Aus Weather Guy, 1 24 Mile Ck (2026)

09/04/2026

TC Maila On The Move 09/Apr.
Severe TC Maila is now a cat 3 system (sub 200kmph winds) , and after touching up the Solomon Islands, she heads into the Coral sea, eye set on the NE QLD coast, well at least depending on which met agency you ask at least.
Just a quick one today folks, Maila is on a slow deterioration phase as she heads towards a less favourable environment (wind shear basically) but we need some model tightening right now, as confidence isn’t quite where we thought it would be.
We have varied scenarios which give a span of crossing and intensity variation due to the wind sheer and steering flow situation before her.
For that reason we will sit on our predictions for the night and check back in tomorrow .
AWG

07/04/2026

TC Maila Cooks Up A Storm 08/Apr
*NE QLD on Watch *
Severe TC Maila is pushing on from the Solomon Sea and heading into the Coral Sea, reaching Cat 5 intensity overnight, and quite the large sized storm for April aswell.
Maila is slow , but showing signs of shifting more SW , and aiming for a QLD crossing late weekend or coming week.
Folks I held off an update last night intentionally as winds and environment looked a bit sketchy and unsettled. And this mornings tracking runs in the models has proven for good reason with some now indicating a further south crossing is back on the cards.
Now I need to stress the models are split between an area close to Townsville and to the north just south of the Cape where TC Narelle crossed the other week. We won’t get ahead of ourselves just to be prepared and monitor .
Also food for thought with a further south crossing, it also usually brings large amounts of tail trailing rainfall that go even further south than the systems core, so all the way to Rocky basically if Maila crosses closer to to Townsville.
Will continue to monitor this one closely as her steering flow isn’t 100% settled all the way through to expected landfall, remember Cat 5 systems are powerful enough to influence the winds around them, Maila should drop to Cat 4 later today and for the remainder of her journey, well, more on that to come.
AWG

05/04/2026

Tropical Low/s (37U Maila) Watch 5/Apr
Grab a cuppa It’s Sunday and a bit to cover weather watchers, apologies planned to have this out earlier .
TC Maila (37U) is currently churning around in the Solomon sea as a Cat 2 and intensifying system, just slightly outside of our region of responsibility, but that is likely to change as she is expected to drift SSW towards QLD during the week.
Developing low 38U is going to likewise drift SSE during the week and move into the NW region of responsibility during the week, whether it develops enough or interacts with the NW coast, is becoming less likely with fewer model runs supporting it with every passing hour.
Now you may have heard some squawks that ElNino maybe on the cards later this year for Aus, as the weak LaNina we had during Summer quickly dissipates. We won’t get into the details of how ElNino and LaNina works in the Pacific today, needless to say it impacts much of Australia’s weather.

For now, I just want folks unfamiliar to it, to think about it as the general ocean surface temp across the Pacific , coupled with the prevailing trade winds direction pushing weather a certain direction. In other words warm surface waters being blown towards Aus usually results in LaNina, the opposite direction is an ElNino. If neither direction ,then Neutral.
The Indian Ocean is similar (Dipole positive and negative) and we will discuss this soon as well, but what I want to press on everybody today, is the ElNino’s of the two oceans that drive our weather don’t always correlate to drought or high rainfall, as they predictably did in recent geological history. That makes climate forecasts a nightmare, and can often be wrong.
Ok back to our systems, so not much has changed for the two, TC Maila and 38U . The QLD impact potential this coming weekend is more substantial for Nth QLD and the Gulf of Carpentaria than the NW so residents in far North QLD to stay vigilant for a couple more weeks yet, rainfall of course in NE QLD will peak also.

Now 38U, there is NW cloudband potential with this one, from what we like to call the Atmospheric ‘Pipe & Connect’ effect for early next week. If 38U and a passing cold front get close enough to eachother, more importantly time in with eachother, then a rain event through WA could take place, something April and May are renowned for.
I think our Pilbara and Gascoyne friends can breathe a solid sigh of relief , I don’t think 38U is going to produce much for WA at this rate with the winds doing what they are doing , but plenty of time for that to change through the week.
AWG

