Brian Young's Principles of Macroeconomics

Here's the new Fed dot plot

FOMC keeps rates unchanged; implies rate hike before year's end.

http://www.businessinsider.com/fed-dot-plot-september-2016-2016-9

Here's the new Fed dot plot The chart shows where the members of the FOMC think interest rates are going.

Maybe a computer could replace the Fed’s Janet Yellen?

Rules v. Discretion:

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/maybe-a-computer-could-replace-the-feds-janet-yellen-2016-09-15

Maybe a computer could replace the Fed’s Janet Yellen? That way, monetary rules would finally be followed, says Caroline Baum.

Economy adds 151,000 new jobs in August

August labor market report mediocre at best, NFP +151,00, U3 and LFPR unchanged at 4.9% and 62.8%, respectively. The average workweek for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls decreased by 0.1 hour to 34.3 hours in August (not good!). Average hourly earnings up 2.4% year-over-year.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/economy-adds-151000-new-jobs-in-august-2016-09-02

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

Probability of rate hike at September 21st FOMC meeting falls to 21%.

Economy adds 151,000 new jobs in August The pace of hiring in the U.S. slowed sharply in August as the economy added just 151,000 jobs, a smaller than expected increase that may prompt the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates at current low levels until after the presidential election.

The central bank that cried wolf? Talk of higher U.S. interest rates is often just that

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-central-bank-that-cried-wolf-talk-of-higher-us-interest-rates-is-often-just-that-2016-08-17

The central bank that cried wolf? Talk of higher U.S. interest rates is often just that Just words? The Federal Reserve has been on the cusp of rate hikes several times since 2013 — recall the famous taper tantrum — and it seemed on the verge of acting just last spring before backing off.

Joseph Stiglitz on Brexit, Europe's long cycle of crisis, and why German economics is different

http://qz.com/744854/joseph-stiglitz-euro-future-of-europe-book/

Joseph Stiglitz on Brexit, Europe's long cycle of crisis, and why German economics is different The Nobel prize winner explains how ideology sometimes masquerades as economics.

Annotated chart of weekly initial jobless claims streak.

Weekly initial jobless claims remain under 300,000 for 74 continuous weeks.

http://thearorareport.com/chart-weekly-initial-jobless-claims-streak

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/investors-should-ignore-the-jobs-number-and-pay-attention-to-this-74-week-streak-2016-08-05

Annotated chart of weekly initial jobless claims streak. CHECK OUT OUR UNRIVALED PERFORMANCE

10 Fun Federal Reserve Facts | Bankrate.com

These facts don't seem all that fun to me, but I'll let you be the judge.

http://www.bankrate.com/finance/federal-reserve/fun-federal-reserve-facts-1.aspx

10 Fun Federal Reserve Facts | Bankrate.com Guess who was Alan Greenspan's pal? That's just one Fed tidbit you didn't know.

News Release: Gross Domestic Product

Advance estimate of Q2 2016 U.S. real GDP growth 1.2% v. expectation of 2.5% (annualized)

http://bea.gov/newsreleases/national/gdp/gdpnewsrelease.htm

Probability of September 21 rate hike falls to 12%.

News Release: Gross Domestic Product Data on gross domestic product (GDP), personal income/outlays, corporate profits, fixed assets, government receipts/expenditures. Plus interactive national income and product account (NIPA) tables, previously published and supplemental estimates.

www.federalreserve.gov

Today's FOMC statement:

https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/monetary20160727a1.pdf

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in June indicates that the labor market strengthened and that economic activity has been expanding at a moderate rate. Job gains were strong in June following weak growth in May. On balance, payrolls and other labor market indicators point to some increase in labor utilization in recent months. Household spending has been growing strongly but business fixed investment has been soft. Inflation has continued to run below the Committee’s 2 percent longer-run objective, partly reflecting earlier declines in energy prices and in prices of non-energy imports. Market-based measures of inflation compensation remain low; most survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed, on balance, in recent months.

Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee currently expects that, with gradual adjustments in the stance of monetary policy, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace and labor market indicators will strengthen. Inflation is expected to remain low in the near term, in part because of earlier declines in energy prices, but to rise to 2 percent over the medium term as the transitory effects of past declines in energy and import prices dissipate and the labor market strengthens further. Near-term risks to the economic outlook have diminished. The Committee continues to closely monitor inflation indicators and global economic and financial developments.

