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[05/24/14]   Hi everyone,

I will no longer be posting in this page my daily summary. If you still wish to follow it I will still be posting on my own page which you can find here https://www.facebook.com/elli.forex.

So..... I'm not giving up on posting - just not here! :) Please add me to your friends or follow my page if you would still like to read my free daily reports (except Mondays).

Have a great weekend,

Elli.

[05/23/14]   Good morning! Bit of a dodgy week for me this week but I managed to write my report for you today. Have a great weekend :). There will be no report on Monday - it's my birthday :D Elli.

Markets Overnight

Asian markets ended mostly higher yesterday following Wall Street's rally after the FOMC minutes, and Chinese factory data boosting markets, especially the Australian market. The Nikkei rallied to a one week high as exporters were encouraged by the weakening yen after it bounced off a three-and-a-half month low at 100.80 Wednesday night. Financials lead the gains after news that the government controlled Japan Post Insurance Life will increase its investment in local stocks. The ASX ended higher by 1.2% at a one-week high in a third straight session of gains, and the AUD also moved off Wednesday's two and a half week low on the Chinese Factory data news. The HSBC PMI came in at 49.7, better than the 48.1 final reading in April, however it still remains in contraction under the key 50 level. The Nikkei rose more than 2% on the news, and the AUD rallied over a quarter of a US cent on the news. Despite iron ore's continued slide, miners rebounded from the previous day's sharp losses. Chinese shares ended mixed entering negative territory right before the close after trading at a one-week high throughout the session. Property stocks ignored the sector downgrade by Moody's, and gas stocks rose on news that China and Russia have signed a $400 billion gas deal. The Kospi finished up 0.3% but pared gains after reaching their highest levels since December with a rally in blue-chip stocks supporting the gains. Concerns are rising again however today with Thailand and the Ukraine in focus after Thailand's army chief seized control of the government in a bloodless coup.

European markets closed slightly higher overnight after swinging between gains and losses during the session with the mixed economic data. Flash PMI for France came in under the 50 level falling back into contraction at 49.3, causing gains on the CAC 40 to be limited. Germany was able to match last month's figure and the German DAX Index closed up 0.24%. Italian and Spanish shares suffered as traders flag concerns over the European Parliament elections that are being held currently, as the results could undermine some euro zone governments, especially the fragile Italian government. In Greece, if anti-bailout parties gather more seats it may hurt an already fragile coalition and potentially pave the way to national elections, and in Italy, a poor result for Prime Minister Matteo Renzi's party may weaken his push for the swift economic reforms he has promised when he took power. Concerns about Germany's lead on other Euro zone countries are also being raised, and was highlighted by Germany's PMI expanding this month, whereas Italy showed contraction last week with their data. European miners are also heavily exposed to China and rallied on the PMI result.

US markets rose overnight extending yesterday's rally, led by small cap stocks, and a surge in biotech stocks caused the Nasdaq to climb. The Dow rose 0.06%, the S&P rose 0.24% and the Nasdaq rose 0.55%. The S&P is about 10 points away from its record intraday high set on May 13. Housing stocks ranked among the markets biggest outperformers after US existing home sales rose in April and the supply of properties on the market hit the highest level since August 2012. The dollar rose against major currencies as higher bond yields ignited demand for the USD. Gold prices rose with the Fed minutes, but oil prices slid as investors took profits following a rally driven by ongoing violence in Libya. Economic data from the US saw the Markit Economics preliminary manufacturing rise to 56.2 from 55.4 last month. Jobless claims rose last week with more Americans than estimated filing for jobless benefits.

Major news today includes EUR, CAD and USD.

[05/20/14]   Good morning! Late start to the week for me but yesterday was "one of those days"! Watch out for FOMC minutes in the early hours of the morning (AEST) as we could see a bit of volatility if anything unexpected is said in the minutes. Focus is on rates and the what and when the Fed will do with them. Elli.