03/04/2026

One Last Roll of The Dice RD2 🌀 3/Apr
Tropical Low/s Watch
We enter the final month of the 2025-26 cyclone season , and as always our wildcard month is giving us reason to doubt that Narelle was the final breath .
Alright folks, our weather watcher caps remain on as some of the global modelling is showing two tropical disturbances to emerge in both offshore NW and NE locations. We probably got a tad more confidence in the NE system than the west, but they are both credible forecast signals none the less.
Ok, so timelines and crossing potential. Well we are looking at both potentials forming and being located offshore in the Coral Sea and Indian Ocean or Timor Sea around the 9-11th so we have a few days still to go before any accurate info can be expanded on, but I’ll give you my best thoughts for now….
With wind patterns beginning their switch , which basically means the cooler westerlies start to shift north towards southern Aus and the northerlies begin easing over the tropics and reversing back towards the Northern Hemisphere.
With what we can see in say the 2 week window, is the NW system potential would be pretty well fighting against the subtropical ridge winds, and I dare say it will probably retreat/be pushed north towards Indo, or even drift west into no man’s land . But… if it can separate from the trough and move close enough to the Pilbara coast as a cut off tropical low , then coastal interaction as a low or cyclone would increase , maybe even a NW cloud band being possible.
The QLD potential is higher and the position with the subtropical winds in the Pacific, meaning despite the alarmist posts, yes this system could cross the coast north of Mackay/Yeppoon , more likely closer to Cairns or even further north at this stage next weekend-ish, with cyclone favouring winds on the cards currently .
Tropical low/s watch issued, we will be discussing the El Niño potential on Sunday evening along with an update .
AWG

27/03/2026

Narelle Has Met Her Maker 28/Mar
Ex TC Narelle, now returns back to low intensity as the high pressure wall of winds over Central Aus finally knocked the beast off her feet, after what has been quite the epic journey from East to West to South.
Whilst she is still producing some gales and wind gusts to around 100kmph, she is however quickly deteriorating, located ESE of Northampton and Geraldton and aiming to dissipate over the southern ocean.
Whilst residents in the NW Cape and Northern Gascoyne count the costs of localised damage, some areas have received some much needed rainfall, including the least obvious suspects in the SW of WA.
Narelle certainly was the system of the season, and although failed to reach the pinnacle of cyclone strength , having topped out at Cat 4, she was a very large system, travelled a vast distance, and for the third year year in a row, likely closed out the season with fireworks in the NW.
Whilst there is a top end signature in the longer range, it’s unlikely to turn into another system to monitor but we will monitor it none the less, April can deliver very unusual weather in the tropics, and the winds haven’t completely switched into dry season mode, certainly not yet…
AWG

27/03/2026

TC Narelle Takes A Dive PM/27 Mar.
Narelle is making tracks through the inland Gascoyne, centrally about 50 km NE of Carnarvon as a severe cat 3 system, packing winds up to 185kmph still, but deteriorating fairly rapidly as she heads towards unfavourable territory.
Ok folks in the Gascoyne and Mid west, hunker down, it’s your turn, Narelle is downgrading as expected, but still packing plenty of destructive punch as she makes way over crops and crops of Bananas and the infamous red dirt floodway known as the Gascoyne river. It’s going to be a pretty rough next few hours as she moves over head.
She will quickly turn her attention further south overnight before running into drier walls of wind shear along the subtropical ridge where cyclones go to die. , This is where she really starts to tilt and lean from the wind shear to the east, forcing the remaining cyclonic winds to her eastern quadrants (generally away from the coast) as she reaches Geraldton.
Will take the sting out of her arrival to this area by morning as a tilted cat 1-2, but 100kmph+ winds still expected inland to Mt Magnet, gales possible for Gero and Northampton, will see how she fares over night.
I’ve annotated her structure behaviour on an image for those interested.
The high pressure cell over central Aus is helping to direct her SSE away from the SW of WA, along with the normal belt of westerly winds , but rain should still reach these areas too, just for good Autumn measure, see earlier post for rainfall map if interested.
Final updates tomorrow, Narelle has been at it for a while now….
AWG

26/03/2026

Narelle Reaches The Cape AM 27/Mar.
TC Narelle has maintained her Cat 4 intensity overnight as she turned her attention towards the NW Cape and Ningaloo region. She is still producing winds up to 260kmph , her eye is quite distinct and large just 30km west of Exmouth on her SSW heading.
Ok folks in the NW Cape region, far west Pilbara and northern Gascoyne, she has arrived, and as we have stated a few times now, she is a beast, one of the larger cyclones we have seen in some time and almost matched in maximum intensity. Small comfort I know, that she hasn’t reached Cat 5 strength to go with her size.
Try take comfort in the fact that most homes and businesses in this neck of the woods have been through a few decent cyclones in their time, it will be over before we know it, especially if this is your first cyclone, can be a very daunting time.
200kmph or so, destructive wind gusts are pelting the Cape, Exmouth and surrounding stations currently, with gales still reaching as far back inland as Pannawonica. This will be today’s theme as she heads southwards, over the top of Coral Bay and then onto Carnarvon. Probably still clinging to cat 3 by the time she reaches Banana town late this afternoon.
As she begins her swing SSE later today and speeds up, the deterioration phase will be pretty rapid, but given her size and strength, the impacts will continue all the way to around the Geraldton latitude , with strongest winds concentrated to her Eastern quadrants (inland from the coast) as I mentioned yesterday.
This should ease some of the impact by the time she reaches Northampton and Geraldton by tomorrow morning as a cat 1-2 with wind gusts in the 100kmph+ persisting. Noting she has already stirred up the atmosphere over the Southern half of WA and out to sea, so rainfall is expected to pickup as she edges south.
Catch you later for the PM update.
AWG