Against this backdrop, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 1/4 to 1/2 percent. The stance of monetary policy remains accommodative, thereby supporting further improvement in labor market conditions and a return to 2 percent inflation.

In determining the timing and size of future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess realized and expected economic conditions relative to its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments. In light of the current shortfall of inflation from 2 percent, the Committee will carefully monitor actual and expected progress toward its inflation goal. The Committee expects that economic conditions will evolve in a manner that will warrant only gradual increases in the federal funds rate; the federal funds rate is likely to remain, for some time, below levels that are expected to prevail in the longer run. However, the actual path of the federal funds rate will depend on the economic outlook as informed by incoming data.

The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction, and it anticipates doing so until normalization of the level of the federal funds rate is well under way. This policy, by keeping the Committee’s holdings of longer-term securities at sizable levels, should help maintain accommodative financial conditions.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Janet L. Yellen, Chair; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Lael Brainard; James Bullard; Stanley Fischer; Loretta J. Mester; Jerome H. Powell; Eric Rosengren; and Daniel K. Tarullo. Voting against the action was Esther L. George, who preferred at this meeting to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to ½ to 3/4 percent.

www.federalreserve.gov

IMF seeks ‘urgent’ response to stagnating global economy

MUSCAT, Oman — Painting a dark outlook for the global economy, the International Monetary Fund on Thursday issued an “urgent” call for the world’s largest economies to roll out more growth-boosting policies.

The IMF said central banks need to maintain their easy-money policies and the Group of 20 largest economies must prepare contingency plans should a stagnating outlook turn into a downturn.

“Policy makers should stand ready to act more aggressively should the impact of financial market turbulence and higher uncertainty threaten to materially weaken the global outlook,” the IMF said in a briefing written for the G-20 ahead of a group meeting of finance officials later this week in China.

“A coordinated use of fiscal space would be beneficial should the global outlook weaken materially,” the IMF said.

But U.S. Treasury Secretary Jacob Lew, jetting to the meeting late Thursday, said such a crisis response isn’t necessary.

“I don’t think this is a moment that calls for the kind of coordinated action that occurred during the ‘great recession’ in 2008 and 2009,” Lew said. “It really is a moment where we each need to do what we can to ensure that where growth is soft it gets stronger, and that prospects for the medium- and long-term are improved.”

Remember Smoot-Hawley: America's last trade war worsened Great Depression

http://money.cnn.com/2016/07/07/news/economy/trump-trade-smoot-hawley/index.html?iid=EL

Remember Smoot-Hawley: America's last trade war worsened Great Depression America's last major trade war worsened the Great Depression. The Smoot-Hawley Act is a cautionary tale during the 2016 election.

Venezuela’s Inflation Is Set to Top 1,600% Next Year

I guess you can't get a Big Mac for 66 cents any longer.

http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2016/07/18/venezuelas-inflation-is-set-to-top-1600-next-year/

Venezuela’s Inflation Is Set to Top 1,600% Next Year While most advanced economies struggle to lift inflation, none would want Venezuela's situation: Consumer-price inflation is forecast to hit 480% this year and top 1,640% in 2017.

News from The Associated Press

White House: Budget deficit to rise to $600B

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/US_BUDGET_DEFICIT?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2016-07-15-10-23-46

News from The Associated Press WASHINGTON (AP) -- The White House on Friday predicted that the government's budget deficit for the soon-to-end fiscal year will hit $600 billion, an increase of $162 billion over last year's tally and a reversal of a steady trend of large but improving deficits on President Barack Obama's watch.

10-year Treasury yield hits record low

https://next.ft.com/content/427a0979-1959-3010-941c-0433ef6c2ee7

10-year Treasury yield hits record low Another one bites the dust. The 10-year US Treasury yield has become the latest to hit a record low, touching 1.378 per cent as the global government bond rally ploughs on to new extremes.

Brexit: NIKKEI 225 (Japan) down eight percent.

Brexit: David Cameron to quit after UK votes to leave EU - BBC News

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-36615028

Brexit: David Cameron to quit after UK votes to leave EU - BBC News Prime Minister David Cameron is to step down by October after the UK voted to leave the European Union.

