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Pakistan’s food security problem
The year 2021 saw Pakistan step into the limelight and has host World Environment Day
(WED) under the banner of ‘Ecosystem Restoration’. According to the Global Climate
Risk Index Report of 2020, Pakistan is the fifth most vulnerable country on this front;
facing numerous climate change challenges which are embedded in its demographic and
geographic make-up. The consequences of which are already evident in changing
weather patterns that have resulted in rising temperatures, melting glaciers, off-season
rainfall and hailstorms, and degradation of the ecosystem. In addition, there are other
factors like depleting water reservoirs and an increase in water losses, which are
contributing to changing crop patterns in the agricultural sector which trigger the threat of
food security in the country.
Food security, as defined by the United Nations’ Committee on World Food Security,
means that all people, at all times, have physical, social, and economic access to
sufficient, safe, and nutritious food that meets their food preferences and dietary needs
for an active and healthy life. Pakistan’s government is trying to balance the equation
between the overall challenges of Climate Change, Food Security, and ever-increasing
economic pressures due to the slow GDP growth rate, which was -0.4 percent for FY
2019-20 while per capita income decreased from USD $1,625 to $,1325. However, the
projected GDP growth rate of 3.94 percent for FY 2020-21 is under hot discussion
nowadays.
To multiply the aforementioned effects, the ever-increasing annual population growth rate
of 2 percent has unfortunately also augmented poverty in Pakistan from 4.4 percent to
5.4 percent in FY 2019-20; and has, over time, spread beyond traditional strata. While
the Covid-19 pandemic has also contributed to the decline of productivity, increase in
unemployment, and decrease in the wages of the lower middle class, Pakistan now faces
food security challenges and has to import major food items like wheat, sugar and edible
oils, including significant quantities of palm oil. According to the Bureau of Statistics
(BoS), the imports of food items during the first 10 months of 2020-21 have crossed $6.9
billion and one of the top commodities was edible oils including palm oil. Pakistan annually
consumes 4.5m tonnes of edible oil worth more than $3.15 bn. It is the second-highest
expense after the import of petroleum products.
Pakistan can only meet 20-30 percent of its edible oil demand from
locally produced oilseeds while the deficit is met through imports, with
palm oil/olein comprising the largest of 34 percent plus share in food
imports
Edible oil is the key ingredient of Pakistani household food consumption, irrespective of
which band the household falls; even the poorest of households derive some part of their
nutrition from using any kind or brand of edible oil including palm oil. However, the
consumer’s awareness regarding health benefits of different kind of oleins remains low.
Pakistan can only meet 20-30 percent of its edible oil demand from locally produced
oilseeds, the deficit of 70-80 percent is met through imports, with palm oil/olein making
the largest chunk of 34 percent plus share in food imports, estimated to be 3.3MMT in
FY2020-21, ie up by 6 percent from the preceding year; making it the third largest importer
of palm oil/oleins. The use of palm oil in Pakistan is mostly for food consumption either in
the form of cooking oil or ghee (vanaspati) and both of these are used in the food industry
for frying. Due to consistent increase in population, high oil consumption, and
low/inconsistent domestic production of other oilseeds the import of palm oil will see
steady growth as evident from yearly increasing rate of 4.5 percent over the last 7-years.
The increasing growing consumption/demand of edible oils needs to be looked at in more
detail, particularly against the backdrop of divergent views and perceptions tagged to
each one of the edible oils including palm oil. Nowadays the farming of palm oil is being
done in a more modern, sustainable, and environment-friendly manner. Currently, the
Indonesian and Malaysian sources from which Pakistan imports palm oil are regulated
under Indonesian Sustainable Palm Oil (ISPO) & Malaysian Sustainable Palm Oil
(MSPO) frameworks.
Thus, after analysing the demand, supply, and consumption patterns of palm oil, it is
apparent that Pakistan for a long period will have to rely on the import of ISPO & MSPO
certified Palm Oil from Indonesia & Malaysia. On the other hand, amid the harvest of fresh
palm oil crops in both Indonesia and Malaysia the supply side has started recovering
substantially and the international prices of palm oil and palm olein are decreasing
steadily. Therefore, Pakistan should look into the possibilities of signing Preferential
Trade Agreements (PTAs) with the countries of export, to reciprocally boost Pakistan
exports against its food items import potential.
Pakistan has shown its commitment to the restoration of ecosystems in the country with
the world’s most ambitious afforestation efforts by planting millions of trees and
mangroves as well as creating an Ecosystem Restoration Fund. But the country is also
required to adopt a realistic approach and a balanced outlook between climate change
challenges and its local production of food items. Therefore, it is the call of the hour to
develop a long-term sustainable ‘Food Security Plan’ with special focus on the import of
edible oils. It is apparent from the current market scenario that a sustainable palm oil
supply chain will always be the key element for food security of Pakistan at an affordable
cost. In fact, as a major consuming country, Pakistan could also consider to share and
discuss the existing concerns on promotion of sustainable palm oil certified, especially
under the MSPO and ISPO certification frameworks, in the overall supply chain with the
main producing countries like Indonesia and Malaysia for their support and suggestions.
SOURCE: Daily Times
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