Markets Overnight

Asian markets ended generally higher yesterday as the BOJ starts their two day policy meeting. Tensions in Bangkok however are causing some concerns with Thailand's army declaring martial law to keep order, but the army have warned that it does not constitute a coup. Keep in mind they have been part of numerous coups since Thailand became a constitutional monarchy. The current crisis has been going on for almost a decade, however the country is now without a proper functioning government and six months of anti-government protests have bought the country to its knees since Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra and nine of her ministers were dismissed on May 7 after a court found them guilty of abuse of power. The BOJ is expected to keep policy unchanged when it emerges from the two day meeting today, however the Q&A afterwards will be the focus. The Nikkei broke a four-day losing streak with the slight weakening in the currency and retailers increased after a Reuters poll showed more companies expect sales to rebound by the end of the year following April's sales tax increase. Shanghai rose slightly rebounding from the previous day's two-month low, and fears were allayed surrounding the huge number of IPO's waiting to be released when the country's securities regulators confirmed that there would be 100 new market listings from June to the end of this year, which was less than most had anticipated. The ASX managed to finish higher after a day of swinging in and out of gains, rising after the RBA said low interest rates were having a desired effect on the economy in the minutes from its latest meeting. The Kospi finished lower falling from the fresh 2014 high made on Monday after data released before the market opened showed that producer prices fell for the 19th straight month in April.

European markets closed lower overnight as investors continue to eye the ECB and upcoming elections. A fall in Vodafone shares caused the FTSE100 to close down 0.62% as revenue fell for the company. Germany's DAX and France's CAC both closed lower, 0.2% and 0.4% lower respectively. German producer prices declined more than expected with the data for April showing factory prices fell 0.1% on the month and 0.9% on the year. Energy prices were cited as the key reason for the declines. April inflation figures in the UK showed that consumer prices rose by 1.8% compared to last year, coming in above expectations and causing a sharp rise in the sterling against the dollar. Shares of Credit Suisse closed up a percent after the bank had been told to pay $1.8 billion in fines after it pleaded guilty to helping Americans evade domestic taxes.

US markets fell overnight after three days of gains on weaker than expected earnings results, and the dollar fell for a fifth straight session against the yen after a persistent fall in US Treasury yields had undermined the dollar. Losses extended late into the session with the Dow finishing down 0.68%, the S&P finishing down 0.5% and the Nasdaq closing down 0.55%. Focus will now turn towards the minutes from the last Federal Reserve meeting due out today, for the timing of rate rises. Comments from the Fed's Philadelphia President Charles Plosser caused equities to fall to session lows after he said the central bank's current taper pace could be too slow if the economy improves as forecast. Over the course of the day, the Aussie Dollar was the biggest mover, falling to a two week low against the dollar as iron ore prices continue to slide.

Major news today includes JPY, GBP, and in the early hours of the morning, USD FOMC meeting minutes are released.

[05/16/14]   Good morning, here's hoping you have a great weekend and I'll see you back on Tuesday. Elli.

Markets Overnight

Asian markets closed mixed yesterday despite the first quarter GDP for Japan coming in above expectations at the fastest pace since the July-September quarter in 2011. The Nikkei lost 0.8% with the dollar-yen falling below the 102 handle to hit a one-week low hitting sentiment. Financials fell on the Japanese market and Sony also dragged announcing that it expects to lose $500 million this coming year due to the struggling TV and PC operations. The BOJ's chief Haruhiko Kuroda spoke later in the day but did not reiterate anything new in his speech. Declines in property shares caused the Shanghai index to lose more than 1% on the day for a third day in a row, to fall to a one-week low, and the ASX closed up 0.2% reversing losses in the afternoon session to end at its highest level in two weeks. The Kospi closed flat in quiet trade after hitting their highest levels so far this year the previous session.