26/03/2026

Narelle Turning It On PM 26/Mar.
TC Narelle, a large and powerful system, has begun to really crank it up as she moves adjacent to the West Pilbara coast as a severe cat 4, producing winds between 180-260kmph on a SW heading about 230km NNE of Exmouth, and pretty well headed in that direction also.
Ok folks in the far west Pilbara and Gascoyne, it starts to get a tad real from here on in as she intensifies through a zone that isn’t even overly favourable. But given her sheer size, she has shrugged off some cross shear winds, linked to her steering that she is about to undertake and move move more SSW.
She really does continue to show her prowess as the system of the season, yet another late March showdown in the NW, 3 years in a row now.
It’s been a rough affair continuing west of Hedland today, and as Karratha and surrounds cop the outer core gales, the system has moved west towards Onslow, and the NW cape for tonight. Barrow as per normal has been copping a good old fashion whack.
Now, Narelle has shown she is capable of pushing all limits, so cat 5 overnight is not out of the question but she should remain a 4 from what the data is showing. Regardless the destructive wind gusts around 270kmph are expected, and will be pretty well covering the NW cape and into the Gascoyne through till tomorrow night as she makes way down the Ningaloo and Gascoyne coast as her landfall target.
Now she will deteriorate pretty quickly as she moves through the Gascoyne region, direct impacts as a cat 2-3 are likely for Carnarvon (~200 kmph wind gusts possible). Then, a fairly disorganised deteriorating cyclone all the way down to the mid west coast near Shark Bay and Geraldton during Friday night into Saturday (100-150kmph or so gusts) , but confined to the eastern quadrant , which will be inland from that part of the coast.
It’s time to hunker down for folks between Coral Bay and Exmouth then east to Onslow, the effects will linger in the Karratha , Barrow I, and surrounding towns into tonight, and ease a bit later. Enjoy the last of the rain, might be a while before some more falls.
Catch you in the morning.
AWG

25/03/2026

TC Narelle Continues To Churn 26/Mar
Narelle edging towards severe cat 4 intensity for the second time in her long voyage, as some light cross winds overnight slowed her development off the Pilbara coast a tad. She is producing 160-220kmph winds and remains locked in on her WSW track about 240km off the coast between Hedland and Karratha.
Alrighty folks, not much has changed, Narelle is huge, and that reach has been telling with gale strength wind gusts sweeping through the Pilbara east coast in Hedland (80kmph or so) .This will likely rise through the west Pilbara today, in fact already seeing this on the Dampier data.
Rain spirals have been kissing the coast, so a few areas screaming for rain have been getting a few welcome drops as we have been discussing (the hit and miss sections of a cyclone rain spiral reach) . That will continue today, but easing in the east.
Now tracking and intensity hasn’t wavered too much since yesterday, with very dominant steering winds to date, and that doesn’t look to change. The steering flow across most of the altitude that is impacting her structure is moving in the same direction, so that means a SSW track should begin later today.
There is some increasing wind shear (I’ve attached this mornings chart for those cross winds) which may keep her from reaching cat 5 thresholds. But it may not be enough to restrict her from reaching 4, as she is moving relatively in the same direction, and that means she will just get bumped around without losing too much power. It’s why tracking hasn’t changed too much (easy for models to predict)
Crossing points as a severe 3-4 are still the favoured outcomes, with a split between the NW cape and the northern Gascoyne , but steering winds should carry her southwards adjacent to the mid west coast and deteriorating. We will follow up on this later today with new charts. I’m still 50/50, slightly leaning towards the NW cape.
AWG