B*R*E*X*I*T*!*!*!

Employment Situation Summary

Wow!! Lousy labor market report this morning! The civilian labor force shrunk by a whopping 458,000 to 158,466,000 while the labor force participation rate fell 0.2 percentage point to 62.6% reversing an upward trend in the LFPR which began last fall. Only 38,000 jobs were added during May; this is the worst number in six years and substantially below economists' expectations of 160,000 to 185,000 jobs added. The unemployment rate U3 fell 0.3% to 4.7% but this was due to the losses in labor force participation, not job gains. The broadest measure of unemployment, U6, remained unchanged at 9.7%. Average weekly hours remained unchanged from April at 34.4 while average hourly earnings climbed 5 cents to $25.59. Average hourly earnings are up 2.5% from a year ago. The probability of a Fed rate increase at the June 15th FOMC meeting has dropped to near zero while the probability of a rate increase at the July 27th meeting fell to 36%. Equity markets took a tumble on the poor jobs data while Treasury yields fell with the 10-year losing about ten basis points to 1.7%

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

Employment Situation Summary Freedom of Information Act | Privacy & Security Statement | Disclaimers | Customer Survey | Important Web Site Notices

Discussion on the Federal Reserve

Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen and former Federal Reserve Chairs Ben Bernanke, Alan Greenspan, and Paul Volcker spoke with CNN’s Fareed Zakaria about their approach to decision making during their time at the central bank.

http://www.c-span.org/video/?407870-1/discussion-federal-reserve

Discussion on the Federal Reserve Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen and former Fed Chairs Ben Bernanke, Alan Greenspan and Paul Volcker sit down with CNN's Fareed Zakaria to discuss their approach to decision making during their…

Live Music

http://www.cactusjacksbar.co/0410.html

Live Music

Employment Situation Summary

Today’s March labor market report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics was better than respectable. The civilian labor force grew by 396,000 to 159,286,000 while the labor force participation rate grew 0.1 percentage point to 63.0%. 215,000 jobs were added during March, beating expectations, but only slightly. The unemployment U3 rose 0.1% to 5.0% but this was due to the gain in labor force participation, not job losses. The broadest measure of unemployment, U6, also rose 0.1% to 9.8%. Average weekly hours remained unchanged from February at 34.4 while average hourly earnings climbed 7 cents to $25.43. Earlier this week, Fed Chair Janet Yellen commented “I still continue to personally believe there’s a little more slack in the labor market than one would surmise by looking at the unemployment rate alone,” indicating that further rate increases by the Fed may be off the table in the near term.

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

Employment Situation Summary Freedom of Information Act | Privacy & Security Statement | Disclaimers | Customer Survey | Important Web Site Notices

U.S. Kept Up Pace of Hiring in March, Adding 215,000 Jobs

The unemployment rate rose to 5 percent, compared with 4.9 percent in February. But that was a positive indication, analysts said, since it was the increase in [labor force] participation that mostly accounted for the increase rather than job losses.

“It’s clearly a strong report across the board, and I was particularly encouraged by the pickup in labor force participation,” said Michelle Meyer, deputy head of United States economics at Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/04/02/business/economy/jobs-report-unemployment-wages.html?_r=0

U.S. Kept Up Pace of Hiring in March, Adding 215,000 Jobs The unemployment rate ticked up slightly, to 5 percent, but wages and participation in the labor market were also higher.

Here’s why the Fed doesn’t know if inflation is a problem

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-why-the-fed-doesnt-know-if-inflation-is-a-problem-2016-03-30

Here’s why the Fed doesn’t know if inflation is a problem Investors and economists both are playing a guessing game about inflation, writes Jeff Reeves.

The Job Market Is Pulling In People Who Didn’t Want To Work Before

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-job-market-is-pulling-in-people-who-didnt-want-to-work-before/

The Job Market Is Pulling In People Who Didn’t Want To Work Before This is In Real Terms, a column analyzing the week in economic news. Comments? Criticisms? Ideas for future columns? Email me or drop a note in the comments. When last month’s jobs report showed a …

What tools does the Fed have left? Part 1: Negative interest rates

http://www.brookings.edu/blogs/ben-bernanke/posts/2016/03/18-negative-interest-rates

What tools does the Fed have left? Part 1: Negative interest rates Ben Bernanke asks whether there are tools left in the Fed's monetary toolbox, with a focus on the costs and benefits of negative interest rates.