European markets closed lower overnight as GDP data came in under expectations. Italy and Portugal both reported contractions, and Spanish, Italian, Greek and Portuguese stocks all tumbled after the result. Uncertainty now prevails over what the ECB may announce with the prospect of monetary stimulus on the horizon. Greece showed economic activity contracted in the first three months of the year, down 1.1% from the year before, Cypriot contracted by a whopping 4.1% and Italy shrunk 0.5%. Germany however, saw expansion double as a boost in construction gave a lift to the results. Exports were down but imports were up from the previous quarter. All eyes are now on the ECB as the growth data combined with the continuing tensions in the Ukraine caused investors to become wary. Expectations are that the ECB will announce measures against deflation at their next meeting in June. ECB Vice President Vitor Constancio commented saying that the central bank was ready to act if needed, but said there were no distinct signs of deflation in the euro bloc. These comments instantly caused a drop on the Euro, which continued with the results and then staged a turnaround to finish back up where it began the day as a sharp drop in US yields and expectations of the ECB stepping up reversed losses.

US markets finished heavily down with the Dow extending losses into triple digits after disappointing earnings results and weaker than expected economic news weighed on sentiment. The 10-year yield broke below the psychological level of 2.50% for the first time since last October. The Dow closed lower at 1.01%, the S&P down 0.94% and the Nasdaq down 0.76%. The Dow and S&P both posted their biggest daily percentage declines in just over a month. Economic data released during the session was mixed, with US industrial output falling 0.6% at its fastest rate in more than 1 1/2 years in April, whilst initial claims for US jobless benefits hit a seven-year low last week and the Empire State manufacturing index showed strong growth activity in May. Consumer prices ticked up 0.3% in April, as expected, singling some inflation in the economy. Janet Yellen spoke at a small business week but has not introduced anything new after the close of the markets.

Major news today - USD.

[05/15/14]   Morning all! Apologies I didn't get to my daily report yesterday as I had some things come up that prevented me writing it. Have a great day, Elli.

Markets Overnight

Asian markets ended mixed yesterday, but the focus was on Australia with shares declining after the release of the federal budget. Healthcare stocks suffered some of the biggest losses following the deficit sliming budget, whilst CBA rallied 1% after reporting a 16 percent rise in unaudited cash earnings of A$2.2 billion for the third quarter (doesn't surprise me with the fees they charge to customers!!!). Analysts were anticipating a more aggressive budget, and are now expecting the Reserve Bank of Australia to sit on their hands for a while and not raise rates through 2014 or 2015. The ASX opened lower but managed to crawl back some of the losses closing down 0.03%. The Nikkei also closed down 0.14% as investors took profit on Tuesday's 2% rally and the strengthening in the yen weakened sentiment. Data released prior to the open showed wholesale prices rising an annual 4.1%. Shanghai closed lower also with a rally in property stocks unable to push the index into the green after the central bank urged banks to speed up the approvals of home loans. The Yuan hit a one-week high against the dollar after officials said they were determined to reform the country's currency regime following a meeting between U.S. Treasury Secretary Jack Lew and Premier Li Keqiang in Beijing. The Kospi rallied 1.2% ending at a fresh 2014 high, with foreign buying of blue chip stocks causing gains to extend to a second session.

European markets ended mixed also overnight after Reuters reported that the ECB was preparing a package of stimulus options ahead of its policy meeting in June, including cuts in all its interest rates and targeted measures aimed at boosting lending. Typically this sort of information would cause markets to rise with the prospect of higher liquidity in the markets, however investors are unclear as to when and what sort of measures the central bank could announce, hence we did not see this affect. The issues in the Ukraine also keep a lid on markets. In economic news, the final readings of inflation data for both Germany and Spain were released with the harmonized numbers aligning with the flash estimates. Germany came in at 1.1% and Spain came in at 0.3% year on year. UK data showed the economy is on its way to recovery with unemployment falling to its lowest level at 6.8% in over five years, whilst wage growth grew by more than inflation for the first time since 2010. Shortly after this the Bank of England surprised investors by saying it has no plans for near-term monetary tightening, crashing the pound in its wake, saying that Britain's economic recovery remained in its early stages. It also noted a strong bounce-back in the job market and lowered its forecast for unemployment for the next couple of years, but dashed investors' hopes of seeing interest rates rise in the near term.

