautiful 7-8% bounce on BTC today that gave some life and hopium back to the market. Pay attention to which alts bounced and how hard/if they bounced at all. Most alts are operating on a 1:1 Bitcoin pump % scale now instead of them rallying major numbers at a 1:3% ratio like before.

Given the fact that there were 5 red DAILY candles in a row we were overdue for some relief.

Yesterday's daily closed at 35.4k which is great and a strong rejection of the lower levels. Problem is, we are losing some strength and much like last weekend... pump during the morning and dump during the evening. IF volume continues to die off as people take profits from today's rally, there is a chance we attempt down to the 33.4k area again from yesterday.

What could be happening is we may be putting in a series of higher lows dating back to the 30k drop May 19.

30k > 31k > 31k > 32.4k > 33.4k (yesterday) > ???

What do you think, do we lose it after today's rally and plummet back to the bottom of the range around 31-33k or was that the boost we needed to attempt the higher 30's going into this week with a next higher low of 34k+?!?!

- Warhead

Too good to not share!!! 🤣😅😇

Great example of why it is important to take some days off each week, for example weekends. Your home life is extremely important and its best to only run into this situation when your making money, not when your losing money! Maintain the balance!

Greetings Young Grasshoppers! Saturday Night BTC update!

BTC has had a sideways day ranging between 36.7k on the high side to 34.8k on the low side (symmetrical triangle forming low term time frame).

In this chart, you can see that the volume bars at the bottom are slowly trending downwards. This will lead to an expected volatility surge sometime overnight (red line area). This coincides with the resolution area of this pink triangle. If the bias remains negative, expect a break down below 34.8k with 32.4k or 31.4k (below 2 yellow lines) as our expected bounce areas. Upside resolution would have to close above 38.2k for continuation up to fight the 41k battle.

Last weekend both Saturday and Sunday had a daytime rally before going sideways/down in the evening. We haven't seen a rally today at all. Just sideways.

Don't forget, our current existing and tested range is 31k-41k. We currently sit at 35.4k. Middle of range. I would not be buying anything in the middle of this range as IMO we are just likely to go down as up. ENTRIES ARE EVERYTHING. Especially in a down trend.

Whenever you even consider buying an ALT over the next few days or weeks... CHECK THE BTC PAIR!!! They are all getting slaughtered. In most cases you will be paid better to buy and hold BTC rather than alts. Dominance will soar with any BTC pumps.

Enjoy the sidelines, cash out some profits IRL, have a great Sunday tomorrow regardless of how the charts behave. ENJOY YOUR WEEKENDS. Don't fear them because your over exposed. We need to close a 12hr/daily above 39k to be HODLing away into the sunset again. Until then, eat some popcorn.

What do you think will happen? Pump or Pain?

-Warhead

Gooooood evening trader friends!

BTC broke down from its uptrend formed over the past week when it fell below the pink line (38.3k). Since then we have been working our way down testing to see which support can hold us for a bounce. We've just bounced off 34.8k but if BTC fails to get back to 39k+ region it is simply a lower high and downtrend continues.

The next yellow lines below would be next likely bounce areas at 32.4k and 31.4k which you can be sure will be tense times.

As BTC continues to range the sat value of your favourite alts is likely bleeding away slowly. Every time BTC rallies and retraces alts will continue to get chopped up and the market will lose faith in alts as a safe haven for their money. The next phase of the cycle begins.

BTC will draw back all of the energy and volume going into alts in order for it to thrive again in the upcoming weeks. We could see more downside as it is now THE WEEKEND... and you know what a wild card that could be.

Trade responsibly, right now I am not trading alts at all and am only holding BTC. Even that looks sketchy mid-term. Previously BTC has ranged 31k to now 41k and we aren't quite back at the bottom of the range yet. Be careful out there PATIENCE IS A VIRTUE.