Live blog and video of Fed decision and Janet Yellen press conference

MARKETS RALLY AS FED SIGNALS JUST TWO RATE HIKES IN CALENDAR 2016

http://blogs.marketwatch.com/capitolreport/2016/03/16/live-blog-and-video-of-fed-decision-and-janet-yellen-press-conference-3/

Live blog and video of Fed decision and Janet Yellen press conference The Federal Reserve is set to announce its latest interest-rate decision, as well as provide its dot plot and economic forecasts and hold a press conference with Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen. Follow along as MarketWatch live-blogs the proceedings, and watch the Yellen press conference liv…

A huge new discovery in economics: The zero bound *is* absolute, after all

http://www.businessinsider.com/economics-the-zero-bound-is-absolute-after-all-2016-3?r=UK&IR=T

A huge new discovery in economics: The zero bound *is* absolute, after all You can't go below zero.

Markets betting on near-zero interest rates for another decade

https://ca.news.yahoo.com/markets-betting-near-zero-interest-rates-another-decade-141049135--sector.html

Markets betting on near-zero interest rates for another decade World markets may have recovered their poise from a torrid start to the year, but their outlook for global growth and inflation is now so bleak they are betting on developed world interest rates remaining near zero for up to another decade. The idea posits that the world is entering a peculiarly pro…

Leap Year 2016: Why does February have 29 days every four years?

EVERYTHING YOU NEVER WANTED TO KNOW ABOUT FEBRUARY THE 29TH!

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/12177017/Leap-Year-2016-Why-does-February-have-29-days-every-four-years.html

Leap Year 2016: Why does February have 29 days every four years? When is it, why does it happen and everything else you need to know about the leap year in 2016

U.S. Has Record 10th Straight Year Without 3% Growth in GDP

http://www.cnsnews.com/news/article/terence-p-jeffrey/us-has-record-10th-straight-year-without-3-growth-gdp

U.S. Has Record 10th Straight Year Without 3% Growth in GDP (AP Photo/Evan Vucci)(CNSNews.com) - The United States has now gone a record 10 straight years without 3 percent growth in real Gross Domestic Product, according to data released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

The Fed’s interest payments to banks

http://goo.gl/YSN75a

The Fed’s interest payments to banks Ben Bernanke and Don Kohn answer some questions about the Fed’s payments of interest on bank reserves.

01-Arizona March Song

Enjoy the dulcet tones of GCC economics faculty Hannes Kvaran as you celebrate Arizona's 104th statehood day!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ws5dbNx3EVU

Lyrics:
Come to this land of sunshine. To this land where life is young. Where the wide, wide world is waiting, The songs that will now be sung. Where the golden sun is flaming Into warm, white shining day, And the sons of men are blazing Their priceless right of way.

chorus

Come stand beside the rivers Within our valley broad. Stand here with heads uncovered, In the presence of our God! While all around, about us The brave, unconquered band, As guardians and landmarks The giant mountains stand.

chorus

Not alone for gold and silver Is Arizona great. But with graves of heroes sleeping, All the land is consecrate! O, come and live beside us However far ye roam Come and help us build up temples And name those temples "home."

chorus

Sing the song that's in your hearts Sing of the great Southwest, Thank God, for Arizona In splendid sunshine dressed. For thy beauty and thy grandeur, For thy regal robes so sheen We hail thee Arizona Our Goddess and our queen.

01-Arizona March Song The lyrics of "The Arizona March Song" were written by Margaret Rowe Clifford in 1915. The music was composed by Maurice Blumenthal. It was adopted on Februa...

FRED Graph

Real GDP and real potential GDP.

http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/gdp/gdpnewsrelease.htm

FRED Graph Use a formula to modify and combine data series into a single line. For example, invert an exchange rate a by using formula 1/a, or calculate the spread between 2 interest rates a and b by using formula a - b.

91 degrees in February??!! What fresh hell can this be? Or... where is Leonardo DiCaprio now?

WTI Crude Oil closes day at $26.21/bbl

Total Crude Oil and Petroleum Products (Incl. SPR)