US markets fell overnight retreating from their record highs hit Tuesday. The Dow fell 0.61%, the S&P fell 0.47% and the Nasdaq fell 0.72%. Both the Dow and S&P retreated from record highs, whilst the 10-year Treasury yield broke below key support, viewed by some as signalling an economic slowdown and a reason to sell riskier assets, according to CNBC. Eyes will now be on economic reports released tomorrow to confirm whether the stalling in the economy was due to the weather or not. Prior to the open, economic data showed wholesale prices increased the most in more than a year in April, with producer prices (PPI) up 0.6% in April, beating expectations, but also showing potential signs that inflation pressures may be increasing. Tensions also remain high in the Ukraine with seven government soldiers killed by pro-Russian rebels in an ambush in an eastern region on Tuesday.

Major news today includes NZD (budget), BOJ, EUR, CAD and USD.

[05/12/14]   Good morning! Hoping all those Mum's out there had a fabulous Mothers Day in Australia on Sunday - I know I did!! It was awesome :).

Markets Overnight

Asian markets closed mostly higher with the ASX and Nikkei the only two to close below the green line. Shanghai outperformed on the day finishing up 2.08% as investors embraced the recent reforms the State Council unveiled in a blueprint of capital market reforms on Friday, including direct bond issuance's for local governments and the removal of some restrictions on financial derivatives. It is anticipated that these reforms could boost market liquidity, and include proposals to open up its stock and bond markets, relax foreign ownership of companies and pursue both inward and outward investment. Still concerning investors is the huge number of IPO's still on the horizon, however Beijing unveiled new rules over the weekend that may be designed to keep more IPOs off the market therefore allaying some of those fears. The Nikkei fell 0,3% after a volatile session and two days of gains. Economic news showing the economy recorded a smaller than expected trade surplus in March caused sentiment to wane. The ASX also fell dragged by mining stocks whilst caution creeps in about today's federal budget which will be the spotlight for the region today. The Kospi gained 0.4% reversing earlier losses to continue into a third day of gains as Samsung Electronics boosted the index with a 4% rise as investors welcomed the news that the chairman Lee Kun-Hee had recovered after suffering a heart attack over the weekend.

European markets closed at six-year highs Monday as the resources sector pulled the FTSEurofirst 300 to its highest level since May 2008, and all other European indexes closed higher as well. New takeover activity and renewed speculation regarding monetary stimulus from the ECB also helped to boost sentiment. The DAX was seen to have the strongest gains, closing up 1.2%. Mining stocks were boosted by the update on market reforms in China. Positive sentiment in US markets also helped boost European markets as the Dow hit an intraday record, having closed at a new high Friday. Greece however closed lower yesterday with the looming elections causing investors to be wary as the radical Syriza party is currently seen leading in the polls. Issues in the Ukraine also hold the gains with uncertainty surrounding the vote held in the eastern city of Donetsk, where 89% of the populace is said to have voted in favour of seceding from Ukraine. The referendum has been dismissed as illegal by Kiev and Western governments, and the West is concerned that the referendum could end in Russia annexing the region as we have already seen in Crimea. More sanctions have been imposed after the vote, with two Crimean companies and 13 more Russian and Ukrainian individuals in focus, however further information on who and what these are will be released on Tuesday. In Italy, estimate-beating results from Italian lenders has reinforced optimism about a recovery in the region, with shares outperforming Germany and France over the past year.

US markets rallied overnight spurred on by strong corporate results and an improving economic outlook. The Dow and S&P both hit record closing highs, with the Dow also hitting an intraday high, closing up 0.68%, the S&P up 0.97% and the Nasdaq up 1.77%. Technology shares that were hit last week rallied back overnight, with Twitter, Yahoo and Facebook all rising. This week sees a lot of data for the US, with retail sales and consumer price reports which will be closely watched for signs that the economy is recovering. Inflation levels will also be closely watched to determine whether they are rising from levels below the Federal Reserve's targets. Crude oil futures rose as investors brace themselves for the possibility of more conflict from the Ukraine, and Saudi Arabia volunteered to supply more crude in the event of a shortage. The US dollar fell against the basket of trading counterparts and the 10-year Treasury note fell in price to push the yield up to 2.6539%.

Major news today includes AUD federal budget, CNY, EUR, USD.

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