05/01/2026
This week is all about inflation prints in Europe and a Friday jobs/wages super-window that can reprice rate cuts in a hurry. If you trade FX, rates, or index risk, expect the cleanest moves when the data clusters hit — not in the “in-between” hours.
What’s on the tape:
Tue 10:15 AM (EUR): ECB Cipollone speech (locked) → pure headline risk. Any hint on inflation persistence or cut timing can whip EUR + Bunds.
Tue 3:00 PM (EUR): CPI/HICP prelim → first big EUR volatility pocket. Hotter-than-expected inflation = more hawkish pricing, EUR bid, front-end Bund yields up.
Wed 12:00 PM (EUR): Core HICP + HICP cluster → the “ECB lens” print. Core is the stickiness check; a surprise here typically drives EURUSD + the 2Y Bund more than anything else midweek.
Wed 3:15 PM & 5:00 PM (USD): ADP + ISM Services → can reshape positioning into Friday (USD/yields move first, equities follow).
Fri 3:30 PM: Main event → Canada jobs + US NFP + wages all at once. This is the week’s peak volatility: USDCAD, DXY, UST yields can all gap.
Strong jobs / hotter wages → hawkish repricing → yields up, USD bid, risk can wobble.
Weak jobs / softer wages → dovish repricing → yields down, risk relief, USD/CAD can soften.
If you’re planning trades, the highest-probability action is around:
✅ Tue 3:00 PM
✅ Wed 12:00 PM
✅ Fri 3:30 PM
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