25/03/2026

TC Narelle Turns Up The Heat 25/Mar
Narelle has predictably reached severe cat 3 this evening as she chugs along in a pretty favourable environment, and it’s likely to stay this way overnight. With a light period of higher altitude cross winds the only question mark to her not reaching cat 4 by dawn, might just hold her to a 3 for the time being.
She is now producing those 120-170kmph winds again and on the rise and remains in a WSW tracking hold, 270km due north out to sea from Hedland. Now Narelle is larger than usual and this is why the gale range risk extends to the Pilbara coast, whereas most of these offshore scenarios wouldn’t produce the type of warning. It’s a risk not a guarantee but it will still be blowy regardless,
As a result of her size and reach, gales up to 100kmph possible in the Hedland area overnight, extending to Whim Creek, PT Sampson and Dampier into the morning, with dare I say it, possible destructive wind gusts by morning for these areas as well (excludes Hedland) . This trend will continue all the way to the NW cape by tomorrow night provided she reaches cat 4 intensity and doesn’t wobble further offshore.
Ok tracking is getting a tad easier at this point with fairly predictable steering winds as a severe cyclone. Almost every model surveyed has her cornering over or just to the west of the NW cape during Friday/night and heading south to the Gascoyne, but impacts as a deteriorating cyclone/low could reach as far south as Geraldton by Saturday.
Now it’s important to note that Narelle will be a severe system likely by the time she crosses the coast, residents between Exmouth and Denham need to be ready for a pretty gnarly impact, but of course not panic. Secure those loose items outside, and we will ride this thing all the way in as we always do. The exact crossing isn’t set in stone, and 50km can make a massive difference in the impacts, it’s a massive stretch of coastline.
Catch you in the morning for the latest.
Some tracking overlays for your perusal attached, very consistent for a change.
AWG

25/03/2026

Narelle Turns It up a Notch 25/Mar.
Narelle reaches cyclone intensity (cat 1) once more as she moves out off the West Kimberley coast from Beagle Bay, located about 380km NNE from Hedland , 250km west of Broome on a WSW trajectory at about 23kmph.
We will get into tracking a tad more in this evenings update folks, but for now we need to discuss the wind and rain potential , I know there are plenty of eager eyes and ears about how this will play out over the coming days.
Whilst Narelle is still pushing the cat1-2 intensity currently, she should become a severe cat 3 for the third time by tonight and located due north of Hedland. By later today the risk of gales exceeding 80kmph begins to present for the coast between Degrey and Dampier as she strengthens. Damaging gusts over 110kmph can’t be ruled out out for the coast between Pt Sampson and Mardie either.
Sea state of course will be elevated and some decent swells will start to arrive not long after the winds pick up. See swell image for later today, getting some mixed predictions but should peak tonight/tomorrow at several meters , and then move west from Hedland along with Narelle’s movements.
This will extend to Exmouth and possibly Onslow by tomorrow, but as I mentioned, earlier we will discuss the tracking in some more detail tonight once those updated charts come through, combining fresh satellite data and real time modelling. Plus some local knowledge/gut feel just for good measure.
Rainfall, well it’s going to very close for coastal areas today and tonight, with rain spirals right on the fringe of reaching the coast, coupled with some convergence potential (thunderstorm risk) so we will see how that plays out, as these scenarios are always hit and miss but the potential is there, cross those little fingers and toes.
Catch you for the PM update

24/03/2026

Narelle Prepares To Move Offshore 24/Mar
Narelle as expected has dropped back to tropical low intensity, but now ready to dip her toes over open water once more, and should quickly reach cyclone intensity overnight once more.
Now we have some interesting information for NW residents this evening with some better data for Narellle in terms of her outer wind and rain reach during her passage WSW adjacent to the Pilbara coast.
Before we go through that, Beagle Bay and coastal communities to the north of Broome, may see some gales and periods of heavy rain form overnight as Narelle intensifies , but this would be short.
Over the next couple of days as Narelle rolls the coast, the outer gale reach may in fact reach the Pilbara Coast between 80 mile to Dampier, that includes some outer rain spirals as some modelling is showing. It will be hit and miss though I won’t lie.

Offshore Pilbara is going to be pretty rough, some swell inbound for the boarders too, Ports will also need to monitor the conditions pretty closely too, especially if she can reach cat 3 by late tomorrow when due north of Hedland.
The gale strength reach pretty much extends the more powerful she becomes, and that includes further west to Dampier into Thursday which should see cat 4-5 thresholds reached by then.
Ok, will just touch on the longer range, which for most modelling has stayed firm the last couple of days, and that puts the trajectory cone roughly between Onslow and west offshore from the NW Cape. Take the middle ground and a crossing over the NW Cape or Gascoyne late Fri or Sat is what most are estimating .
Personally, still a tad uneasy with the more precise crossing and strength, want to see some more chart data tomorrow, but for now residents within the cone of uncertainty for late week should already have done their backyard securing where possible.

Rainfall and tracking for two reliable models attached.

AWG

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